Poll: Final Hammer Price - 1914 BN Babe Ruth vs the 1952 Rosen Topps Mantle

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Ya. Now PSA is lumping in POOR, FAIR, GOOD, AND VG cards all into PSA 1 holders in order to make room for the EXMT cards they're slabbing as 4s. I honestly thought they would have corrected this by now. It's really baffling.

I have heard, and no idea of truth, that they are using machine grading in the first instance on larger subs which I guess grades low because it deducts for trivial specks and the like on vintage; and that some graders don't bother with an independent assessment.

[Yoda]

SGC should be ashamed at giving the BN Babe a 3, particularly with their supposed new grading standards. IMO it should be a 1.5, maybe a 2 on a sunny day. Me thinks there were serious political forces at play when Ruth was in the grading room.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Yoda

SGC should be ashamed at giving the BN Babe a 3, particularly with their supposed new grading standards. IMO it should be a 1.5, maybe a 2 on a sunny day. Me thinks there were serious political forces at play when Ruth was in the grading room.

I am sure Dave had his reasons, but we can only guess what they were.

[mrreality68]

Buy the card not the grade

But someone with the money will be buying the Card with that grade.

And super rare but a 3 will sell more than a lower grade on that same exact card slab

[gunboat82]

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

I wonder what the likelihood is that a major serious bidder may actually represent a group of investors collectively going in on this card, or even a corporation.

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Collectable gets it and tosses it right back into the ol' Collectable25 portfolio.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...ii.htm#ab_006)

https://collectable.com/offerings/ba...sgc-3-buy-out/

[mrreality68]

I am surprised at the mainstream attention. There was even an article in The NY Times about it

As an aside I was looking for the Go Fund Me Page for Leon so he can purchase it and put it in the Net54 Museum but I did not see it

[Schlesinj]

From what I heard, the owner sold a approx 10% interest to the Collectible group and had an option to buy back. It was a $6mm valuation. It happened before Collectible went down.

[Jewish-collector]

I'm thinking Steve Cohen will want to buy it & bring it to display in New York.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Cohen_(businessman)

[parkplace33]

5.5 million as of Monday, November 27. Not much increase since the first day of bidding.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

5.5 million as of Monday, November 27. Not much increase since the first day of bidding.

That's pretty typical. Most of the action (once everyone gets in their initial bids) arrives in the final 24-48 hours. Particularly when you're talking about this price point.

[parkplace33]

5.75 million as of 1100 EST on Sunday.

I am surprised that there wasn’t movement yesterday. Feeling more and more confident that this card will go under the Rosen mantle.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

5.75 million as of 1100 EST on Sunday.

I am surprised that there wasn’t movement yesterday. Feeling more and more confident that this card will go under the Rosen mantle.

I imagine that everyone who will be trying to win it has their first bid in already.

[ClementeFanOh]

At the risk of being viewed as a heretic, I’ll go back to the actual topic (I know, I know, such a horrible thing)…Card sits at 5.75 million with no bids since the 29th of November. I still think it tops the Mick. Trent King

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

I imagine that everyone who will be trying to win it has their first bid in already.

+1 agreed on those high end items everyone gets their initial bid and that waits until extended bidding to make their moves

Many items in this auctions raced to fast strong starts that thought were already at strong full market value. So I wondering if many of them will pop off the charts and just stay as is since it reached its value already

Will be interesting to see on the Ruth and other cards

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

+1 agreed on those high end items everyone gets their initial bid and that waits until extended bidding to make their moves

Many items in this auctions raced to fast strong starts that thought were already at strong full market value. So I wondering if many of them will pop off the charts and just stay as is since it reached its value already

Will be interesting to see on the Ruth and other cards

Definitely should be interesting! I'll be watching because I actually have a chance to win a couple of items in this one

[raulus]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Definitely should be interesting! I'll be watching because I actually have a chance to win a couple of items in this one

Good luck on the Ruth!

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by raulus

Good luck on the Ruth!

LOL not for me unless someone wants to gift me 6 million bucks in the next half hour

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

I imagine that everyone who will be trying to win it has their first bid in already.

True but still no additional bids.

30 minutes until extended, we shall see.

[Jewish-collector]

I still think he might want it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Cohen_(businessman)

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I have heard, and no idea of truth, that they are using machine grading in the first instance on larger subs which I guess grades low because it deducts for trivial specks and the like on vintage; and that some graders don't bother with an independent assessment.

This isn't actually true. It's just a rumor going around Blowout from people who don't understand the capabilities. They're not using Genamint to grade cards at all.

[Snowman]

Another interesting question worth pondering is what would the SGC 9.5 Mantle sell for today if it were on the block?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

This isn't actually true. It's just a rumor going around Blowout from people who don't understand the capabilities. They're not using Genamint to grade cards at all.

Your source?

[raulus]

Welp!

$7.2M, with the juice.

The crash is here!!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

Welp!

$7.2M, with the juice.

