Will this stock market madness affect cards?

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Sorry not sure if I’m believing that that price will result in a real sale?

The card is selling strong in all grades.

eBay competed auctions are remaining very strong across all genres.

I get it everyone is waiting for the shoe to drop but so far after a historic route in stock and bond prices it hasn’t happened.

[Shoeless Moe]

but if this decline continues.......get it on ice

[Republicaninmass]

People still watching PWCC auctions? What a freaking farce, from day 1 until today.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

People still watching PWCC auctions? What a freaking farce, from day 1 until today.

well at least with PSA shut down they won't have a stream of altered, er, conserved, cards to sell.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

well at least with PSA shut down they won't have a stream of altered, er, conserved, cards to sell.

What's a trimmer to do? Just use sgc and "only" realize a smaller profit

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[perezfan]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

What's a trimmer to do? Just use sgc and "only" realize a smaller profit

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Maybe the card trimmers will now file for unemployment. With their partner in crime (PSA) now closed, their ability to earn an income is adversely impacted.

Moser, Mathis, Thorn, Adams, Block, Tuttle, Pevarnick and the rest should at least try to file for Unemployment, and see what happens. Without PSA, they are basically in the same boat as the rest of us!

[Tyruscobb]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

The card is selling strong in all grades.

eBay competed auctions are remaining very strong across all genres.

I get it everyone is waiting for the shoe to drop but so far after a historic route in stock and bond prices it hasn’t happened.

We are only in the first inning. The virus and layoffs are only getting started. Unfortunately, they are no where near peaking. Some economists and health officials estimate that will not occur until July. You can tout short-term auction prices and result all you want.

I’m not worried about an auction result currently going on right now. Let’s see what happens down the road. Revisit this issue in 6 months. Just like those 4 senators that were telling Americans everything would be fine a few weeks ago, while they liquidated their portfolios.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

We are only in the first inning. The virus and layoffs are only getting started. Unfortunately, they are no where near peaking. Some economists and health officials estimate that will not occur until July. You can tout short-term auction prices and result all you want.

I’m not worried about an auction result currently going on right now. Let’s see what happens down the road. Revisit this issue in 6 months. Just like those 4 senators that were telling Americans everything would be fine a few weeks ago, while they liquidated their portfolios.

I totally agree with this sentiment and this is not even taking into account the likelihood that this card has been altered!!!
Seems like it’s already a non-issue?

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

We are only in the first inning. The virus and layoffs are only getting started. Unfortunately, they are no where near peaking. Some economists and health officials estimate that will not occur until July. You can tout short-term auction prices and result all you want.

I’m not worried about an auction result currently going on right now. Let’s see what happens down the road. Revisit this issue in 6 months. Just like those 4 senators that were telling Americans everything would be fine a few weeks ago, while they liquidated their portfolios.

Exactly, this thing is only getting started.

I don’t think people fully realize how integrated commerce is. We are going to hit depression era employment levels. GDP levels we haven’t seen in 20 years. RE market is going to get crushed and I bet a significant portion of the hobby is debt financed.

The best and most desirable cards will be fine but they represent a very small portion of the overall hobby. My guess is overall transaction volume has dropped substantially and will continue to drop. April is when millions of Americans won’t be receiving any income, for now most folks layed off are getting their two weeks.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by japhi

Exactly, this thing is only getting started.

I don’t think people fully realize how integrated commerce is. We are going to hit depression era employment levels. GDP levels we haven’t seen in 20 years. RE market is going to get crushed and I bet a significant portion of the hobby is debt financed.

The best and most desirable cards will be fine but they represent a very small portion of the overall hobby. My guess is overall transaction volume has dropped substantially and will continue to drop. April is when millions of Americans won’t be receiving any income, for now most folks layed off are getting their two weeks.

Matt I agree with most of what you said, spot on. However, I do not see depression era employment levels coming.......

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Matt I agree with most of what you said, spot on. However, I do not see depression era employment levels coming.......

I sure hope you are right but 2mm people will make UI claims this week. Last week in Canada we had 500k claims - 20x increase yoy. And most employers have ‘t even made a move yet. Early April is going to be ugly.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Matt I agree with most of what you said, spot on. However, I do not see depression era employment levels coming.......

