The trend in Wagner cards

[RCMcKenzie]

REA result for m116 Cobb blue SGC 45 in 2018 was $3300. Cobb and Wagner used to be about the same price.

Is Wagner now thought to be much better than Cobb? I used to collect the set, and still have a Cobb pastel, and was wanting to trade it in for an Audi SUV.

[Rhotchkiss]

My gut is that most people buying these Wagners have the money to do so. They are not buying with borrowed-money and they are not hoping to quickly flip. If thats correct, it would create a floor to any loss in value, as its less likely a mass dumping of Wagner cards will occur by those who recently bought them.

I am not sure how much higher they could go (although I suspect there is still room yet to run), but I do think their new values are here to stay.

[LincolnVT]

The Wagner “trend” might be just that…people looking to ride a short wave. He was a great player and I consider him one of the best hitters in the early days of the game. As some have said, many of his cards are rare. The portrait pose is pretty, but to me there will always only be one Wagner…the T206. Too many other great players (with actual household names) for him to take up more spending space.

[jsfriedm]

Very happy I picked up mine when I did. It wasn't something I was looking for, but I got it on a whim at what is probably a fraction of what it would go for today. I know it's not a portrait, but I always prefer "action" shots anyway:

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

My gut is that most people buying these Wagners have the money to do so. They are not buying with borrowed-money and they are not hoping to quickly flip. If thats correct, it would create a floor to any loss in value, as its less likely a mass dumping of Wagner cards will occur by those who recently bought them.

I am not sure how much higher they could go (although I suspect there is still room yet to run), but I do think their new values are here to stay.

With money saved and invested/gained during the pandemic, perhaps high wealth buyers are getting into this ‘investment vehicle’ (given the tide floats all boats concept-related to the recent $2MM Restored Wagner T206), or upgrading to nicer versions of their existing cards (eg REA’s M116 blue portrait is a VERY nice 1, with 80 bids with no end in sight currently at $25K with buyer’s premium). If buyers have doubled or tripled or more their current Wagner’s value in a year or more, they can afford to sell off what they don’t want.

[RCMcKenzie]

That would make a great sequel to Repo Man. Bring back Emilio Estevez and his brother to repo the non T206 Wagner baseball cards from folks who got behind in their payments.

Seriously it's fine that prices are going up. I need to look for the next trend. Tattoo Orbit hofers maybe.

[robw1959]

Originally Posted by Aaron Seefeldt

I have 0 Wagner cards, sold them all before the “explosion”. BUT I do have these labels and to me they’re the most beautiful Wagner portraits in the hobby

Those cigar labels are so beautiful! I wonder how they got away with printing those when American Tobacco got sued to stop their T206 production?

[Aaron Seefeldt]

Originally Posted by robw1959

Those cigar labels are so beautiful! I wonder how they got away with printing those when American Tobacco got sued to stop their T206 production?

Thanks Rob! Not much is known about them but they were obviously stopped before mass production and distribution. They are all believed to be proofs. The largest one (rectangle/white/SGC Auth) has notes written on it. There is also an envelope or two known so it was obviously a legitimate business venture that was stopped for some reason(s). Did Wagner intervene?

The envelope isn’t mine, I sold it several years ago. Oddly, it has a stamp on it but was never postmarked

[Touch'EmAll]

Amazing stuff, guys !

[Leon]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

Very happy I picked up mine when I did. It wasn't something I was looking for, but I got it on a whim at what is probably a fraction of what it would go for today. I know it's not a portrait, but I always prefer "action" shots anyway:

Love those big borders. I like action and portraits. Great card. (and awesome stuff above!!)
.

[Popcorn]

With grading is the t206 wags still king? Or would the psa 10 52 MM get a higher hammer $

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by Popcorn

With grading is the t206 wags still king? Or would the psa 10 52 MM get a higher hammer $

This is one of the great unsolved mysteries in card collecting, both of which transcend it. Pre war vs. post war. The two most iconic and recognizable cornerstone cards know to the general public. A logical case can be made for either card. They might have the potential to be $100MM in their highest grade.

