Card Shows: Tech as a servant or master?

[brunswickreeves]

Technology is a useful servant but a dangerous master.” -Christian Louis Lange

What are thoughts (dealer/vendor and buyer/show attendee perspectives) on VCP tech use at live shows? Good, bad, or indifferent?

When deals were going down at the GBSCC show, I observed every dealer use VCP and took a lot of time to search for averages and lowest available comps of cards in same grade (despite in some cases dismal condition of those referenced in VCP, in comparison to a same grade card of better condition attempted to be sold or traded to the dealer by show attendee). Dealers reduced that lowest comp by 15-25% or even turned the attendee’s walk up card away completely since not enough margin in it. Great for the dealer to pay the least possible money for the best possible ROI.

Similarly, show attendees looking to sell or trade with dealers utilize VCP to rationalize why their card deserves a certain amount of money or trade value based on trending or same grade/same condition comps. Great for the show attendee who otherwise may not have had a clue about their card’s value.

However, for both stakeholders further along the card value maturity curve, antidotally dealer’s listed card prices for top-notch vintage are still aligned to the 2021-2023 Covid-boom, causing VCP to create an impasse (unstoppable force meet immovable object) and impediment to a square and expedient deal.

So has VCP tech been a useful servant or a master?

[gunboat82]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

However, for both stakeholders further along the card value maturity curve, antidotally dealer’s listed card prices for top-notch vintage are still aligned to the 2021-2023 Covid-boom, causing VCP to create an impasse (unstoppable force meet immovable object) and impediment to a square and expedient deal.

You're probably right that there's a bit of an impasse. I left GBSCC after an hour because I saw many of the cards I saw last year and the year before at the same or higher prices.

Even when there are cards that are priced to move, it seems like the dealers cannibalize each other's inventory. I had my eye on a particular slabbed Cracker Jack card that was at one GBSCC table last year, and I was close to pulling the trigger but held off. This year, the same card was at a different dealer's table but was marked up about 45%. I don't know if they're all consigning to each other, but it feels like the circle is getting smaller.

[notfast]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

Technology is a useful servant but a dangerous master.” -Christian Louis Lange

What are thoughts (dealer/vendor and buyer/show attendee perspectives) on VCP tech use at live shows? Good, bad, or indifferent?

When deals were going down at the GBSCC show, I observed every dealer use VCP and took a lot of time to search for averages and lowest available comps of cards in same grade (despite in some cases dismal condition of those referenced in VCP, in comparison to a same grade card of better condition attempted to be sold or traded to the dealer by show attendee). Dealers reduced that lowest comp by 15-25% or even turned the attendee’s walk up card away completely since not enough margin in it. Great for the dealer to pay the least possible money for the best possible ROI.

Similarly, show attendees looking to sell or trade with dealers utilize VCP to rationalize why their card deserves a certain amount of money or trade value based on trending or same grade/same condition comps. Great for the show attendee who otherwise may not have had a clue about their card’s value.

However, for both stakeholders further along the card value maturity curve, antidotally dealer’s listed card prices for top-notch vintage are still aligned to the 2021-2023 Covid-boom, causing VCP to create an impasse (unstoppable force meet immovable object) and impediment to a square and expedient deal.

So has VCP tech been a useful servant or a master?

What is the alternative? A notebook with pricing? Going off memory?

Originally Posted by gunboat82

You're probably right that there's a bit of an impasse. I left GBSCC after an hour because I saw many of the cards I saw last year and the year before at the same or higher prices.

Even when there are cards that are priced to move, it seems like the dealers cannibalize each other's inventory. I had my eye on a particular slabbed Cracker Jack card that was at one GBSCC table last year, and I was close to pulling the trigger but held off. This year, the same card was at a different dealer's table but was marked up about 45%. I don't know if they're all consigning to each other, but it feels like the circle is getting smaller.

A year is a VERY long time…for cards to be bought and sold and for pricing to change…

[Eric72]

As a preface, I mainly collect T206 and vintage Topps cards. There is plenty of pricing info available on these.

Having said this, here's my card show attendee (buyer) perspective:

I do my research before going to the show. For the most part, while I'm there, my phone stays in my pocket.

I have a want list with me. The prices I'm willing to pay are on that list. If I bring cards to sell or trade, they're already priced.

