Health of Asset Class - Over/Under 1955 Topps Koufax PSA 9

[Rhotchkiss]

I am sitting in an airport bored and checking different auction house websites. Goldin has some “top 100” auction coming up and I looked at the preview. One card they have in that auction is a PSA 9, 1955 Topps Sandy Koufax rookie (staring bid $50k). This seems like a true investor card/canary in the coal mine for card values, and so I started to check VCP on prices to guess what it’s “worth”. Here is a link to the auction preview: https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2...NzfoiI7ok8A&e=

Below are pics from VCP showing the sales history of PSA 9 sales (first pic) and the more robust sales history of PSA 8s (pics 2&3). As you can see, this card in an 8 peaked in late 2021/early 2022 and has generally been on a down swing since then, with the lowest comps being the most recent. I believe this tracks most vintage cards. However, the highest PSA comp is the most recent (November 2022) and clearly, 9s sell much more rarely than 8s.

Question: Based on this info (and anything else), what do you think this card sells for when the auction closes? Will it be higher or lower than my over/under price, and why?

I am placing the over/under at $345k and I am taking the under.

The psa 9, 2021 sale was $369k. Looking at the psa 8 comps, most recent sales appear to be about 10% below 2021 sales from August. So I am thinking about 10% below the psa 9, 2021 comp makes sense, putting it just below the $345k strike.

But this card could finish anywhere- I wouldn’t be surprised if it closed at $250k or over $400k, but I do believe there is more downside than upside potential vs the last comp. Factors such as economy, Covid boom and general card popularity, registry set collectors, the auction house, psa cert numbers (the high comp is a newer cert # and the card in question am old one), among other factors, could impact the final result. What do you think?

Favor- there are several on here who bitch, moan and complain on any thread that talks about values or grading. We get it, this type of thread is not for you. And I respect that. But please respect those for whom a thread like this may be interesting and don’t post here unless it’s generally in furtherance of the topic. For example, replies that are not needed: “I don’t care bc I only collect raw”. “Whatever it’s worth, liquidate your 401k”. “I would rather have a new house than this card”. “I don’t care what my cards are worth so I don’t care what this card is worth”. “Great, another what’s it worth thread”.

[ClementeFanOh]

Hi Ryan- I’ll take the over, and just barely. It’s a brand spanking new PSA 9 and I think someone will go high to claim him. Just a hunch…and by the way, you probably warded off half the commenters by asking that people stay on topic An unusual percentage of folks seem to have problems with that, even when the topic is crystal clear. Trent King

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by ClementeFanOh

Hi Ryan- I’ll take the over, and just barely. It’s a brand spanking new PSA 9 and I think someone will go high to claim him. Just a hunch…and by the way, you probably warded off half the commenters by asking that people stay on topic An unusual percentage of folks seem to have problems with that, even when the topic is crystal clear. Trent King

Well done with taking it OT on the first reply.

As to to the main topic Ryan raised, while I think the market for a great deal of material has pulled back, I feel a card like this appeals to a different caliber of hobbyist and will see a record price. Safe travels.

[Casey2296]

Nice card.

I'll take the under on the 9, guessing 295K-325K range, although it only takes a couple of registry guys or a "recommendation" to a "client" that this is a solid investment to drive the price north.

Maybe it's my eyes or an optical illusion but doesn't the bottom edge look wavy?

Your last paragraph got a chuckle too.

[raulus]

Predictions on pieces like this are always a fool’s errand, although as fortune’s fool, perhaps I’ll proffer a few lame and mostly self-evident observations.

Not many of us have the deep pockets to swim in these deep waters. Even if we do have pockets so deep, we might prefer to avoid sinking it all into a single card, and instead prefer to spread our wealth around.

As a result, I suspect that the final price will largely be governed by 2-4 potential buyers. Although it’s possible that others might be in the mix, including someone for whom this might represent their only foray into the hobby, my inclination is to guess that these potential buyers are either major Koufax fanboyz/collectors or else serious collectors of this set. Just how crazy those buyers are willing to get will largely be a question of how they’re feeling in the last couple of days before and especially the day of the auction closing.

Do their animal spirits come alive? Do they throw caution to the wind and let it rip? How drunk do they get? And in the days/weeks before the auction, what else is swirling in their lives that emotionally pushes them one way or the other? How long have they been saving up their pennies for this specific card in this specific grade? Do they get emotionally attached to the idea that they have to win this one, no matter what? Do they start mentally preparing a spot on the wall where this one will go, such that they already view it as theirs, and decide to not back down even in the face of someone equally determined to win it? As you can tell, I’m projecting a bit now.

