Surprisingly low WAR

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Yeah, WAR loves to reward players who happen to be the one good player at their position. Joe Morgan is a perfect example of this. In 1975, he won an MVP after a great season where he hit .327 with a .974 OPS. He had an 11.0 WAR meaning WAR thinks he had one of the greatest seasons ever (19th for WAR among position players ever - ahead of every season in the careers of Ted Williams, Hank Aaron, and Mike Trout). And it's all because he played 2B, a position where two NL starters had an OPS under .600. Morgan had 50 extra base hits in 1975, a fine total that netted him 12th place in total bases. His 50 was a full third fewer than Mike Schmidt's 75 but Schmidt somehow had just 7.7 WAR that year. Morgan had an incredible WAR because his 2B contemporaries all sucked.

Morgan was actually much better in 1976, increasing his extra base hits by 24% while increasing his OPS despite playing 5 fewer games.

His WAR actually went DOWN because of his defense.

I like WAR in general but it has to be viewed with skepticism and put in proper context.

I will say a 2b leading the league in OPS (both of his MVP seasons) cannot be overlooked. That simply didn't happen back then and I feel the WAR accurately represented his value. I honestly feel those seasons are legitimate candidates for all time greatest seasons. He did have 40 less plate appearances in the second season in addition to his fielding being less stellar than the year before. That certainly accounts for a small chunk of possible WAR helping to explain the difference.

Morgan was a much better base runner than Schmidt also. Not just steals, but advancing extra bases and not making outs and not hitting into double plays. That's a very underrated aspect of what adds to WAR, and legitimately adds to someone's value as a player. Schmidt hit into 50% more double plays than Morgan in 1300 less plate appearances.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

I will say a 2b leading the league in OPS (both of his MVP seasons) cannot be overlooked. That simply didn't happen back then and I feel the WAR accurately represented his value. I honestly feel those seasons are legitimate candidates for all time greatest seasons. He did have 40 less plate appearances in the second season in addition to his fielding being less stellar than the year before. That certainly accounts for a small chunk of possible WAR helping to explain the difference.

In a roundabout way, you're agreeing with me. His season adds up to being really impressive because his contemporaries sucked. If you moved him 70 feet to the right defensively, it would be just another in a long list of MVP-caliber seasons. Again, *50* extra base hits. That's just not impressive number. It was a borderline all-time great season - for a 2B. It's not even remotely in the conversation for greatest overall. Better than EVERY season from Ted Williams? Hard disagree.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Tabe

In a roundabout way, you're agreeing with me. His season adds up to being really impressive because his contemporaries sucked. If you moved him 70 feet to the right defensively, it would be just another in a long list of MVP-caliber seasons. Again, *50* extra base hits. That's just not impressive number. It was a borderline all-time great season - for a 2B. It's not even remotely in the conversation for greatest overall. Better than EVERY season from Ted Williams? Hard disagree.

That's because you're still hung up over only the traditional numbers. Morgan hit into a total of (without double checking) 5 double plays in those 2 seasons. He stole about 130 bases at an 85% clip and I imagine he stretched a lot of extra bases as a runner, tagging up going to third on a single etc.

Combine that with gold glove caliber defense (In 1975) at a premium position with excellent range vs Ted whose range was what was hit right at him and what Dom could get to in left field and I imagine that Joe was worth more wins to his team in 1975 than Ted in his best season.

Look at it this way. Ted's OWAR was often higher than his WAR. Joe's only was in the second half of his career (amazingly beginning in 1976 which would explain the drop in his total WAR for what appears to be an offensively superior season)

Morgan's best OWAR seasons, while impressive, don't compare with Ted's best. It's just that there's more than offense to the game.

If you want to discuss the best OFFENSIVE players of all-time might I point you in this direction:

https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=350700

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

That's because you're still hung up over only the traditional numbers. Morgan hit into a total of (without double checking) 5 double plays in those 2 seasons. He stole about 130 bases at an 85% clip and I imagine he stretched a lot of extra bases as a runner, tagging up going to third on a single etc.

Combine that with gold glove caliber defense (In 1975) at a premium position with excellent range vs Ted whose range was what was hit right at him and what Dom could get to in left field and I imagine that Joe was worth more wins to his team in 1975 than Ted in his best season.

Look at it this way. Ted's OWAR was often higher than his WAR. Joe's only was in the second half of his career (amazingly beginning in 1976 which would explain the drop in his total WAR for what appears to be an offensively superior season)

Morgan's best OWAR seasons, while impressive, don't compare with Ted's best. It's just that there's more than offense to the game.

If you want to discuss the best OFFENSIVE players of all-time might I point you in this direction:

https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=350700

Very well stated, Scott.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

That's because you're still hung up over only the traditional numbers. Morgan hit into a total of (without double checking) 5 double plays in those 2 seasons. He stole about 130 bases at an 85% clip and I imagine he stretched a lot of extra bases as a runner, tagging up going to third on a single etc.

Combine that with gold glove caliber defense (In 1975) at a premium position with excellent range vs Ted whose range was what was hit right at him and what Dom could get to in left field and I imagine that Joe was worth more wins to his team in 1975 than Ted in his best season.

Look at it this way. Ted's OWAR was often higher than his WAR. Joe's only was in the second half of his career (amazingly beginning in 1976 which would explain the drop in his total WAR for what appears to be an offensively superior season)

Morgan's best OWAR seasons, while impressive, don't compare with Ted's best. It's just that there's more than offense to the game.

If you want to discuss the best OFFENSIVE players of all-time might I point you in this direction:

https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=350700

I'm not hung up on traditional stats. But extra base hits are waaaaaaaay more valuable than stolen bases. Ted had, for example, 368 total bases in 1949 plus 162 walks. That's 530 bases from the batter's box. Joe had 253 total bases plus 132 walks for 385 total. Give him the 67 steals and he's still nearly 100 behind Ted.

Yes, there's more than offense to the game - but offense and pitching are light years ahead of defense in terms of importance.

Joe had a great year in 1975 (and 76) but, again, 17 homers with a high OBP (.450 or higher) has been done roughly a billion times in baseball history. It's been done more than 20 times since 1949. Looks like 10 times by 2B though Baseball Reference is covering up the results for me. Yeah, what he did was really rare in 1975 - because he was a 2B. We wouldn't be having this conversation if played virtually any other position.