Will the new Heritage and REA tobacco finds impact the market?

[parkplace33]

Interesting news broke this week about Heritage and REA finding larger group of prewar tobacco cards:

https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=341835

and

https://twitter.com/REAOnline/status...7Ctwgr%5Etweet

My question is does the auction of these tobacco cards impact the tobacco card market? I remember what the Black Swamp find has done to the E98 market, could the same happen here? Or will demand continue to exceed the supply?

Either way, it will be interesting to see how these do in the respective auction houses.

[oldjudge]

T206s are common cards and now they are just a little more common

[packs]

Did the Black Swamp find lower all E98's or only high grade copies?

I would actually prefer a lower grade copy in place of a Swamp card, but not sure they came down the same way.

[CJinPA]

Originally Posted by packs

Did the Black Swamp find lower all E98's or only high grade copies?

I would actually prefer a lower-grade copy in place of a Swamp card, but not sure they came down the same way.

I've heard this a couple of times from enthusiasts and I just don't understand it. I love the Black Swamp find collection - I don't collect the E98's at all but intend on adding at least one and it will most definitely be a BSF specimen because of the exceptional condition. To each his own - that's what makes this hobby so appealing!

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by CJinPA

I've heard this a couple of times from enthusiasts and I just don't understand it. I love the Black Swamp find collection - I don't collect the E98's at all but intend on adding at least one and it will most definitely be a BSF specimen because of the exceptional condition. To each his own - that's what makes this hobby so appealing!

The find definitely had an affect on the set, there's two camps, original circulation and BSF, personally I'm in the OC camp but there isn't a wrong way to collect the set. I think it would be more clear if BSF was designated as a separate set altogether since there were so many cards in the find. I don't know the exact number of E98s prior to BSF but I would guess it might have doubled the population which has a significant impact to the collecting dynamic prior to the find. Maybe some long time members who were collecting prior to the find can comment on the E98 world back then.

Good luck on your acquisition btw, go for Cobb if you can.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

T206s are common cards and now they are just a little more common

Basically agree here.

T206 are the 1988 Topps of the prewar world and likely had a similar run over the years of production. E98 just isn't comparable as it was nowhere close on quantity in circulation. These finds have notable effect on what may have been considered a scarce card or issue, not necessarily a common one.

Now what it does effect is temporary sales prices at the time if they flood the market. If there's 25 serious lookers for a specific card and 25 available, then obviously the auction prices will be low. We all know the supply for T206 is huge and other than a couple cards there are more than enough for everyone who wants one. The supply and demand curve on a plentiful item is much more evident in a short cycle with so many on the market and then levels back as the availability at one time returns to the normal levels.

[Lucas00]

Agree with other folks so far, they aren't very rare cards to begin with.

I don't see any kind of price change incoming.

[Rhotchkiss]

I think these PWCC, fire-sale, rare-back auctions are much more damaging to T206 values than the recent Heritage and REA finds will be.

As others have mentioned, its all about supply and demand. There are many T206s out there already. This means there is a already a lot of supply, and it appears there is already reciprocal demand. I don't think these finds bring so much new supply that it materially impacts demand.

On the other hand, these PWCC fire sales are killing the rare-back supply-demand dynamic and have resulted in a, likely mid-term, deflation of prices. For example, If 1 out of every 100 people collects sports cards, and 5 out of every 100 card collectors collect T206s, that means 0.05% of the population collects T206s (I am sure it is actually WAY smaller). Now, lets suppose that only 25% of T206 collectors care enough about the backs to pay up for a Lenox, we are talking about 0.0125% of the population who is interested in T206s with Lenox backs.

The PSA Pop report shows 293 Lenox graded (regardless of brown vs black) and the SGC Pop Report shows 259 Lenox graded. Thats only 552 Lenox (notwithstanding crossovers and there have been a ton thanks to David Hall). That's a very small supply to satiate the rather tiny demand. In one single auction, PWCC unloads 63 different Lenox cards -- about 11.5% of the entire graded population. That is way too much supply for the meager demand. Sure, seeing the opportunity, some not otherwise inclined to go after a Lenox did in this case, but they were likely rewarded with a relative steal.

Its all supply and demand, and there must be demand for the supply -- you could have a unique, 1 of 1 item, but if nobody wants it, its worthless. That is why rarity does not equal value.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I think these PWCC, fire-sale, rare-back auctions are much more damaging to T206 values than the recent Heritage and REA finds will be.

As others have mentioned, its all about supply and demand. There are many T206s out there already. This means there is a already a lot of supply, and it appears there is already reciprocal demand. I don't think these finds bring so much new supply that it materially impacts demand.

On the other hand, these PWCC fire sales are killing the rare-back supply-demand dynamic and have resulted in a, likely mid-term, deflation of prices. For example, If 1 out of every 100 people collects sports cards, and 5 out of every 100 card collectors collect T206s, that means 0.05% of the population collects T206s (I am sure it is actually WAY smaller). Now, lets suppose that only 25% of T206 collectors care enough about the backs to pay up for a Lenox, we are talking about 0.0125% of the population who is interested in T206s with Lenox backs.

The PSA Pop report shows 293 Lenox graded (regardless of brown vs black) and the SGC Pop Report shows 259 Lenox graded. Thats only 552 Lenox (notwithstanding crossovers and there have been a ton thanks to David Hall). That's a very small supply to satiate the rather tiny demand. In one single auction, PWCC unloads 63 different Lenox cards -- about 11.5% of the entire graded population. That is way too much supply for the meager demand. Sure, seeing the opportunity, some not otherwise inclined to go after a Lenox did in this case, but they were likely rewarded with a relative steal.

Its all supply and demand, and there must be demand for the supply -- you could have a unique, 1 of 1 item, but if nobody wants it, its worthless. That is why rarity does not equal value.

Cases like this are generally temporary price pressures. Dealers/flippers are often the winning bidders when cards under sell, and they will hold out on moving them until they receive what they believe are fair market values for them. I wouldn't worry about longer term ramifications. Those are driven by collectors.

I think the more important question is whether set collecting will still be pursued by future generations.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Lucas00

Agree with other folks so far, they aren't very rare cards to begin with.

I don't see any kind of price change incoming.

Agreed great finds but there is so many already out there a few more will not impact (except perhaps in short term for very short time) unless they sell them across several auctions over the span of months and in that case we will see no difference

[bbcard1]

One of the reasons T206s are so popular is that they are attainable. Having a couple of finds may actually expand the market.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Somehow prices will go UP.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Somehow prices will go UP.

Only on the cards you want Peter...