I simply do not understand Modern - Doncic vs Mantle

[drazz5]

[QUOTE=Rhotchkiss;2206401]

Originally Posted by drazz5

Being a 20-something t206 collector, I find I do not have the typical collecting habits of my generation. From my perspective, the "manufactured" scarcity of modern cards completely cheapens the hobby. T206 cards, and all vintage cards for that matter, intrigue me because their value is determined by external limiting factors on a mass produced product that was never intended to be scarce. Age, wear and tear, poor storage practices, and historical significance (as OP mentioned) are what drives the desirability and therefore value.

For the modern card counterpart, a card manufacturer can change the printing settings and slap a x/10 on the card, and it seems like we are just expected to assign the same desirability. One seems organic, the other feels like I am getting duped into a profit taking scheme.

Less than 15 years ago, I was spending my allowance money to buy the latest /20 jersey relic card for $50. Those same cards are worth $3 today. I have a hard time believing cards that have the same basic components 15 years later, with prices that have inflated 10,000%, will ever retain their value as well as vintage...but I guess we will see.[/QUOTE

Thank you for an on-topic post.

Regarding manufactured rarity, we are Badgers, and a few months ago my 13 year old son got (or I bought him) a 2020 Pannini Red Wave, auto, Jonathan Taylor rookie (I hope I said that right). He is into modern and I love that he is interested in cards and I want to do stuff with him so I indulged, especially a Badger. So the other day I started to contemplate what if we did a “color run” in that card? We looked up what would constitute a color run and it made no sense. There are like 10 different, but that’s just the start. There are many different other colors and versions based on which boxes you are opening. All in all, if you got every available card in that pose (from all the different boxes that could have that pose), it would be like 40 of them. Several are red, but one is wave and one is cracked ice and one is prizim, same with blue and green. And some have signatures and some dont. Some are 1 of 1s or 1 of 5 bc they are gold or black and bc it says it on the back. Some are camouflage and are worth more than signatures bc the cami is rarer (despite no auto). But anyway you slice it, there are many variations of that Jonathan Taylor pose - same pic, just different color, or auto, or limited edition (number on back). The pose is hardly rare. In fact, it’s super common. The rarity is the color, or background, or number.

Admittedly, the t206 Cobb pose is on different cards, as is the case with many of the Horner portraits and/or early cards (e107 has many same poses as t206, w600, etc and e92 has same poses as e101-106 and t216 etc). So I concede that even my beloved prewar uses the same poses over and over. But for some reason I can follow that but get lost looking at 2020 Jonathan Taylor cards.

Agreed, what a perfect example. As a side note, I was piddling around the PSA registry today and came across what I would assume is your set. Beautiful collection! Congrats on 100%.

[Snowman]

While Morant is again sidelined due to another injury (knee), the Grizzlies continue to demolish every other team in the league. They just beat the Bucks, with a healthy Giannis, by 25 points the night before last. Tonight, they're up 63 to 37 over the Warriors at halftime.

All this talk about how Morant single-handedly turned them into a top team is hilarious. The soon to be 18-2 Morantless Grizzlies are the best team in the league when Morant isn't on the floor. That 90% win rate drops to 62.5% when he's out there (35-21). Again, don't get me wrong, I LOVE me some Ja Morant, but I'm getting really sick of this narrative about him being the reason for the Grizzlies' success this season. He's an absolutely electric player and so much fun to watch. But he's also a considerable defensive liability. Not as bad defensively as Trae Young (who just so happens to be the worst defensive player in the past 40+ years, literally), but he is certainly a below average defender.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

This is an absurd statement. Ja Morant is a younger and better basketball player than Doncic. Every GM in the league would take Morant over Luka given the choice.

I was asking my son if Ja Morant was still good. He said he is still good but after the gun incident nobody likes him. Then I started to wonder how his cards are doing and I remembered this thread and I saw this quote/ statement. Still accurate?

Also, it’s a fun reread. How has Doncic’s major rookie cards held up against the 52 Mantle over the past 2.5 years since I started this thread? My gut is the Mantle has done much much better than Doncic over the past 2.5 years.