[jsfriedm]

Just got this Wagner at a much lower price than these have been selling for over the past couple of years:

[Rhotchkiss]

Last night in REA, (5) playing-days Wagner cards/items sold. Below is a list of those cards, together with the most recent relative VCP comps and date of those comp:

M116 blue, SGC 1:
Sold for -- $27,000
Comp #1 -- SGC 3, sold for $16,800 on 4/23/23
Comp #2 -- SGC 1.5, sold for $4,612 on 7/11/21

E93, PSA 2:
Sold for -- $10,200
Comp #1 -- SGC 3.5, sold for $9,000 on 2/12/23
Comp #2 -- PSA 2, sold for $3,360 on 7/24/21

E106, SGC A:
Sold for -- $7,500
Comp #1 -- SGC 2, sold for $5,450 on 4/24/23
Comp #2 -- PSA 1.5, sold for $18,000 on 4/23/22

E254 Colgan's Chips, PSA 4
Sold for -- $3,600
Comp #1 -- SGC 4, sold for $3,540 on 9/17/22
Comp #2 -- SGC 2, sold for $2,220 on 10/23/22

W555 Wagner, PSA 3 -- no real comps in last 4 years
Sold for -- $4,920
Comp #1 -- SGC 5.5, sold for $1,300 on 10/17/19
Comp #2 -- PSA 5, sold for $710 on 10/11/18

Aside from the Colgan's, all of the other playing-day Wagner that sold last night are continuing the upwards trend. The Colgan's flat results is interesting considering its a portrait pic.

[gunboat82]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Last night in REA, (5) playing-days Wagner cards/items sold. Below is a list of those cards, together with the most recent relative VCP comps and date of those comp:

M116 blue, SGC 1:
Sold for -- $27,000
Comp #1 -- SGC 3, sold for $16,800 on 4/23/23
Comp #2 -- SGC 1.5, sold for $4,612 on 7/11/21

E93, PSA 2:
Sold for -- $10,200
Comp #1 -- SGC 3.5, sold for $9,000 on 2/12/23
Comp #2 -- PSA 2, sold for $3,360 on 7/24/21

E106, SGC A:
Sold for -- $7,500
Comp #1 -- SGC 2, sold for $5,450 on 4/24/23
Comp #2 -- PSA 1.5, sold for $18,000 on 4/23/22

E254 Colgan's Chips, PSA 4
Sold for -- $3,600
Comp #1 -- SGC 4, sold for $3,540 on 9/17/22
Comp #2 -- SGC 2, sold for $2,220 on 10/23/22

W555 Wagner, PSA 3 -- no real comps in last 4 years
Sold for -- $4,920
Comp #1 -- SGC 5.5, sold for $1,300 on 10/17/19
Comp #2 -- PSA 5, sold for $710 on 10/11/18

Aside from the Colgan's, all of the other playing-day Wagner that sold last night are continuing the upwards trend. The Colgan's flat results is interesting considering its a portrait pic.

Just one data point, but I'm one of the newer vintage collectors among the influx driving up demand on the "lower end" stuff. I had my eye on the Colgan's Wagner but steered clear because the centering was so bad that it triggered my OCD. I thought the PSA 4 grade was a bit of a mirage that might drive up the price, so I bowed out early.

[Touch'EmAll]

Not sure if PSA puts qualifiers on a 4 grade, but the Colgan's Wagner was OC/MC. As we see again - centering, centering, centering.

[gunboat82]

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

Not sure if PSA puts qualifiers on a 4 grade, but the Colgan's Wagner was OC/MC. As we see again - centering, centering, centering.

According to PSA's site, the off-center tolerance for a "4" is 85/15 on the front and 90/10 on the back. So the item can get a 4 within those parameters, or perhaps a higher grade with an "OC" designation. They can get away without applying the "MC" designation if the centering isn't "an atypical cut for the issue," which is even more subjective.

