Will this stock market madness affect cards?

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

We are only in the first inning. The virus and layoffs are only getting started. Unfortunately, they are no where near peaking. Some economists and health officials estimate that will not occur until July. You can tout short-term auction prices and result all you want.

I’m not worried about an auction result currently going on right now. Let’s see what happens down the road. Revisit this issue in 6 months. Just like those 4 senators that were telling Americans everything would be fine a few weeks ago, while they liquidated their portfolios.

Exactly, this thing is only getting started.

I don’t think people fully realize how integrated commerce is. We are going to hit depression era employment levels. GDP levels we haven’t seen in 20 years. RE market is going to get crushed and I bet a significant portion of the hobby is debt financed.

The best and most desirable cards will be fine but they represent a very small portion of the overall hobby. My guess is overall transaction volume has dropped substantially and will continue to drop. April is when millions of Americans won’t be receiving any income, for now most folks layed off are getting their two weeks.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by japhi

Exactly, this thing is only getting started.

I don’t think people fully realize how integrated commerce is. We are going to hit depression era employment levels. GDP levels we haven’t seen in 20 years. RE market is going to get crushed and I bet a significant portion of the hobby is debt financed.

The best and most desirable cards will be fine but they represent a very small portion of the overall hobby. My guess is overall transaction volume has dropped substantially and will continue to drop. April is when millions of Americans won’t be receiving any income, for now most folks layed off are getting their two weeks.

Matt I agree with most of what you said, spot on. However, I do not see depression era employment levels coming.......

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Matt I agree with most of what you said, spot on. However, I do not see depression era employment levels coming.......

I sure hope you are right but 2mm people will make UI claims this week. Last week in Canada we had 500k claims - 20x increase yoy. And most employers have ‘t even made a move yet. Early April is going to be ugly.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Matt I agree with most of what you said, spot on. However, I do not see depression era employment levels coming.......

Unfortunately, the Secretary of the Treasury told the Senate that is exactly what to expect, they are just trying to hide this info (too).

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/mnuc...urce-says.html

After the information leaked, the Treasury later walked it back to "not a projection" status.

Meanwhile, on Main Street, several of my clients contacted me last week with questions about how to lay off their entire staffs.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Matt I agree with most of what you said, spot on. However, I do not see depression era employment levels coming.......

Social distancing was already employed at grocery stores and McDonald's with those self check out machines. My wife and I bet that more stores will begin to employ them as we move into the future.

Read an article from MIT, it said the hardest hit population from this newest recession will be the low end wage worker that can easily be replaced. It wondered aloud about how universal incomes are laughed at now, but might become a more serious debate going forward.

While I too doubt a great depression era unemployment percentage, if the USA really wanted a stimulus package, it would invest 3 trillion into highways, bridges, and modernizing dams. Lots of bodies with shovels, cdl, and biceps needed. College degree not required.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

[Exhibitman]

This just reported:

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in gross domestic product.