My recent (2020s) card show experience has been confined to the Philly Show. It's a large regional show with lots of dealer tables. I'd rather not waste time "looking up comps" during the show, especially since I can do that in advance. The show is too big to waste time doing something I could have done before I got there.

It's the buyer's analog to dealers who put price stickers on their cards. Quick and easy.,

[brunswickreeves]

Every post needs a card…here are a few Mickeys (not Mantle) I pick up at the GBSCC show. I’m sure I paid up on them, but was happy to bring home some vintage Disney…

[Huck]

Originally Posted by Eric72

I do my research before going to the show. For the most part, while I'm there, my phone stays in my pocket.

I have a want list with me. The prices I'm willing to pay are on that list. If I bring cards to sell or trade, they're already priced.

+1 - Well said.

[G1911]

I’m not clear how looking up actual sales of an item when considering a deal on that item is making tech ones master. Seems like a pretty reasonable thing common sense thing to do. I would never object to someone using a valid dataset to check pricing. What is wrong with using data?

[gunboat82]

Originally Posted by notfast

What is the alternative? A notebook with pricing? Going off memory?



A year is a VERY long time…for cards to be bought and sold and for pricing to change…

Sure, but this card (and most of the cards displayed at GBSCC) have also been listed in Facebook groups, Instagram, etc. in the interim. The price hike didn't happen organically due to the passage of time and an increase in demand.

To be clear, I don't have any problem with flipping or arbitrage. My only point is that buyers and sellers have access to the same information, and it's going to be harder for sellers to get Y when the buyer saw it for X just yesterday.

That's not an issue for the super-high-end investors with ultra-rare cards that rarely change hands, but it is a factor when selling cards that pop up frequently.

[Musashi]

How is it different from the 80's and 90's, when people walked around shows with a Beckett or Tuff Stuff (or had one with them behind the table for dealers)?

[brunswickreeves]

I don’t think dealers were picking the lowest purchase price from the past 36 issues of Beckett, or pricing the sale of their cards from the most expensive issue either…tech has enabled a much further reaching view to pick from, given VCP averages over a significant time horizon and makes data aggregation more accessible.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by gunboat82

You're probably right that there's a bit of an impasse. I left GBSCC after an hour because I saw many of the cards I saw last year and the year before at the same or higher prices.

Even when there are cards that are priced to move, it seems like the dealers cannibalize each other's inventory. I had my eye on a particular slabbed Cracker Jack card that was at one GBSCC table last year, and I was close to pulling the trigger but held off. This year, the same card was at a different dealer's table but was marked up about 45%. I don't know if they're all consigning to each other, but it feels like the circle is getting smaller.

I feel like the last paragraph is indicative of most shows these days.

[skelly]

In all seriousness, if it is a rare card, or a very valuable card, then both the seller & buyer are in the right to do a little on site research. I got a little frustrated a couple weeks ago when I was hoping to buy a beat to heck 62 Bob Gibson for my 1962 set that I am looking to complete with cards in vg- poor condition. The Gibson had paper loss from being taped and wear on top of that. The card was not graded. Five minutes later I get quoted a price on what the average PSA 1 sells for. In my opinion that’s a case of technology getting in the way. Kinda like using a GPS when you should know where you’re going.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Originally Posted by skelly

Kinda like using a GPS when you should know where you’re going.

What a superb analogy. What else should we expect from today's society? Blindly relying on technology when the answer is already known.

I try my best not to be one of those people. Today, just to prove my point, I was one of them on purpose. I had to drive across my city. I already knew the fastest way to go and how long it should take on a Saturday. Google Maps gave me a completely different way, one which anybody in this town would realize was ridiculous. It also claimed to shave four minutes off of the way I would have taken. I took the Google-recommended way. It was 18 minutes longer than they claimed it would be. No big surprise there, but I wanted to see just how wrong they truly were.

[Exhibitman]

I did a column on this:

https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.c...ayagot?r=ff7k7

A pertinent excerpt:

The comparison shoppers, or as I call them, the comp bandits...you know them, the guys who search their phones and announce that an example the card you have ticketed at $50 sold a month ago for $40. I run into this all the time and my answer is usually "that's very interesting, thanks for the information. I think you should buy it on eBay." Gets some real head-scratching in response, so let me dig into it.