I don't know if this particular Wagner is "atypical," but it's certainly more off-center than any of the several others I've seen. I do know that this Wagner was previously in an older PSA holder, and it was listed for sale for around $6K in Facebook groups. I'm not sure if PSA is inclined to rubber-stamp the old grade when an item is reslabbed, but it wouldn't surprise me if that happened here.

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

Just got this Wagner at a much lower price than these have been selling for over the past couple of years:

None of these Enameline Wagner detached head cards have ever sold, so it is a little tough to place a value on it.


Brian

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

None of these Enameline Wagner detached head cards have ever sold, so it is a little tough to place a value on it.


Brian

Yeah that’s a head scratcher, lol.

[Aaron Seefeldt]

The recent surge in the Flying Dutchman's prices have me concerned. It's reminiscent of the stock market's internet bubble in 2000ish.

Tread carefully.

[JeremyW]

Originally Posted by Aaron Seefeldt

The recent surge in the Flying Dutchman's prices have me concerned. It's reminiscent of the stock market's internet bubble in 2000ish.

Tread carefully.

I wonder if people are buying the M116 portrait to finish their T206 sets? It is a decent sub.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Aaron Seefeldt

The recent surge in the Flying Dutchman's prices have me concerned. It's reminiscent of the stock market's internet bubble in 2000ish.

Tread carefully.

there are likely powers at play in the hobby...where hoarding of wagners occurred...followed by significant price spikes. Soon to level out...maybe...resulting in slightly less rich valuations in the near future.

[JeremyW]

Pete- I don't see people paying $27K for a PSA1 M116 tomorrow. I'll admit that I don't have one to sell.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by JeremyW

Pete- I don't see people paying $27K for a PSA1 M116 tomorrow. I'll admit that I don't have one to sell.

That’s right, dammit. They’ll pay $270k tomorrow, and they’ll be thankful it wasn’t even more.

[JeremyW]

Originally Posted by raulus

That’s right, dammit. They’ll pay $270k tomorrow, and they’ll be thankful it wasn’t even more.

Should have said that I regret not having one to sell.

[robertsmithnocure]

I think a few of his cards, like his M116, may have gotten ahead of themselves, but I have always thought that there was upside in his cards. I still do, especially for some of his really rare stuff, like his W600, E107, etc.

[chiprop]

My opinion is that Wagner should not be 10x Cobb in any issue other than t206. Either M116 Cobb is too cheap or Wagner is too expensive. Maybe both statements are true.

IMG_4588.jpg

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by chiprop

My opinion is that Wagner should not be 10x Cobb in any issue other than t206. Either M116 Cobb is too cheap or Wagner is too expensive. Maybe both statements are true.]

I generally agree with you. However, Cobb is much more available than Wagner. Wagner has almost no T cards - the few t206s and even fewer t216s. He also doesn’t have as many post cards as Cobb, and the majority of his playing career was before cards were mass produced. It’s virtually impossible to get anything Wagner pre 1909, which makes cards from 1909-11, when he was still playing at superstar level, all the more desirable.

Cobb is a better player and bigger star than Wagner. No doubt. But Wagner is tougher to find and it’s his face on the most famous card of all time.

I honestly think Wagner cards stay high, and, given that Kyle Herbert and Luka Doncic cards sell for as much in Goldin’s auction, may have room yet to run (admittedly, I am a bit biased toward Wagner items!). But $27k for an M116 PSA 1, even a blue, is mind boggling.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I generally agree with you. However, Cobb is much more available than Wagner. Wagner has almost no T cards - the few t206s and even fewer t216s. He also doesn’t have as many post cards as Cobb, and the majority of his playing career was before cards were mass produced. It’s virtually impossible to get anything Wagner pre 1909, which makes cards from 1909-11, when he was still playing at superstar level, all the more desirable.

Cobb is a better player and bigger star than Wagner. No doubt. But Wagner is tougher to find and it’s his face on the most famous card of all time.

