Slightly OT - 2020 Modern Baseball Era HOF Ballot

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

Warning: This is a long and boring post.

My problem with relying on theoretical WAR stats is that baseball is really a game of small players. You have all the superstars and all-time greats, but so many of the incredible moments in baseball are the result of lesser players coming up big time, or quality players messing up. You can say Player 'A' or 'B' has great WAR numbers, but depending on that STAT alone would ultimately eliminate all of the accomplishments of low WAR numbered players. (This is stream of consciousness writing, so I am obviously talking in a very general sort of way.)

I'm a New Yorker, so I'll just quickly mention a few playoff games involving the Mets and Yankees:
1. If Bucky Dent is replaced, do the the Yankees win that tie-breaker?
2. How about Don Larsen? Do the Yanks win that game without him?
3. Bill Mazeroski?
4. Ron Swoboda?
5. How about leaving Bill Buckner in? If they replaced him, do the Sox win the World Series? Yes!

Baseball is about championships, and who could've seen the above named players having such a huge impact on an entire season? And those are only players who quickly come to mind with regard to NY and the playoffs. There are a gazillion other cases of players whose WAR stats should have had them on the bench, but were in the game and did something great. Baseball isn't science, it's all about momentary factors, especially considering the fact that just to make it to the majors you have to have an enormous amount of skill and talent.

It breaks my heart to dredge it up again, but I'm a Mets fan. In 2015, Yoenis Cespedes basically single-handedly carried the Metties to the World Series after being acquired halfway through the season. For the second half, he was a force the likes of which I have never seen in baseball. They would've been in last place without him. Yes, that is hyperbole, but pretty friggin' close to being true. His half-season WAR (if something like that exists) was incalculable, but...and it's a huge BUT...he absolutely sucked in the World Series. If memory serves right, I know he had no extra base hits, only a single RBI on a sac fly, and batted .150 or something?? I believe that's right. Just look at the ridiculous effort he gave on the first pitch of the Series...

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...E&&FORM=VRDGAR

Back to Bob Costas for a moment. That guy, who has never played a game of baseball in his life (yes, I can't stand that pretentious idiot), would say, "Well, Cespedes could hear his teammate's footfalls approaching and thought it better to slow up and avoid impeding his progress to the horsehide." Whereas someone who understands baseball and has played his entire life in the outfield (like me) would say, "It's the g_ddamn World Series!! If I have to crash into a wall, a land mine or a teammate, I am catching that ball!!!!"


Then there was this wonderful play on the bases, ending the game:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...4&&FORM=VRDGAR


And more lackasdaisical outfield work:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...7&&FORM=VRDGAR


Yet, his fielding percentage was 1.000% for the Series (I just looked it up, as well as the stats mentioned above). So, statistically he didn't commit a single error, but does that fact truly tell the story?? Noooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(It should go without saying, but yes, I understand that he was just one player, so it clearly wasn't his fault alone...but this post started with WAR, so it's relevant.) A monster year and I love him for it, but if he was replaced by even a newbie from AAA, the Mets would've stood a (much) better chance at winning, and that still depresses me.

If it makes you feel better his WAR with the Mets that year was 2.3 for about 1/3 a season. Extrapolate that to a 6.9 and it's a great season, but not even MVP level most years. Also don't use WAR in a bubble. Cespedes is normally about a 3 WAR guy. That's the reality, not his flukey 2015.