The crash is here!!

Let the spin begin.

[MACollector]

I don't think it's a sign of a crash - the estimate of over $10m never made sense to me. Prices are down from 21/22 and the seller paid $6m supposedly to buy it back in 2021. $7.2m isn't bad. Not sure why it would have sold for 2x a price when cards were peak covid heights...

[chadeast]

I thought that not selling the other BN lots was an odd choice (high reserves not met). It seems unlikely that they'll get more in an auction without the star attraction to carry them along. The reserve does help to explain why they were sold in a lot, I think. The seller was not prepared to sell the non-Ruths for what they saw as "low" final bids.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by MACollector

I don't think it's a sign of a crash - the estimate of over $10m never made sense to me. Prices are down from 21/22 and the seller paid $6m supposedly to buy it back in 2021. $7.2m isn't bad. Not sure why it would have sold for 2x a price when cards were peak covid heights...

I think some people feel elite cards are their own submarket and just keep going up independent of the overall card market.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I think some people feel elite cards are their own submarket and just keep going up independent of the overall card market.

10M wasn't a bad estimate as it turned out. A million here, a million there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money!

[Rhotchkiss]

While $7.2mm is much less than all the hype, it is a very solid price and a solid profit compared to what it was acquired for not too long ago. Also, I believe this exact card was recently available for sale on (the artist formally known as) Collectible for $8mm, and it never sold. If correct, I am not surprised that it sold for south of $8mm.

I wish it had gone for a zillion, billion million dollars. But $7.2mm is a very solid result in the real world.

[molenick]

Does anyone think the cards will show up as individual lots in a future REA (or other auction)? And will average less than the $9K per card that they ended up at? I am leaning in this direction at the moment.

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

While $7.4mm is much less than all the hype, it is a very solid price and a solid profit compared to what it was acquired for not too long ago. Also, I believe this exact card was recently available for sale on (the artist formally known as) Collectible for $8mm, and it never sold. If correct, I am not surprised that it sold for south of $8mm.

I wish it had gone for a zillion, billion million dollars. But $7.4mm is a very solid result in the real world.

Ryan—Why $7.4MM? Did REA raise their BP? Solid night for the consignor; kind of a gut punch for REA, especially with the other BN cards not selling. No need to hold a bake sale for them, but still somewhat of a black eye.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Ryan—Why $7.4MM? Did REA raise their BP? Solid night for the consignor; kind of a gut punch for REA, especially with the other BN cards not selling. No need to hold a bake sale for them, but still somewhat of a black eye.

Oops -- $7.2mm. Too late for math!!

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Your source?

Experience from my line of work and hearing Nat Turner expressly state that they are not using it to grade cards in multiple podcast interviews.

It's not possible to grade cards with the type of scans that PSA uses. No matter how high-def the images are. You need to have a machine that takes numerous images from every different angle with light reflected at different angles as well, and then convolve those images to create a topographic map like TAG Grading does in order to even begin to grade cards. And it's just too big of a hill to climb when it comes to vintage cards because of the surfaces.

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by molenick

Does anyone think the cards will show up as individual lots in a future REA (or other auction)? And will average less than the $9K per card that they ended up at? I am leaning in this direction at the moment.

I am guessing that the reserve bid amount was $100,000, and the consigner made a mistake in requesting this amount. The top bid possibly came this close to the reserve, and in my mind it is unlikely that these cards, as a group lot or as individual cards, will approach the amount that was (unsuccessfully) bid tonight...the connection with the Ruth card will no longer be physically present at any future auctions.

Brian

[parkplace33]

7.2 million is the final number. Hey, I actually picked a winner.

My takeaway is that while this is a great card, the high end bidders simply weren’t there for this card. It never moved in extended bidding.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Another interesting question worth pondering is what would the SGC 9.5 Mantle sell for today if it were on the block?

Good question. I think 10-13 million, not much of a drop if at all.

My reasoning is that I do not believe any of the 3 psa 10s are coming to sale anytime soon. This was the best of the best in a sale forum.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Based on what happened with the Ruth card last night, the next ultra high grade 52T Mantle price should be way down as well as the next T206 Wagner. Thoughts on this?

[rjackson44]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

While $7.2mm is much less than all the hype, it is a very solid price and a solid profit compared to what it was acquired for not too long ago. Also, I believe this exact card was recently available for sale on (the artist formally known as) Collectible for $8mm, and it never sold. If correct, I am not surprised that it sold for south of $8mm.

I wish it had gone for a zillion, billion million dollars. But $7.2mm is a very solid result in the real world.

Hi agree 100 pct . Many folks were saying 15 million plus ,oh well

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Based on what happened with the Ruth card last night, the next ultra high grade 52T Mantle price should be way down as well as the next T206 Wagner. Thoughts on this?