I honestly think Wagner cards stay high, and, given that Kyle Herbert and Luka Doncic cards sell for as much in Goldin’s auction, may have room yet to run (admittedly, I am a bit biased toward Wagner items!). But $27k for an M116 PSA 1, even a blue, is mind boggling.

That was no ordinary 1. Would that "extra" paper on the back soak off?

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

That was no ordinary 1. Would that "extra" paper on the back soak off?

There is a wrinkle in there too. If you believe one person's BS about wrinkles just coming out of cards from exposure to moisture, then then some lucky collector can pick up this one in a 4 or a 5 in a few weeks. Stay tuned.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by chiprop

My opinion is that Wagner should not be 10x Cobb in any issue other than t206. Either M116 Cobb is too cheap or Wagner is too expensive. Maybe both statements are true.

Attachment 590734

Dan - Spot on accurate. For example, why is a PSA 2 E93 Wagner fetching $10K+ when a Cobb in the same grade is worth roughly $5-$6K at best. Totally off base and something has to give. Since I don’t see Wagner cards significantly dropping in value, the next staggering pricing increase will be for Ty Cobb “E” & “D” cards (M116s as well)....it’s coming!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

There is a wrinkle in there too. If you believe one person's BS about wrinkles just coming out of cards from exposure to moisture, then then some lucky collector can pick up this one in a 4 or a 5 in a few weeks. Stay tuned.

Oh I was just assuming that would come out which left only the "extra" back paper in the way of a nice midgrade example. Wouldn't you love to see the bidders on this one?

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Oh I was just assuming that would come out which left only the "extra" back paper in the way of a nice midgrade example. Wouldn't you love to see the bidders on this one?

After a certain point the bidders on that one were not bidding on it as an amazing 1. After the makeover it could end up being consigned right back to the house. Remember to recycle, kids.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by chiprop

My opinion is that Wagner should not be 10x Cobb in any issue other than t206. Either M116 Cobb is too cheap or Wagner is too expensive. Maybe both statements are true.

I fall more in line with Ryan on this issue. There is no simple formula given the disparity in numbers of cards each man has and certain idiosyncratic facts about some issues. As has been remarked earlier, a lot of collectors who have T206 Cobb portraits use the M116 Wagner as a replacement for the T206 Wagner they will never own. That makes a Horner Wagner image card often more desirable than a Cobb card from the same set.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

REA result for m116 Cobb blue SGC 45 in 2018 was $3300. Cobb and Wagner used to be about the same price.

Is Wagner now thought to be much better than Cobb? I used to collect the set, and still have a Cobb pastel, and was wanting to trade it in for an Audi SUV.

Rob, I was the winner of the M116 Cobb in REA's auction and felt I got it a good price. Subsequently, at this year's National I traded it for a PSA4 T206 Cobb bat off plus some cash off to complete the 4 poses. it is only in the past several years that Wags has outshone Tyrus, and I wonder with all the hype and publicity about his T206 in recent years if any Wags card bearing a like image will fetch big bucks. Think the E90-2 and Tip Top cards which have been on a roll. I would love the Sporting Life Wagner but it is now out of my range at current auction levels.
The only Wags cards held at the moment are his E92 Dockman, E95 and a trimmed, autographed Goudey Premium.
I have always found it interesting that the Ruth '48 Leaf sells for big bucks while Hans is very reasonable, if not cheap. Obviously, both are long past their playing days.
My Wags grail card is his E94.

[RCMcKenzie]

John, good point about Leaf Ruth and Wagner prices. I had a Leaf Ruth a long time ago, but never thought to buy a Wagner tribute card. Maybe I will soon.

Sounds like you did well with your m116 Cobb. I'm going to hang on to mine for a while.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

John, good point about Leaf Ruth and Wagner prices. I had a Leaf Ruth a long time ago, but never thought to buy a Wagner tribute card. Maybe I will soon.

Sounds like you did well with your m116 Cobb. I'm going to hang on to mine for a while.