With rare exceptions, a comp bandit is deluding himself if he thinks he is educating me on price. I already know what my items are worth, which is how I priced them—and I price everything I put on my table. ...

Another consideration is how the comp has to be adjusted for context. The comp bandits don't think about what an eBay comp represents. A sale online and in person are not the same, especially in lower priced cards. The financial reality is that most buyers at a show are already enjoying a substantial discount over the online cost to them simply by taking shipping out of the equation and having sales tax folded into the price, so the online comp is more of an apples to oranges comparison. When I price cards for sale, I check comps on eBay and I factor in the shipping cost and taxes as a component of sale. A $1 card with a $4 shipping cost is really a $5 card, not a $1 card, so coming at me with a $1 comp and demanding the card for a buck is not a fair or honest comparison. I prefer to think it happens because a substantial majority of collectors simply forget the shipping costs and sales taxes when looking at an online price, especially if the data scraping app they are using doesn’t add shipping to the costs, but that’s just me, lover of humanity (insert roll-eyes emoji here).

[x2drich2000]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Another consideration is how the comp has to be adjusted for context. The comp bandits don't think about what an eBay comp represents. A sale online and in person are not the same, especially in lower priced cards. The financial reality is that most buyers at a show are already enjoying a substantial discount over the online cost to them simply by taking shipping out of the equation and having sales tax folded into the price, so the online comp is more of an apples to oranges comparison. When I price cards for sale, I check comps on eBay and I factor in the shipping cost and taxes as a component of sale. A $1 card with a $4 shipping cost is really a $5 card, not a $1 card, so coming at me with a $1 comp and demanding the card for a buck is not a fair or honest comparison. I prefer to think it happens because a substantial majority of collectors simply forget the shipping costs and sales taxes when looking at an online price, especially if the data scraping app they are using doesn’t add shipping to the costs, but that’s just me, lover of humanity (insert roll-eyes emoji here).

Adam, I half agree with your analysis, but you have to also look at it the other way around as well. Why would the $1 offer be unfair or dishonest? That $1 card with $4 shipping, as a seller, you are paying $4 to ship to the customer, Ebay/Paypal are taking their fee, and the tax is just going to the state not to you. As a result, on the $5 online sale, the seller is netting less than $1. That $1 offer nets the seller more than than selling it online. The key is finding that happy medium where both the seller and the buyer are coming out better, Unfortunately, my experience is that most seller and buyers want the whole savings their way rather than working on something in the middle.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by x2drich2000

Adam, I half agree with your analysis, but you have to also look at it the other way around as well. Why would the $1 offer be unfair or dishonest? That $1 card with $4 shipping, as a seller, you are paying $4 to ship to the customer, Ebay/Paypal are taking their fee, and the tax is just going to the state not to you. As a result, on the $5 online sale, the seller is netting less than $1. That $1 offer nets the seller more than than selling it online. The key is finding that happy medium where both the seller and the buyer are coming out better, Unfortunately, my experience is that most seller and buyers want the whole savings their way rather than working on something in the middle.

I don't disagree with a happy medium but that is not how the comp bandits roll. They want it for the eBay price, period. Also, in a state with sales tax eBay makes the buyer pay it, but at a show buyers do not expect sellers to whip out the calculators and charge the sales tax.

You are also missing the context. Costs of sale on eBay are dramatically different than cost of sales at card shows.

Table fees at the Anaheim show last summer were $600 for an eight-foot table. The host convention hotel room rate for three nights is a total of $597, plus $90 to park, $45 for internet access, and 20% tourist taxes. My $597 stay becomes an $880 stay (rounded). Add to that at least another $50 a day to eat, and my travel cost amounts to $1,030. That's $1,630 just to be there and set up. Say I did a really good job of buying and I make 50% for each card I sell. The first $3,260 in gross sales is my break-even point. But wait, I also have to pay sales taxes, pushing my break-even point to about $3500. That’s the risk I take when I set up. Every sale goes towards covering that nut.

On eBay, I incur no costs unless and until an item sells, other than $300 a year for the storefront. The buyer also pays the shipping, the sales taxes, and a handling fee I add to every listing to cover my materials and the final value fees I have to pay on the shipping cost and the sales taxes (because eBay has turned those into profit centers too). My total overhead for eBay averages about 15% of sales.