This card was purchased for about $5mm less than two years ago. Last night it sells for $7.2mm - a $2.2mm (44%) increase in two years, which is 22% per year. How on god’s green earth is that result a “failure”? It isn’t. Instead, there was a ton of hype and the result did not meet the hype. But the result was very good. The hype was BS. The BN Ruth was worth $5mm two years ago. Now it’s worth $7.2mm. Seems to me, that is pretty darn positive

[mrreality68]

Strong price regardless if even many of us expected higher

Just got surprised and a little disappointed to see no slugfest or bidding in extended time.

[theshowandme]

Curious to when the next one will be offered for sale

I cannot find the pictures, but there was a nice blue example photographed next to this red SGC 3 example at the Babe Ruth museum. That one was a lower grade but looked quite nice.

[theshowandme]

I wish my retirement accounts jumped 44% in two years!

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I wish my retirement accounts jumped 44% in two years!

Cash them all out and 🔥INVE$T!!!🔥

[Republicaninmass]

...and the onslaught of reasons why it didn't sell for as much...at the top of the toppiest market in history.

I don't usually look for investment ideas around cardboard..but when I do, I use the collective brains of net54!

A private sale 2 years ago does not a market make.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

A private sale 2 years ago does not a market make.

An SGC 3 sold in REA in May of 2008 for $517k. Last night, in another public auction, an SGC 3 sold $7.2mm. That is a 13x multiple in 15 years. No justifications needed, only facts. 44% over 2 years in a private sale or 13x over 15 years in a public sale is a great result.

[bcbgcbrcb]

I promise you, and you can take this to the bank, those serious vintage sports card collectors that can afford one of these will rue the day that they did not bid at least one increment higher in last night’s REA auction. Maybe the winner was going to be willing to spend whatever it would take to get that card but we’ll never know as they ended up getting it at a huge bargain price.

If I am wrong here, I really feel sorry for the owners of T206 Wagners and ultra high grade 52T Mantles as they will surely be in for drops in value along the lines of PSA 10 Jordans.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

I promise you, and you can take this to the bank, those serious vintage sports card collectors that can afford one of these will rue the day that they did not bid at least one increment higher in last night’s REA auction. Maybe the winner was going to be willing to spend whatever it would take to get that card but we’ll never know as they ended up getting it at a huge bargain price.

If I am wrong here, I really feel sorry for the owners of T206 Wagners and ultra high grade 52T Mantles as they will surely be in for drops in value along the lines of PSA 10 Jordans.

Yes, my heart also aches for those with $7-10 million to spend on a piece of cardboard. Perhaps if we all pray for them they'll make it through OK.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

This card was purchased for about $5mm less than two years ago. Last night it sells for $7.2mm - a $2.2mm (44%) increase in two years, which is 22% per year. How on god’s green earth is that result a “failure”? It isn’t. Instead, there was a ton of hype and the result did not meet the hype. But the result was very good. The hype was BS. The BN Ruth was worth $5mm two years ago. Now it’s worth $7.2mm. Seems to me, that is pretty darn positive

I’m not familiar with the terms of the private sale, but some of the other posts around here are quoting $6M for that private sale. Not sure which one is accurate or if any of us know for sure. But it seems like it would make a big difference in the gain to the seller, particularly if it was really $6M.

Second, some part of the $7.2M is going to the AH, and not to the seller. Even if it’s only 5% of the hammer, that’s $300K, which reduces the seller’s take a bit. Again, especially if the purchase price was $6M.

Third, $7.2M is only a disappointment when most of the talk in the press was for $10M+. Whether the consignor really expected to get that much is anyone’s guess. But if he bought into the National hype and publicity machine, then I’m guessing he feels like $7.2M is on the low end.

Finally, compared to everyone else who has been banking 100% to 300%+ gains over the last few years, 44% (or possibly less) probably feels like losing money.

[molenick]

I just realized that the Dunn also did not meet its reserve. The high bid was $24.6K (with the premium) and (as others pointed out about the 13-card lot) the only thing special about this card was the association with Ruth, so the best way to sell it was at the same time. It will be interesting to see if the 14 unsold cards show up soon in another auction or if they just disappear for awhile.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by raulus

I’m not familiar with the terms of the private sale, but some of the other posts around here are quoting $6M for that private sale. Not sure which one is accurate or if any of us know for sure. But it seems like it would make a big difference in the gain to the seller, particularly if it was really $6M.

Second, some part of the $7.2M is going to the AH, and not to the seller. Even if it’s only 5% of the hammer, that’s $300K, which reduces the seller’s take a bit. Again, especially if the purchase price was $6M.

Third, $7.2M is only a disappointment when most of the talk in the press was for $10M+. Whether the consignor really expected to get that much is anyone’s guess. But if he bought into the National hype and publicity machine, then I’m guessing he feels like $7.2M is on the low end.

Finally, compared to everyone else who has been banking 100% to 300%+ gains over the last few years, 44% (or possibly less) probably feels like losing money.

Which part of the $7.2M is going to the auction house? The $0 part?