1. Ruth is in a class by himself.
2. Ruth 48L looks like Ruth of his playing days, Wagner is depicted as an old man.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

1. Ruth is in a class by himself.
2. Ruth 48L looks like Ruth of his playing days, Wagner is depicted as an old man.

Though in all fairness, by 1916 Wagner looked like he was about 100.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Though in all fairness, by 1916 Wagner looked like he was about 100.

Like Duke Snider at 38?

[Vintagedeputy]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Like Duke Snider at 38?

Or worse yet, 37 year old Don Mossi.

[Exhibitman]

Warren Spahn, 44:

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Vintagedeputy

Or worse yet, 37 year old Don Mossi.

Always liked that Mossi card!

.

[Republicaninmass]

Supply certainly hasn't become less, in fact only more cards have entered the market. Demand, well wagner due to his t206 is a household name. I can't explanation, unless people are hoarding and hoping to alter or sell higher

[Vintagedeputy]

Originally Posted by Leon

Always liked that Mossi card!

.

The face only a card collector could love.

[Mark]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I generally agree with you. However, Cobb is much more available than Wagner. Wagner has almost no T cards - the few t206s and even fewer t216s. He also doesn’t have as many post cards as Cobb, and the majority of his playing career was before cards were mass produced. It’s virtually impossible to get anything Wagner pre 1909, which makes cards from 1909-11, when he was still playing at superstar level, all the more desirable.

Cobb is a better player and bigger star than Wagner. No doubt. But Wagner is tougher to find and it’s his face on the most famous card of all time.

I honestly think Wagner cards stay high, and, given that Kyle Herbert and Luka Doncic cards sell for as much in Goldin’s auction, may have room yet to run (admittedly, I am a bit biased toward Wagner items!). But $27k for an M116 PSA 1, even a blue, is mind boggling.

I agree that the tremendous, new demand for Wagner cards is hard to explain. It's strange to think that more than a handful of people would think that any Wagner card is a shrewd $20K investment. But I disagree when you say that there is no doubt anywhere that Cobb was the greater player.

[Cmvorce]

Originally Posted by JeremyW

I wonder if people are buying the M116 portrait to finish their T206 sets? It is a decent sub.

This is exactly what I did. Even though I’m not even halfway done with the set I wanted to get a portrait Wagner when I had the opportunity.

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I generally agree with you. However, Cobb is much more available than Wagner. Wagner has almost no T cards - the few t206s and even fewer t216s. He also doesn’t have as many post cards as Cobb, and the majority of his playing career was before cards were mass produced. It’s virtually impossible to get anything Wagner pre 1909, which makes cards from 1909-11, when he was still playing at superstar level, all the more desirable.

Cobb is a better player and bigger star than Wagner. No doubt. But Wagner is tougher to find and it’s his face on the most famous card of all time.

I honestly think Wagner cards stay high, and, given that Kyle Herbert and Luka Doncic cards sell for as much in Goldin’s auction, may have room yet to run (admittedly, I am a bit biased toward Wagner items!). But $27k for an M116 PSA 1, even a blue, is mind boggling.

To put data around this observation, there appears to be 5,006+/- graded (PSA, SGC, Beckett) Cobb portraits (green, red, pastel, blue, other). Whereas there are only 796+/- graded Wagner portraits (right and left facing, color and non-color). Please refer to POP reports for up to date and validation of totals. =6x fewer total Wagner portraits.

[Republicaninmass]

I'm a completionist so to say I would start a t206 set would mean I would never be finished. I understand the big 4, but just not my cup of tea. I'd really have my head examined to add another type card and say "I'm done" just buy a reprint.

See the Board bST for people.hoping to cash in on this mystery! Got to be a top here soon, with a deep bottom, but a median higher than it was eventually

[Peter_Spaeth]

M116 Blue SGC 5.5 in REA up over 50K already.

[toothcutter]

Who ever grabs the 5.5 wags under 85k is stealing that card