If you want card shows to exist, and if you want sellers to offer cards for all budgets, you will pay more for an item than on eBay because of the sunk cost overhead that is non-existent on eBay. I run a pickers' table; i serve the middle-class collecting community. My customers are not the ones buying three-four-five figure cards in slabs. I sell a lot but I don't sell much that costs over $100 per card. A $2,000 day is a good gross for me. If I do $5-$6K at a four-day show, that's solid. Given the math, I can list a modestly-priced card on eBay at rock bottom prices but when you ask me to sell a card for the eBay price at a show, you are literally making it financially impossible for me to set up because you are cutting out the profit I need to pay overhead. If I do that, I might as well just skip it or put out expensive slabs only.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

...When I price cards for sale, I check comps on eBay and I factor in the shipping cost and taxes as a component of sale...

I do the same thing, even though I'm usually on the buying side.

I collect mostly T206 and vintage Topps cards. There are plenty of sales just on eBay for these. In other words, it's very easy to find "comps" for the stuff I buy at shows.

When creating my "want list" in advance of the show, I use Excel. I use Terapeak (eBay store tool) and chart the last 10 sales of each item. There are 3 columns:

1. The price a card has sold for
2. Shipping
3. Sales tax for my state

The total is what it would have cost me out-of-pocket to purchase that item.

I'll average the recent sales...and that's my "comp" for the card.

[theshowandme]

I am set up at the Shriners show this weekend helping a friend at his booth.

Every… single… card… is being looked up on the spot by potential buyers.

Had one buyer pull 3 stacks of Tom Brady graded cards (15-20 cards in total).

He looked up every one, and along the way made comments about how things were high.

He then offered $175 on a BGS 9 where the last raw one went for $310.

He told me, to my face, the last one did $190

Alright, game on.

I pull the card, look it up on CardLadder, and find the raw sale from July at $310.

The card is numbered to 25 and hasn’t sold since July.

He said, “as a COURTESY, that seller shills their auctions”

We pulled the cards back and put them back in the case.

I could not find the $190 sale. Maybe the last BGS 9 sold for that years ago but who knows.

I do not know what is in the water in Massachusetts, but that is about as dumb of an interaction I’ve ever had in cards.

Great show though overall. Having a ton of fun.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I am set up at the Shriners show this weekend helping a friend at his booth.

Every… single… card… is being looked up on the spot by potential buyers.

Had one buyer pull 3 stacks of Tom Brady graded cards (15-20 cards in total).

He looked up every one, and along the way made comments about how things were high.

He then offered $175 on a BGS 9 where the last raw one went for $310.

He told me, to my face, the last one did $190

Alright, game on.

I pull the card, look it up on CardLadder, and find the raw sale from July at $310.

The card is numbered to 25 and hasn’t sold since July.

He said, “as a COURTESY, that seller shills their auctions”

We pulled the cards back and put them back in the case.

I could not find the $190 sale. Maybe the last BGS 9 sold for that years ago but who knows.

I do not know what is in the water in Massachusetts, but that is about as dumb of an interaction I’ve ever had in cards.

Great show though overall. Having a ton of fun.

Don, glad you had fun but man, I don’t know how you do it. Some nasty people out there.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Don, glad you had fun but man, I don’t know how you do it. Some nasty people out there.

Please do not read it wrong. Don is right, there are frustrating individuals at every show but I'd say 90%+ of the people I interact with when I set up are nice folks who are passionate about their collections, happy to be at a show, and pleasant to deal with. The schmucks are the ones who make for the interesting anecdotes but they are a tiny minority of the overall community. Like here.

[steve B]

I went for the first time in a couple years.
I had a few things to sell, but it was stuff I hadn't really looked at in years.
When making a deal I asked if we could look up one of the better cards and figure from there. Commonly sold for less than I'd thought. Some quick guessing and Ok, how about X? (probably a bit more than I'd paid years ago, but low enough to leave some room for reselling) Deal.
Same with a handful of nicer cards. Probably could have gotten more selling myself, but a quick easy sale and we're both happy.

Technology can be a very good thing.

The kids have gotten old enough that I can be pretty sure they won't want the bulk of the collection, maybe only a few that are special to me.
So I need an exit plan for most of the rest.
Still collecting, just trying to be a bit more focused, not that I'll ever really get there.