One of the other elements here is how often these babies come to market in this high grade. It looks like there’s been a handful over the last couple of years, which probably helps to satiate some of the pent up demand out there. For high grade pieces that haven’t come to market during the pandemic, often the pent up demand is pretty overpowering, with those pieces going absofreakinglutely nuts.

But getting back to those potential buyers, since so many of these questions are so uniquely personal, are dependent on future events, and for people that are probably largely unknown to most of us, it’s impossible to really even begin to attempt to predict with any degree of precision.

Having said all of that, my general sense is that when high graded, low pop pieces for inner circle hall of famers, particularly for their early years come to market, the market continues to surprise me. Even shock me to a great extent.

Accordingly, I tend to be inclined to guess high. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one approaches or even exceeds $400k (with the juice, natch). But like some of the earlier comments, my sense is that the range here is wide, anywhere from $250-500, depending on just how many players decide to get into it, and just how nuts they’re willing to go to make sure that they land this piece.

[Bkrum]

Interesting topic that I will take a swing at. When I checked out the card the first thing I noticed is that the card didn’t have the usual sharpness that I often note with the Koufax rookie. Sandy’s usual dark, tan complexion looked a little light or faded. Otherwise the card is gorgeous with immaculate centering and corners but it didn’t “speak to me”. So if the standard is in the range of all time highs I will take the under. Put me in the 325k camp
Just my two cents…..

[pawpawdiv9]

under -barely reaches 300, then new buyer re-sells in 6 months for a nice profit.
*forgot ya'll that didnt get the notice, the re-boom is coming back in 6 months.
LOL

[rand1com]

Easily over. A newly graded 9 will bring in the high rollers because it will be perceived as the nicest 9 on the planet. The economy does not affect buyers that can afford a card like this.

[theshowandme]

REA just announced they have one in their spring auction that starts on Thursday




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[trambo]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

REA just announced they have one in their spring auction that starts on Thursday




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seeing 2 of these coming to market at the same time is likely bad for both sellers. I was taking the under before and I'd likely bet a little more now. Good thing I don't really bet....haha!!

[Rhotchkiss]

Troy, I really like your logic on this one. Hope all is well!

Two PSA 9 does not bode well for either seller. Second “bet”- which does better, REA (first up) or Goldin? Both are old cert #s

[Snowman]

Goldin isn't doing the seller any favors with their washed out looking scans (their entire catalog has these BTW). The card itself looks slightly diamond cut and the borders look narrow for this card. I think it has almost certainly been trimmed. But I also think the potential buyers are unlikely to notice that. But they might notice that it has an old serial number (the market is getting wiser to the moving of the goal posts). With a nicer looking 9 hitting REA at the same time, I think this one goes under. Possibly way under if the buyers are informed. This is precisely the type of card I would never buy even if my funds were endless, despite the card itself being one of my all time favorite cards.

As a quick note, I think a few have referenced above something about when the 3xxx serial numbers were graded. There were no 3xxx serials handed out between the high 2xxx and 4xxx serials. PSA skipped over the 3xxx's and went straight to the 4xxx's. I believe all of the 3xxx are from the very early days at PSA.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Goldin isn't doing the seller any favors with their washed out looking scans (their entire catalog has these BTW). The card itself looks slightly diamond cut and the borders look narrow for this card. I think it has almost certainly been trimmed. But I also think the potential buyers are unlikely to notice that. But they might notice that it has an old serial number (the market is getting wiser to the moving of the goal posts). With a nicer looking 9 hitting REA at the same time, I think this one goes under. Possibly way under if the buyers are informed. This is precisely the type of card I would never buy even if my funds were endless, despite the card itself being one of my all time favorite cards.

As a quick note, I think a few have referenced above something about when the 3xxx serial numbers were graded. There were no 3xxx serials handed out between the high 2xxx and 4xxx serials. PSA skipped over the 3xxx's and went straight to the 4xxx's. I believe all of the 3xxx are from the very early days at PSA.

I think Goldin does that washed out scans to hide imperfections, especially on 55 Topps. Bad scan, you can't see the wear on the card.

"Buy the card, not the holder". I think I might be in the minority now.

[toledo_mudhen]

Guessin that it doesn't hit $250K.................

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Troy, I really like your logic on this one. Hope all is well!