[Gorditadogg]

I think Bobby's words are as true now as they were 2 1/2 years ago.

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[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I was asking my son if Ja Morant was still good. He said he is still good but after the gun incident nobody likes him. Then I started to wonder how his cards are doing and I remembered this thread and I saw this quote/ statement. Still accurate?

Also, it’s a fun reread. How has Doncic’s major rookie cards held up against the 52 Mantle over the past 2.5 years since I started this thread? My gut is the Mantle has done much much better than Doncic over the past 2.5 years.

Cursory examination of recent eBay auctions has the Doncics in the $10-$20k range and the Mantles in the $25-$50k range. I'm not sure in either case if these are the same ones that were going for low-mid 6-figures a couple of years. ago

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Cursory examination of recent eBay auctions has the Doncics in the $10-$20k range and the Mantles in the $25-$50k range. I'm not sure in either case if these are the same ones that were going for low-mid 6-figures a couple of years. ago

The OP compared the early 2022 auction prices of a 2018 Luca Doncic National Treasurers RPA to 99 graded BVG 9.5 to a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 7. At that time, a Doncic was at auction in PWCC and sitting at $280k before Buyers Premium and a Mantle being sold in the same auction was at $240k before Buyers Premium.

Looking on Ebay, Fanatics Collect (whatever that is) has the same exact Donci card discussed above as available for sale for $85,000. That is literally 25% of what it was at, with Buyer's premium, in January 2022. Wow, 75% reduction, and that's just asking price. My gut is at auction it sells for even less, which frankly, it should as I dont see why its worth more than $!0k.

Meanwhile, the last sale of a PSA 7, 1952 Topps Mantle, and the only 2024 example in VCP, was for $264k, which is the average of two late 2023 sales. While this is way down from a high of $468k in late 2022 (45%), its only down 8% from where it was in January 2022 (with BP) when the thread was started.

Bottom line, and I think we all know this: Doncic has completely crashed since early 2022 and, while 1952 Topps Mantle is down since that time, it has held up monumentally better than Doncic. Conclusion -- Mantle over Doncic 100 out of 100 times.

As for Morant vs Doncic...... I dont care; I only collect dead baseball players who were played before my grandparents were born

[vintagerookies51]

Aside from the obvious supply and demand explanation, it's simple. The same reason Rocket Lab's stock has been going crazy lately - speculation. While you may think Luka has done "nothing", he won ROTY and has been All-NBA 1st team every year since. The list of people to have done that is very small. Maybe just Duncan? I know LeBron and MJ didn't - they also didn't win a ring until they were 27 so there's a lot of time for Luka to add to his resume.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

The OP compared the early 2022 auction prices of a 2018 Luca Doncic National Treasurers RPA to 99 graded BVG 9.5 to a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 7. At that time, a Doncic was at auction in PWCC and sitting at $280k before Buyers Premium and a Mantle being sold in the same auction was at $240k before Buyers Premium.

Looking on Ebay, Fanatics Collect (whatever that is) has the same exact Donci card discussed above as available for sale for $85,000. That is literally 25% of what it was at, with Buyer's premium, in January 2022. Wow, 75% reduction, and that's just asking price. My gut is at auction it sells for even less, which frankly, it should as I dont see why its worth more than $!0k.

Meanwhile, the last sale of a PSA 7, 1952 Topps Mantle, and the only 2024 example in VCP, was for $264k, which is the average of two late 2023 sales. While this is way down from a high of $468k in late 2022 (45%), its only down 8% from where it was in January 2022 (with BP) when the thread was started.

Bottom line, and I think we all know this: Doncic has completely crashed since early 2022 and, while 1952 Topps Mantle is down since that time, it has held up monumentally better than Doncic. Conclusion -- Mantle over Doncic 100 out of 100 times.

As for Morant vs Doncic...... I dont care; I only collect dead baseball players who were played before my grandparents were born

There were a few PSA 8 Mantles that went for over 2M back in 2021 and one of these cards sold again last year for 1.1M - ouch!
Some dude bought a PSA 9 in 2021 for over 5M, and based on what happened to the 8, he'd probably lose millions if he sold today.

