2016 Hall of Fame Choices

[Huck]

Mike Mussina won 270 games (era a tad high), look around fellas when do you think a player will post 270 career wins? Pedro had 219 wins, Schilling 216, show Moose some respect. We might not see another 300 win pitcher in our lifetime. I think 250 wins will be the new barometer of greatness.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by biohazard

Mike Mussina won 270 games (era a tad high), look around fellas when do you think a player will post 270 career wins? Pedro had 219 wins, Schilling 216, show Moose some respect. We might not see another 300 win pitcher in our lifetime. I think 250 wins will be the new barometer of greatness.

Another guy who ironically perhaps was too consistent and not occasionally spectacular enough. But his numbers are quite good and it's surprising how little attention he has received.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

4 AS teams. Never above 4th in MVP and only two top 10s. Didn't reach 2000 hits. Baseball reference numbers:

Gray Ink Batting - 60 (426), Average HOFer ≈ 144

Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 88 (202), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 39 (175), Average HOFer ≈ 50

JAWS Center Field (14th), 60.3 career WAR/42.5 7yr-peak WAR/51.4 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.0 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS

In a word, no. In two words, no way.

Peter,

Are you so sure?

Take a look at JAWS using Fangraphs WAR instead of the BR WAR that you used. There are four HOFers at the CF position who are so far above the rest that they skew any "averages" as a result. Their career WAR numbers are so high that do you know whose career WAR is only a very small amount "above average" for a HOFer?

Ken Griffey Jr.

If you take Mays, Mantle, Cobb and Speaker out of the equation, take a look at where Edmonds rates against HOF CF in career WAR per Fangraphs:

DiMaggio 83.1
Griffey Jr 77.7
Hamilton (Billy) 70.3
Edmonds 64.5
Snider 63.5
Carey 60.1
Dawson 59.5
Ashburn 57.4
Doby 51.1
Roush 49.6
Duffy 48.3
Averill 47.9
Puckett 44.9
Wilson 42.1
Combs 41.3

Those are the OF used in the JAWS calculation on BR (plus Griffeyband Edmonds).

How about peak 7 year WAR without Cobb or Mantle or Mays or Speaker factored in?

DiMaggio 52.5
Griffey 51.1
Snider 47.5
Edmonds 45.4
Hamilton 45.2
Ashburn 40.8
Doby 39.8
Dawson 38.4
Wilson 38.4
Averill 37.3
Duffy 35.8
Carey 34.4
Puckett 33.9
Combs 33.3
Roush 32.7

Yet Edmonds is going to get less than 5% of the vote and not be eligible again? Seriously?

Tom C

[Peter_Spaeth]

Similarity ScoresExplanation of Similarity Scores


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[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Peter,

Are you so sure?

Take a look at JAWS using Fangraphs WAR instead of the BR WAR that you used. There are four HOFers at the CF position who are so far above the rest that they skew any "averages" as a result. Their career WAR numbers are so high that do you know whose career WAR is only a very small amount "above average" for a HOFer?

Ken Griffey Jr.

If you take Mays, Mantle, Cobb and Speaker out of the equation, take a look at where Edmonds rates against HOF CF in career WAR per Fangraphs:

DiMaggio 83.1
Griffey Jr 77.7
Hamilton (Billy) 70.3
Edmonds 64.5
Snider 63.5
Carey 60.1
Dawson 59.5
Ashburn 57.4
Doby 51.1
Roush 49.6
Duffy 48.3
Averill 47.9
Puckett 44.9
Wilson 42.1
Combs 41.3

Those are the OF used in the JAWS calculation on BR (plus Griffeyband Edmonds).

How about peak 7 year WAR without Cobb or Mantle or Mays or Speaker factored in?

DiMaggio 52.5
Griffey 51.1
Snider 47.5
Edmonds 45.4
Hamilton 45.2
Ashburn 40.8
Doby 39.8
Dawson 38.4
Wilson 38.4
Averill 37.3
Duffy 35.8
Carey 34.4
Puckett 33.9
Combs 33.3
Roush 32.7

Yet Edmonds is going to get less than 5% of the vote and not be eligible again? Seriously?

Tom C

All well and good, but he is a .284 hitter with 1900 hits. Who never led the league in a single category. I'm not beating the drum on this one.

[btcarfagno]

Similarity scores are offense only and not position specific.

Tom C

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

All well and good, but he is a .284 hitter with 1900 hits. I'm not beating the drum on this one.

I'm not saying he is a HOFer...but one and done? He's getting the Ted Simmons treatment?

Tom C

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

All well and good, but he is a .284 hitter with 1900 hits. Who never led the league in a single category. I'm not beating the drum on this one.

Also, are we really going with batting average as a top factor for HOF consideration? This isn't 1925 anymore.

Tom C

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

I'm not saying he is a HOFer...but one and done? He's getting the Ted Simmons treatment?

Tom C

Fair enough, he was a very good player. Simmons was closer to a HOFer though I think.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Fair enough, he was a very good player. Simmons was closer to a HOFer though I think.

I would agree. But both are going to be one time only players on the ballot it looks like.

I just don't get it.

Tom C

[Huck]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

I would agree. But both are going to be one time only players on the ballot it looks like.

