The Long-Term Future of Vintage Cards

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by mferronibc

Great discussion, thanks everyone. Anyone think that continued globalization may someday increase the demand for vintage cards? Although baseball hasn't really shared the same international explosion of popularity as say the NBA and now even the NFL, there has always been a sort of "status symbol" to owning high value vintage cards and wondering if as China for example continues to develop and mature, this sense of owning a piece of American history (or at least a valuable collectible like a piece of art that many US CEOs and top 1%ers chase) could continue to improve the market overall in the future? Not that I have any ambitions of someday owning a 52 Mantle or am close to that socioeconomic level, just that if there's more attention in other countries that Mr X businessman just bought an expensive Mantle card, the desire to own some emulation of that on a smaller scale could boost the market in general in that country/region? It's one thing if millions of Americans make up the market for cards when only a few thousand exist but image the impact if 10x that many globally become interested and have the access to them on Ebay and consignment sites. This may already be happening to some degree or it may be a completely asinine thought.

I doubt it. Basically the hard limit you have is that baseball is only popular in a few countries other than the US.

I live in Japan and baseball is hugely popular here. Its also got the third biggest economy in the world, so lots of consumers with money. And of course there are a lot of Japanese players in the US so awareness of the US sport is quite high.

But....while there is a market for American cards, even here its not that big, and most of it is focused on current cards (particularly of Japanese MLB players). Vintage, particularly pre-war, American cards are off the radar here except maybe for a handful of collectors.

And if that is in the country that would be probably the most likely to develop a market for American vintage cards, everywhere else (except Canada) its going to be non-existent.

Baseball cards aren't really like the art market, which is global because people in all societies can at some level appreciate art even if it is produced in a different country from their own. Baseball cards though are so tied to interest in the sport that unless baseball itself becomes more popular, interest in baseball cards isn't going to catch on.

A wealthy Chinese businessman will gladly splurge huge sums on a piece of art by a famous American painter because he can claim bragging rights among his peers, who at least will know that art by famous artists is expensive. Perfect vanity purchase, which is what all these things are at the high end. A T206 Wagner though? None of his peers will be impressed with that even if he knows what it is. Forget about it.

I mean, ask yourself if you are interested in investing big money on cards of old cricket players from the UK and you can get an idea of how unappealing these things are in societies where baseball isn't popular.