Another thing we have to look at here is ROI. Even before the pandemic, 99% of us couldn't afford to buy a 52T Mantle. Who had over 100k lying around for a PSA 7? But a Doncic NT or Mahomes NT or Curry NT or LeBron Exquisite RPA, etc. was doable. If you bought any of these modern cards back then for 5k or 10k or even 20k, and you were to sell today, then your ROI is gonna' be much better (compared to buying a PSA 7 Mantle for 120k and selling for double today).

[Golfcollector]

Originally Posted by Tabe

It's really pretty simple - demand. Modern basketball has a worldwide audience to a level that vintage baseball doesn't.

100% Truth

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

I think Bobby's words are as true now as they were 2 1/2 years ago.

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I strongly disagree. In fact, I would wager good money that there isn't a single GM in the entire league that would take Morant over Doncic, given the choice. Not one.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by vintagerookies51

Aside from the obvious supply and demand explanation, it's simple. The same reason Rocket Lab's stock has been going crazy lately - speculation. While you may think Luka has done "nothing", he won ROTY and has been All-NBA 1st team every year since. The list of people to have done that is very small. Maybe just Duncan? I know LeBron and MJ didn't - they also didn't win a ring until they were 27 so there's a lot of time for Luka to add to his resume.

He also carried a mediocre team to the NBA Finals last year.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I strongly disagree. In fact, I would wager good money that there isn't a single GM in the entire league that would take Morant over Doncic, given the choice. Not one.

Hah. Bobby's comments were 0% true 2 1/2 years ago and still 0% true today. 0=0. Equally as true.

[uniship]

What I found surprising was just a staggering amount of dollars being thrown at modern. Whether it was a good investment or not.

(And of course, all of us original old vintage gangsters see modern investments as mostly silly and insane. - let’s all admit we’re extremely biased).

But seeing the sheer volume of dollars being spent on a Justin Herbert rookie gave me great hope that there’s tremendous upside in true vintage rarities and iconic cards because historically we just hadn’t seen that kind of dollars being spent on a regular basis until the modern insanity kicked in

So please let them continue to love the modern world and spend tens of millions of dollars or maybe hundreds of millions of dollars so that one day when they wise up they can come down to the vintage world and we can all profit handsomely

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

The OP compared the early 2022 auction prices of a 2018 Luca Doncic National Treasurers RPA to 99 graded BVG 9.5 to a 1952 Topps Mantle PSA 7. At that time, a Doncic was at auction in PWCC and sitting at $280k before Buyers Premium and a Mantle being sold in the same auction was at $240k before Buyers Premium.

Looking on Ebay, Fanatics Collect (whatever that is) has the same exact Donci card discussed above as available for sale for $85,000. That is literally 25% of what it was at, with Buyer's premium, in January 2022. Wow, 75% reduction, and that's just asking price. My gut is at auction it sells for even less, which frankly, it should as I dont see why its worth more than $!0k.

Meanwhile, the last sale of a PSA 7, 1952 Topps Mantle, and the only 2024 example in VCP, was for $264k, which is the average of two late 2023 sales. While this is way down from a high of $468k in late 2022 (45%), its only down 8% from where it was in January 2022 (with BP) when the thread was started.

Bottom line, and I think we all know this: Doncic has completely crashed since early 2022 and, while 1952 Topps Mantle is down since that time, it has held up monumentally better than Doncic. Conclusion -- Mantle over Doncic 100 out of 100 times.

As for Morant vs Doncic...... I dont care; I only collect dead baseball players who were played before my grandparents were born

I bought an Iverson rookie insert for my son 5 years ago for $133. in 2021 it shot up to over $1000, with one goofy sale on 2/15/21 of $3888. This year the prices have settled down and are in the $400s. The basketball market has been a wild ride.

[packs]

LeBron Topps Chrome rookies have taken a serious hit. They were selling for prices that weren't far off from Jordan for a while. In the last REA auction a 9.5 went for $1,300.