I just don't get it.

Tom C

Defense only gets one into the hall of fame if by chance ones career happens to include a walk off home run in the seventh game of the World Series.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by biohazard

Defense only gets one into the hall of fame if by chance ones career happens to include a walk off home run in the seventh game of the World Series.

Very true. And apparently legendary defense plus 393 career home runs and an OPS+ of 132 gets you less than 5% of the vote.

Bah.

Tom C

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by billyb

I just cannot believe Trammell not getting any respect from anyone. The guys offensive numbers are on the bubble for his position, for HOF enshrinement, but when you add in his defensive achievements, he should walk into the Hall of Fame. Four gold gloves, and three silver sluggers awards, 7 times an all star, I believe 7 times getting votes as League MVP, In his career, he only struck out 24 more times then he walked. Career on base percentage of 352 for a shortstop. His one and only time he played in the World Series and he won the MVP. His WAR number just behind Jeter. And not one consideration, WOW. I am surprised.

I've said on more than one occasion that I think Trammell deserves induction, and I included him on my ballot in the other discussion on the sports talk page.

He compares quite favorably with other Hall of Fame shortstops:

The average career WAR of HoF shortstops: 66.7. Trammell's career WAR: 70.4
The average 7-year peak WAR of HoF shortstops: 42.8 WAR. Trammell's 7 year peak: 44.6

Compare his seven year peak WAR to that of his contemporary, Robin Yount, who is in the Hall of Fame: 47.2 WAR

I also happen to think Trammell's double play partner, Lou Whitaker, deserves serious consideration for the Hall. Inexplicably, he received only 2.9% of the vote the one time he appeared on the ballot. When you look at Whitaker's similarity scores, and see the players he is most similar to are Ryne Sandberg, Trammell, Roberto Alomar, Buddy Bell and Joe Morgan, I don't get the lack of support for his induction. Whitaker was a Rookie of the Year, a five-time All Star, won three Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers, and his 74.9 WAR is eleventh all-time at the position. His lifetime stats are quite good for the position: 1,386 runs scored, 2,369 hits, 420 doubles, 244 home runs, 1,084 RBI, 143 SB, 1,197 BB vs 1,099 Ks, and a .363/.426/.789 slash line.

By the way, Jeff Kent's career WAR is only 55.2. His numbers, at first glance, are far sexier than Whitaker's, but Kent also played during one of the greatest offensive boons in baseball history. Put it this way, between 1977 and 1995 (the years Whitaker played the game), there were 3 50 home run seasons. Between 1992 and 2008 (the years Kent played the game), there were 23 50 home run seasons. 100 RBI seasons? Between 1977 and 1995, there were 284. Between 1992 and 2008, there were 584. The difference in 100 RBI seasons between Whitaker's era and Kent's, 300, is more than the total of 100 RBI seasons in the entirety of Whitaker's era. This is why context is always important when judging a player based solely on their statistics. Another statistic to consider: there were 11 130 RBI seasons between 1977 and 1995. There were 76 130 RBI seasons between 1992 and 2008.

In Jeff Kent's best RBI season, 1998 when he had 128, there were 42 players in the Majors who drove in over 100 runs. While Kent was certainly an offensive force, some perspective is needed. In his MVP season, he had a 1.021 OPS. Most years, that would lead the league, if not the Majors. His OPS was only the third highest on his own team. Ellis Burks had a 1.025 OPS, and Barry Bonds had a 1.127 OPS. In fact, his 1.021 OPS was 17th best in the Majors (450 PA's minimum), behind such superstars like Brian Giles and Richard Hidalgo.

Kent will likely make the Hall, and I'm not saying that he is undeserving. But he's not the slam dunk some are making him out to be.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by biohazard

Defense only gets one into the hall of fame if by chance ones career happens to include a walk off home run in the seventh game of the World Series.

I don't know, I think being the very best defender to ever play ones position makes for a pretty compelling case all by itself.

[Huck]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

I don't know, I think being the very best defender to ever play ones position makes for a pretty compelling case all by itself.

I totally agree with Bill Mazeroski that "defense belongs in the hall of fame". I just don't think the people who vote feel the same way. I also agree that Whitaker and Trammell should be enshrined.

[SteveMitchell]

I like Peter Gammons' 2016 Hall of Fame selections and most of his reasoning in a recent MLB Tonight interview:

Jeff Bagwell
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mike Mussina
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Curt Schilling
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

Gammons added that he would like to have voted for three or four more.

PED's were discussed briefly and the cases of Bonds/Clemens (not among PG's selections) vs. some on his ballot who have only been hinted as possible abusers. A link to the interview: http://m.mlb.com/bal/video/topic/600...of-fame-ballot

As one who would like to see an enlarged Hall of Fame membership, I identify with most of Peter Gammons' comments and every one of his picks - including those he excluded.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by biohazard

I totally agree with Bill Mazeroski that "defense belongs in the hall of fame". I just don't think the people who vote feel the same way. I also agree that Whitaker and Trammell should be enshrined.

And Mazeroski isn't the only one. Ozzie Smith, Brooks Robinson, Rabbit Maranville and several catchers are in the hof based on their defense.