Unfortunately, the Secretary of the Treasury told the Senate that is exactly what to expect, they are just trying to hide this info (too).

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/mnuc...urce-says.html

After the information leaked, the Treasury later walked it back to "not a projection" status.

Meanwhile, on Main Street, several of my clients contacted me last week with questions about how to lay off their entire staffs.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Matt I agree with most of what you said, spot on. However, I do not see depression era employment levels coming.......

Social distancing was already employed at grocery stores and McDonald's with those self check out machines. My wife and I bet that more stores will begin to employ them as we move into the future.

Read an article from MIT, it said the hardest hit population from this newest recession will be the low end wage worker that can easily be replaced. It wondered aloud about how universal incomes are laughed at now, but might become a more serious debate going forward.

While I too doubt a great depression era unemployment percentage, if the USA really wanted a stimulus package, it would invest 3 trillion into highways, bridges, and modernizing dams. Lots of bodies with shovels, cdl, and biceps needed. College degree not required.

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[Exhibitman]

This just reported:

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in gross domestic product.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

We are only in the first inning. The virus and layoffs are only getting started. Unfortunately, they are no where near peaking. Some economists and health officials estimate that will not occur until July. You can tout short-term auction prices and result all you want.

I’m not worried about an auction result currently going on right now. Let’s see what happens down the road. Revisit this issue in 6 months. Just like those 4 senators that were telling Americans everything would be fine a few weeks ago, while they liquidated their portfolios.

As fast and viscous as the move lower in stock and bond prices have been I would imagine most that expect a significant correction in card prices would think that is what we would be seeing right now.

PWCC has 8,795 active listings and there is still a ton of money being spent on cards.

I get it most on here despise them but in order to see what is actually taking place with cards you have no choice but to watch their auctions. Whether anyone likes it or not they are still getting the lion share of the best cards on EBAY and I maintain the opinion they are more like a stock exchange than a dealer and I like to follow prices.

There is a wide range of outcomes that can come from this disaster. Business in this country can't stay closed for long as some are estimating without destroying the economy and I believe this will force us to get back to work faster. So far while this has hit all 50 states it is clearly a bigger issue in just a few and so hopefully regionally we see a faster acceleration of normalcy.

Time will tell how this plays out.

In terms of your last comment. Part of the story is fake news. The woman from GA is innocent and just as I proved on this board Joe Orlando was with his stock option exercise program some will believe it regardless because they simply want too.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

As fast and viscous as the move lower in stock and bond prices have been I would imagine most that expect a significant correction in card prices would think that is what we would be seeing right now.

PWCC has 8,795 active listings and there is still a ton of money being spent on cards.

I get it most on here despise them but in order to see what is actually taking place with cards you have no choice but to watch their auctions. Whether anyone likes it or not they are still getting the lion share of the best cards on EBAY and I maintain the opinion they are more like a stock exchange than a dealer and I like to follow prices.

There is a wide range of outcomes that can come from this disaster. Business in this country can't stay closed for long as some are estimating without destroying the economy and I believe this will force us to get back to work faster. So far while this has hit all 50 states it is clearly a bigger issue in just a few and so hopefully regionally we see a faster acceleration of normalcy.

Time will tell how this plays out.

In terms of your last comment. Part of the story is fake news. The woman from GA is innocent and just as I proved on this board Joe Orlando was with his stock option exercise program some will believe it regardless because they simply want too.

Regarding PWCC sales, the proper way to track market direction is not number if items, or high profile item sale price. The way to see where we are headed would be YOY volume by auction. So what is total transaction volume March 2019 vs 2020. And considering we are really only two weeks into this, and the auction that just closed was 90 days in the works, I don’t think it is a good data point, or any data point since we don’t know YOY. In fact, as this thing expands I expect PWCC listings to increase as supply outstrips demand.

I am going to assume that cards will trend in the same direction all consumer spending is trending...way the fook down. I have a very hard time believing that equities, PM’s, discretionary purchases like cars and RV’s, soon RE , will all trend down, significantly, and card prices will hold. It would defy logic for that to happen.