[ullmandds]

i'd be very curious to know production #'s of modern crap. Seems like a neverending supply?

[rjackson44]

Originally Posted by packs

LeBron Topps Chrome rookies have taken a serious hit. They were selling for prices that weren't far off from Jordan for a while. In the last REA auction a 9.5 went for $1,300.

i sold two lebron psa 10 s chromes 30 k each now ,,,well good luck with that pete ,hope your well

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i'd be very curious to know production #'s of modern crap. Seems like a neverending supply?

Too generalized a statement. Quite a few issues have a relatively low production number, and many are serially numbered. Overall, of course, there is a huge supply.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

I bought an Iverson rookie insert for my son 5 years ago for $133. in 2021 it shot up to over $1000, with one goofy sale on 2/15/21 of $3888. This year the prices have settled down and are in the $400s. The basketball market has been a wild ride.

I bought a bunch of Darius Garland rookie cards at the height of the market for about $300 each. Not my best investment. They dropped to $10 earlier this year, and now with Cleveland in first place they've rallied to $30.

But this is the same market in which I bought a bunch of Leo Messi cards for $20 each and sold them later the same year for $800-$1000 each, so I suppose it worked out alright on balance.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by uniship

So please let them continue to love the modern world and spend tens of millions of dollars or maybe hundreds of millions of dollars so that one day when they wise up they can come down to the vintage world and we can all profit handsomely

And that has already happened. Vintage HOF rookies have been brought to crazy levels by the modern crowd. For example, you used to be able to buy a PSA 1 Leaf Jackie for under a grand, but now you need 5 - 6k. You need about 25k just to own the ugliest 52T Mantle you can find.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i'd be very curious to know production #'s of modern crap. Seems like a neverending supply?

There is a never-ending supply of Clemente rookies, Koufax, Aaron, Brown, Unitas, etc. Looks like Topps had their printers running 7/24/365!

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i'd be very curious to know production #'s of modern crap. Seems like a neverending supply?

Billions and billions of modern crap. Small amounts of modern good stuff.

[packs]

I'm not sure about modern print runs. For a product like 2024 Bowman Draft, the retail price was over $500 and that was if you bought directly from Topps.

That's a big price tag. Breakers will buy them up in large quantities compared to individual collectors, but how much product gets printed when it comes with a price tag like that?

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

I bought a bunch of Darius Garland rookie cards at the height of the market for about $300 each. Not my best investment. They dropped to $10 earlier this year, and now with Cleveland in first place they've rallied to $30.



But this is the same market in which I bought a bunch of Leo Messi cards for $20 each and sold them later the same year for $800-$1000 each, so I suppose it worked out alright on balance.

Sure, and that's the other side of it. If you are collecting cards of active players, their prices are going to go all over the place based on how they are playing.

The point I was trying to make is that if you look at the basketball card market since 2021, it looks like it is tanking, but if you look at it over the last 5 years or longer, prices are way up. Iverson has been out of the league for 15 years. His cards go up or down based on the market demand for NBA stars. To pick a different player, Kobe's prices are similar. His Chrome refractor rookie was $6k in 2019, ran all the way up to $118k, and is now at $18.

The reason Doncic cards have gone down is because of the overall market, not because of Doncic specifically.

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[Peter_Spaeth]

Jokic. His numbers, at his age, are unreal.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Billions and billions of modern crap. Small amounts of modern good stuff.

That is the correct answer!

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

His Chrome refractor rookie was $6k in 2019, ran all the way up to $118k, and is now at $18.

Not that there's there's any point either in trying to assign rhyme or reason to the flights of speculative fancy that characterize the card "market".

[egri]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

And that has already happened. Vintage HOF rookies have been brought to crazy levels by the modern crowd. For example, you used to be able to buy a PSA 1 Leaf Jackie for under a grand, but now you need 5 - 6k. You need about 25k just to own the ugliest 52T Mantle you can find.

