Will the new Heritage and REA tobacco finds impact the market?

[Rhotchkiss]

I think these PWCC, fire-sale, rare-back auctions are much more damaging to T206 values than the recent Heritage and REA finds will be.

As others have mentioned, its all about supply and demand. There are many T206s out there already. This means there is a already a lot of supply, and it appears there is already reciprocal demand. I don't think these finds bring so much new supply that it materially impacts demand.

On the other hand, these PWCC fire sales are killing the rare-back supply-demand dynamic and have resulted in a, likely mid-term, deflation of prices. For example, If 1 out of every 100 people collects sports cards, and 5 out of every 100 card collectors collect T206s, that means 0.05% of the population collects T206s (I am sure it is actually WAY smaller). Now, lets suppose that only 25% of T206 collectors care enough about the backs to pay up for a Lenox, we are talking about 0.0125% of the population who is interested in T206s with Lenox backs.

The PSA Pop report shows 293 Lenox graded (regardless of brown vs black) and the SGC Pop Report shows 259 Lenox graded. Thats only 552 Lenox (notwithstanding crossovers and there have been a ton thanks to David Hall). That's a very small supply to satiate the rather tiny demand. In one single auction, PWCC unloads 63 different Lenox cards -- about 11.5% of the entire graded population. That is way too much supply for the meager demand. Sure, seeing the opportunity, some not otherwise inclined to go after a Lenox did in this case, but they were likely rewarded with a relative steal.

Its all supply and demand, and there must be demand for the supply -- you could have a unique, 1 of 1 item, but if nobody wants it, its worthless. That is why rarity does not equal value.