I do expect shilling and all the shenanigans we are used to, to increase as the pinheads in the hobby try and keep the illusion of strong prices alive. But there is no way trillions evaporates from GDP and a fringe investment like sportscards doesn’t take a beating. First week in April is when SHTF and ten million people hit EI.

Again, hope I am wrong, my family is heavily impacted ( but fortunately work for a great company and will be ok).

[Johnny630]

I’m worried about the people who will panic cut or run when they open their 401k/IRA retirement statements.

Redemption calls.

[Golfcollector]

Dow Futures Sunday night, hit the circuit breaker about 5 minutes into the open at 6 PM EST. Down 984 I believe, so we are just above 18K now for the Dow Jones.

[sreader3]

All of the threads over the years saying that stocks are an investment and cards are a hobby seem pretty questionable. Right now, I wish I had 50% of my net worth in cards and 3% in stocks, instead of the other way around.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by sreader3

All of the threads over the years saying that stocks are an investment and cards are a hobby seem pretty questionable. Right now, I wish I had 50% of my net worth in cards and 3% in stocks, instead of the other way around.

If the richest 1% are heavily invested it's good for you too. But they are also diversified in art, automobiles, cards, coins, jewelry, land/rental property, etc. Its good to have a balanced portfolio.

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[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by japhi

Regarding PWCC sales, the proper way to track market direction is not number if items, or high profile item sale price. The way to see where we are headed would be YOY volume by auction. So what is total transaction volume March 2019 vs 2020. And considering we are really only two weeks into this, and the auction that just closed was 90 days in the works, I don’t think it is a good data point, or any data point since we don’t know YOY. In fact, as this thing expands I expect PWCC listings to increase as supply outstrips demand.

I am going to assume that cards will trend in the same direction all consumer spending is trending...way the fook down. I have a very hard time believing that equities, PM’s, discretionary purchases like cars and RV’s, soon RE , will all trend down, significantly, and card prices will hold. It would defy logic for that to happen.

I do expect shilling and all the shenanigans we are used to, to increase as the pinheads in the hobby try and keep the illusion of strong prices alive. But there is no way trillions evaporates from GDP and a fringe investment like sportscards doesn’t take a beating. First week in April is when SHTF and ten million people hit EI.

Again, hope I am wrong, my family is heavily impacted ( but fortunately work for a great company and will be ok).

The point was simply if a seller who has over 8,000 active listings is to be avoided from watching you are missing the market. They get the best cards. The best cards drive the market.

I like to follow trading card auctions to see what is taking place in the hobby. There is no better seller to follow than PWCC to get a broad range of cards.

I went through my purchases today on EBAY and I have won seven cards from their auctions since January of 2018. I am very pleased with the buys and if someone wants to buy cards they simply can't just exclude them if they want to advance their collection.

There are a multitude of cards getting action right now and maybe these buyers haven't gotten the word that the market has collapsed or unemployment is set to explode. Maybe they don't care. I don't know the answer but you don't see a drought yet in cards.

[japhi]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

The point was simply if a seller who has over 8,000 active listings is to be avoided from watching you are missing the market. They get the best cards. The best cards drive the market.

I like to follow trading card auctions to see what is taking place in the hobby. There is no better seller to follow than PWCC to get a broad range of cards.

I went through my purchases today on EBAY and I have won seven cards from their auctions since January of 2018. I am very pleased with the buys and if someone wants to buy cards they simply can't just exclude them if they want to advance their collection.

There are a multitude of cards getting action right now and maybe these buyers haven't gotten the word that the market has collapsed or unemployment is set to explode. Maybe they don't care. I don't know the answer but you don't see a drought yet in cards.

Well this thread is about the overall card market and price predictions, not PWCC. PWCC having lots of listings is not a data point. I would expect their listing to go UP in times like this. Similar to RE, lot of listings represents a buyers market.

And who cares if there is lots of action. There is lots of action in equity markets right now, volumes are historic. Would you agree then that equity markets are doing well?

I enjoy you as a poster here and on CU - optimism and supporting the hobby is a good thing. But we are going through a once in a lifetime event. PWCC’s own index ffs shows that broadly cards have been flat since 2016 and that was in the best of times - 4 percent UE, RE markets exploding and free money.