When I started my signed 1953 Topps project in 2014, Stachel Paige was a $1,000 card, and there was always one, if not a few, on eBay. Maybe $1,200 if the buyer had to have it now, or $800 if the seller was trying to move it quickly, and it stayed at that level until the pandemic. In 2020, it started becoming a $2,000 card, and I figured there were some old ones being brought out of the woodwork by the higher prices and things would settle down. Instead, it has continued to climb; I was blown out on one a few months ago at over $8,000, and he doesn't come up as often as he used to either.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Jokic. His numbers, at his age, are unreal.

Agree. The Joker just keeps getting better. For a guy that plays below the rim it is crazy to see how much he controls the game. He could get another MVP this year, although Giannis and Shai are having amazing years as well.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Agree. The Joker just keeps getting better. For a guy that plays below the rim it is crazy to see how much he controls the game. He could get another MVP this year, although Giannis and Shai are having amazing years as well.

I'm not sure how significant the EFF stat is at the end of the day, but Jokic is just crushing everyone else even Giannis. 10.6 assists per game so far, that's absurd for a big man.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Agree. The Joker just keeps getting better. For a guy that plays below the rim it is crazy to see how much he controls the game. He could get another MVP this year, although Giannis and Shai are having amazing years as well.

Honestly, he could win a sort of triple crown this season (points, rebounds, assists) which isn't a thing only because no one's ever done it.

[vintagerookies51]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I'm not sure how significant the EFF stat is at the end of the day, but Jokic is just crushing everyone else even Giannis. 10.6 assists per game so far, that's absurd for a big man.

And at the same time leading the league in RBD and 2nd in points. I'm in a fantasy league and he's just head and shoulders above everyone else. Also shows people who don't understand how someone like Larry Bird could've dominated back in the day

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I'm not sure how significant the EFF stat is at the end of the day....

It's a really significant stat, especially when used in conjunction with the +/- number.

[samosa4u]

https://goldin.co/item/2018-panini-p...0-psa-gemkqzd3

100k USD for Josh f**king Allen! Zero Super Bowl appearances!

[samosa4u]

https://goldin.co/item/2023-panini-s...JkSW5kZXgiOjF9

https://goldin.co/item/2023-24-panin...JkSW5kZXgiOjB9

Crazy ... just crazy ... and only in his second season ...

[Misunderestimated]

For many I think acquiring/investing in cards of contemporary players -- especially basketball -- is part of being a fan.
It's a different inspiration that collecting vintage cards. Buying a card of Doncic, Jokic, or Josh Allen is way of rooting for them and "betting" on their success during the season. Nothing like building a T206 set, or trying to pick up cards of every hall of famer from their careers

[Peter_Spaeth]

Obviously the guys buying these types of cards have lots of play money and I am guessing most are relatively young. I suspect a good part of it driven by social media and bragging rights.

[esd10]

Let me first say this mickey mantle is one of the greatest to play the game but I believe the 52t mantle is over valued based on it being a double print and a ton of them in private collection and for sale. Cards of babe ruth even his rookie card dont bring the same money as a 52t mantle in comparable grades and they are a heck of alot rarer than that mantle card.

[Snapolit1]

People buy Luka rookie cards for the same reason they buy a bitcoin . . . they are convinced past appreciation will guarantee a great investment. No one stares at it and oohs and ahs.

People buy 52 Mantles for all sort of other reasons. Yes, for many an investment, but other factors in play.

[Rich Klein]

There has been an increase in interest in Luka RC's since the trade (as long as you live outside the DFW area)

Getting traded to LA and hopefully for him learning to get in shape the way LeBron stays in great condition will push his cards up a level or two.

And as for modern cards v the old timers. That has been going on for nearly 50 years now. When Mark "The Bird" Fidrych cards came out in 1977 after he became famous you could sell his cards for more than HOFers or guaranteed HOFers of most 1960's cards. Nearly 50 years later people still like to bet on the future which is not guaranteed instead of the more sure shot players.

Rich

[samosa4u]

Mavericks are garbage. They couldn't surround Luka with the right players and then they trade him for an older player who is always injured ??

Hopefully LA can make all the right moves and get him a ring or two. But even still, the amount of money people spent on his cards during the pandemic is staggering and I am not sure if they will ever get it back.