OT: Did Adam Dunn ruin his Hall chances

[vintagetoppsguy]

Bill,

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question while others overlooked it. Although it was a hypothetical question (but a realistic possibility), I thought it was a valid question.

You may be right, 550 HRs may not be enough to get him into Cooperstown, who knows? But regardless of all his other stats (low BA, all the SO, etc), there has to be a point where they have to let him in just because of the number of home runs overshadows all the other stats. For example if he ends up playing another 5 years (puts him at 39 years old - again a realistic possibility) averaging 30 HRs a year, he would end up in the ballpark of 600 HRs. I don't think you can keep him out at that point, I don't care if his BA drops to .200 and he SO on every 4/5 ABs. 600 HR is HOF worthy no matter what (again not considering PED issues) in my opinion.

I get what you're saying about no MVP, SS, GG, etc. But there are other players in the HOF that never one any of those titles either. Look at Nolan Ryan. He never won a CY, won only 20 or more games twice in his 27 years, an ERA title only once and lost more games than he won 7 years. Yeah, he won 324 games in his career, but when you consider he played for 27 years, that's only 12 wins a year. He never had any of the accolades that you're (and others) saying Dunn never had. Don't get me wrong, I love Ryan and think he is great. We're from the same home town and I even played ball with his oldest son. But all I'm saying is that all of these titles you're (and others) saying Dunn has never won, well the same can be said for many HOFers.

Regards,

David

Originally Posted by the 'stache

No.

I respect that you are an Adam Dunn fan. I think he's been a great power hitter, and I also think he's been more than just a power hitter with the walks he's taken. And I think if he reaches 500 home runs without taking any PEDs in an era when many did, he is to be commended.

But I still don't think he's a Hall of Famer. If he manages to hit 500 home runs, he did it by being one of the top home run hitters in the Majors for quite some time. But he was never the best home run hitter. He never led the American league in runs, home runs, RBI, average, slugging average, OBP, or OPS. Not once. In 14 seasons, he never led his league in any of the premier hitting metrics.

He's never won an MVP. But not only has he not won an MVP, he's never finished in the top 5 of any MVP vote. He's never finished in the top 10, or the top 15, or even the top 20 of any MVP vote. His best finish in an MVP race was 21st in 2010. That means every single one of the fourteen years he played, the Baseball Writers thought there were at least 20 other players in the American League...not even in all of baseball, but just in the American League, that were better than Adam Dunn.

Adam Dunn has never won a Silver Slugger. That means he was never even the best power hitter at his position in the American League. There was always somebody better.

There just isn't anything remarkable about Dunn's career. He gets points for longevity, and consistency.

I am a baseball fanatic. I watch 100 games at least every year. I watch the races. I read the newspaper. I subscribe to Baseball America, and MLB.tv, and watch the MLB channel religiously. At no time in the near decade and a half since Adam Dunn has been a Major Leaguer did I consider him a superstar, or Hall of Fame worthy. Again, he walks more than people probably were aware of. But besides the walks, Dunn is a home run hitter with a nearly 35% career strikeout rate. There isn't anything more to him.

You know how many 30 home run seasons there have been between 2001 and 2014?

371

Hitting 30 home runs is good. It is nothing special, however.

What about 40 home run seasons?

There have been 83 40 home run seasons between 2001 and 2014. Ok, that's, of course, tougher to do. Dunn appears on this list six times. Dunn's best season is good for 33rd on the list of best individual home run seasons since 2001. There have been 13 seasons of 50 or more home runs.

But typically, people that hit a lot of home runs and make the Hall of Fame did other things well. Mays and Aaron, Ruth, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Jimmie Foxx, Willie McCovey, Ted Williams, Ernie Banks, Eddie Matthews, Ken Griffey Jr, Barry Bonds. The other guys were great hitters. Some were elite fielders. Most of them were the best players in baseball at least once or twice in their career.

Dunn never finished in the top 20 of any MVP vote!

Adam Dunn should, and will be remembered as a great power hitter. But he wasn't, at least in my educated opinion, an elite baseball player. He could hit the ball out of the park. When he wasn't hitting a home run, he really wasn't contributing to his team much in an other way.

I just don't see him in Cooperstown.

Edit: by the way, JAWS (Jaffe War Score System) has Adam Dunn listed as the 133rd best left fielder of all-time.