As a fellow guy in finance, what is your outlook for the economy and how does that dovetail with your outlook on cards? Who cares about PWCC, how do you feel cards will perform in 12-18% UE and negative 20% GDP? You can’t be one of the “this will pass soon” guys?

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by japhi

Well this thread is about the overall card market and price predictions, not PWCC. PWCC having lots of listings is not a data point. I would expect their listing to go UP in times like this. Similar to RE, lot of listings represents a buyers market.

And who cares if there is lots of action. There is lots of action in equity markets right now, volumes are historic. Would you agree then that equity markets are doing well?

I enjoy you as a poster here and on CU - optimism and supporting the hobby is a good thing. But we are going through a once in a lifetime event. PWCC’s own index ffs shows that broadly cards have been flat since 2016 and that was in the best of times - 4 percent UE, RE markets exploding and free money.

As a fellow guy in finance, what is your outlook for the economy and how does that dovetail with your outlook on cards? Who cares about PWCC, how do you feel cards will perform in 12-18% UE and negative 20% GDP? You can’t be one of the “this will pass soon” guys?

There was a comment earlier about people still watching PWCC listings. The answer is yes I still do. I don't see how someone can't.

EBAY is a real time market place. The same data that is available to stock market participants is available to those buying cards. These same people can turn on the news and see the horror show. Why are they still bidding on cards? I don't know. I know I have been trolling EBAY looking for stuff to buy at the same pace during this entire market meltdown. If something I want shows up I am buying it. 100% of my card buys have come from monthly cash flow and I assume there are plenty of others who have a similar situation.

I put more money into cards in 2010 then any other year and that was a horrible time for the economy and highly uncertain for me in finance. In my view cash flow is king and so there is no doubt that there will be some cash flow impact in the coming months for loads of people. That said my cash flow can decline and I can still afford to buy cards. Some won't be able to. How much they matter to the card prices is debatable. I don't know the answer.

The economy was in great shape heading into this. I think it all comes down to how long it is halted. If it is two months for most of it the stimulus package and debt extension efforts will help. If it is four months or more we will be in trouble for a while. The decline in interest rates and energy is huge stimulus and obviously the lack of work is not.

There was a hedge fund manager that was on CNBC this week twice who is a billionaire and in his late 40's and started at 25. He thinks the market hits new highs by the end of the year. Is it probable? No. Is it possible? Yes. He is looking at the same situation we are.

I personally think this is a very hard one to predict because under no circumstances did I think in 2009 it would be a v shaped recovery. I remember arguing with an old timer in the office who was a portfolio manager and was insistent we were in trouble for a long time. I couldn't have been more wrong as the market came screaming back and while I had been very bearish on the way down I didn't get it right on the way back up. With a massive amount of fiscal stimulus it is very possible that this will assist in keeping us from going as deep as one might think and certainly could assist in us coming back from this.

My situation is different than most because I own such a large concentration of the same cards and a large percentage of the population totals. A few weeks ago an Andre The Giant 1982 PSA 8 sold for $1,358. There are 18 in the pop report and I have 6 of them. I know I could never sell them all at the same time and not impact prices. A PSA 7 sold for $620. I have 7 of those. The same holds true there. That said the totals of these cards are low enough where they don't come for sale frequently and so if someone wants one they have to go after it. Do some of the market participants get knocked out of the market for this card? Possibly but it is not 100%.

I truly believe that a ton of money has flowed into cards because they are a hard asset. You still own it regardless of the value. Someone who bought Enron watched their piece of paper go to zero. An Andre will always be worth something. Perhaps more. Perhaps less but never zero.

There is a trimmed raw Kobe Bryant card with a current bid of $145,600 right now on Ebay. Why? Because there are people out there that want this stuff and that isn't going to change. The buying power might change and that is the the question we can't answer. If it lasts a few months it is a non event. If it lasts years than yes the economy will catch up to cards.

It remains to be seen how this plays out and I remain optimistic we will get through this. I hope I am right. It has never paid to bet against the American economy for long.