2016 Hall of Fame Choices

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

4 AS teams. Never above 4th in MVP and only two top 10s. Didn't reach 2000 hits. Baseball reference numbers:

Gray Ink Batting - 60 (426), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 88 (202), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 39 (175), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS Center Field (14th), 60.3 career WAR/42.5 7yr-peak WAR/51.4 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.0 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS

In a word, no. In two words, no way.

Peter,

Are you so sure?

Take a look at JAWS using Fangraphs WAR instead of the BR WAR that you used. There are four HOFers at the CF position who are so far above the rest that they skew any "averages" as a result. Their career WAR numbers are so high that do you know whose career WAR is only a very small amount "above average" for a HOFer?

Ken Griffey Jr.

If you take Mays, Mantle, Cobb and Speaker out of the equation, take a look at where Edmonds rates against HOF CF in career WAR per Fangraphs:

DiMaggio 83.1
Griffey Jr 77.7
Hamilton (Billy) 70.3
Edmonds 64.5
Snider 63.5
Carey 60.1
Dawson 59.5
Ashburn 57.4
Doby 51.1
Roush 49.6
Duffy 48.3
Averill 47.9
Puckett 44.9
Wilson 42.1
Combs 41.3

Those are the OF used in the JAWS calculation on BR (plus Griffeyband Edmonds).

How about peak 7 year WAR without Cobb or Mantle or Mays or Speaker factored in?

DiMaggio 52.5
Griffey 51.1
Snider 47.5
Edmonds 45.4
Hamilton 45.2
Ashburn 40.8
Doby 39.8
Dawson 38.4
Wilson 38.4
Averill 37.3
Duffy 35.8
Carey 34.4
Puckett 33.9
Combs 33.3
Roush 32.7

Yet Edmonds is going to get less than 5% of the vote and not be eligible again? Seriously?

Tom C