Two PSA 9 does not bode well for either seller. Second “bet”- which does better, REA (first up) or Goldin? Both are old cert #s

On the second bet I’m going REA because it was first


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[Rhotchkiss]

For the past 6-7 years, I have kept a running spreadsheet tracking items that I am interested for sale in current auctions. For each card I am interested in, I track the current bid, the cost with BP, and the cost of the next bid with BP; I also have a side sheet that adds taxes and other expenses, so I can estimate the all-in cost to me. As part of this spreadsheet, I do a deep valuation of the cards I track and I often account for the overall SGC-PSA population (both separate and combined). I color-code each item -- blue is within 10% high or low of my estimate, green is 10%+ lower than my estimate, and red is 10%+ higher than my estimate. In general, I am pretty good at estimating the final price (hammer + BP) on items I am interested in.

I did this for the REA auction last night. Of the 21 cards I tracked, 7 were within 10% of my estimate, 4 were below my estimate, and 10 (almost 50%) ended above my estimate. To me, that signals one of two things: (i) I am not good at estimating, which may be true, or (ii) the results in REA last night were quite strong.

Of particular note, Wagners are on fire, with every Wagner I followed ending at or above (sometimes substantially above) my estimate. Look at the M116 blue Wagner SGC 3, which finished about $4k higher than the blue SGC 3 Cobb -- Wagner outpricing Cobb in the same card and grade is not something you normally see

[theshowandme]

The Clemente 9 in REA though




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[JackR]

Thanks, Ryan. I’d like to participate, but it’s too painful. In the mid 90’s, I had a chance to buy one for $1,800 (“2 x High Beckett”)… AND I PASSED!

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by JackR

Thanks, Ryan. I’d like to participate, but it’s too painful. In the mid 90’s, I had a chance to buy one for $1,800 (“2 x High Beckett”)… AND I PASSED!

Jack, Ugh. I bet that would have a gone a long way toward the day payment on a super nice condo outside Nashville

Octavio, I imagine that 99% of the people seeking to buy a card like this, view the card as an asset/investment. Perhaps it is a speculator or Fund of sorts, who simply looks at the card as a commodity. Or, it could be someone, like me, who loves cards and really enjoys owning them, but is really looking at cards as a separate form of investment/asset. For example, Ken Kendrick probably bought the Gretzky Wagner bc he thought it would be awesome to own, but you know he 100% bought it expecting to make money and thinking it was a great place to invest $5mm (or whatever it sold for). Bottom line, the buyer is buying it for investment.

[JimC]

Ryan, I thought the Collins Hornsby did very well. Strong price for a seldom seen card from a relatively obscure set.

The Wagner candy cards have to be the stars of this round of auctions so far though. Those Memory Lane prices looked very strong to me.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by JimC

Ryan, I thought the Collins Hornsby did very well. Strong price for a seldom seen card from a relatively obscure set.

The Wagner candy cards have to be the stars of this round of auctions so far though. Those Memory Lane prices looked very strong to me.

+1. I was surprised on the Collins Hornsby too. 54k is a good chunk of money..
.

[Rhotchkiss]

Very strong price. I do think the card is worth that- I think it’s been a very undervalued card for a while and is now getting its due. That said, most of the pricing in memory lane was super strong indicating strength (and a testament to memory lane).

[theshowandme]

Another one coming to REA next week




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[Yoda]

If the market does crash and the value of our cards plummets, the true collectors will still have their cards and with that comes the love of our favorite players, their times and even the game itself. Let's not forget the game.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Yoda

If the market does crash and the value of our cards plummets, the true collectors will still have their cards and with that comes the love of our favorite players, their times and even the game itself. Let's not forget the game.

[Rhotchkiss]

I went back to my initial post and the PSA 9 introduced in that still has not yet gone on sale- It was a preview and the auction starts July 27th!

But since I started the thread, a PSA 9 Koufax did sell in REA (April) for $384k, which was well over the $345k over/under I set and, as you can see from the updated VCP info posted below, is on par with sales in 2022.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I went back to my initial post and the PSA 9 introduced in that still has not yet gone on sale- It was a preview and the auction starts July 27th!

But since I started the thread, a PSA 9 Koufax did sell in REA (April) for $384k, which was well over the $345k over/under I set and, as you can see from the updated VCP info posted below, is on par with sales in 2022.

Ryan - ready to make an updated call? $450k?

[theshowandme]

[raulus]

Looks like the bidding is up to $170k so far ($204k with the juice), with 26 days left.

https://goldin.co/item/1955-topps-12...sa-mint-9ka38t

[Rhotchkiss]

BTW- reading my post above, I was sarcastic with the $470k. But the REA sale shows, at the least, that PSA 9 Koufax’s are doing just fine.

And based on the stuff I was watching, and the one card I won, in REA, prewar seems to be just fine as well. Heritage ends this weekend, then LOTG and memory lane (mile high hasn’t even opened). So many amazing offerings and it appears strong prices persist. As a buyer, it’s a little surprising and quite annoying!