Health of Asset Class - Over/Under 1955 Topps Koufax PSA 9

[theshowandme]

REA just announced they have one in their spring auction that starts on Thursday




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[trambo]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

REA just announced they have one in their spring auction that starts on Thursday




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seeing 2 of these coming to market at the same time is likely bad for both sellers. I was taking the under before and I'd likely bet a little more now. Good thing I don't really bet....haha!!

[Rhotchkiss]

Troy, I really like your logic on this one. Hope all is well!

Two PSA 9 does not bode well for either seller. Second “bet”- which does better, REA (first up) or Goldin? Both are old cert #s

[Snowman]

Goldin isn't doing the seller any favors with their washed out looking scans (their entire catalog has these BTW). The card itself looks slightly diamond cut and the borders look narrow for this card. I think it has almost certainly been trimmed. But I also think the potential buyers are unlikely to notice that. But they might notice that it has an old serial number (the market is getting wiser to the moving of the goal posts). With a nicer looking 9 hitting REA at the same time, I think this one goes under. Possibly way under if the buyers are informed. This is precisely the type of card I would never buy even if my funds were endless, despite the card itself being one of my all time favorite cards.

As a quick note, I think a few have referenced above something about when the 3xxx serial numbers were graded. There were no 3xxx serials handed out between the high 2xxx and 4xxx serials. PSA skipped over the 3xxx's and went straight to the 4xxx's. I believe all of the 3xxx are from the very early days at PSA.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Goldin isn't doing the seller any favors with their washed out looking scans (their entire catalog has these BTW). The card itself looks slightly diamond cut and the borders look narrow for this card. I think it has almost certainly been trimmed. But I also think the potential buyers are unlikely to notice that. But they might notice that it has an old serial number (the market is getting wiser to the moving of the goal posts). With a nicer looking 9 hitting REA at the same time, I think this one goes under. Possibly way under if the buyers are informed. This is precisely the type of card I would never buy even if my funds were endless, despite the card itself being one of my all time favorite cards.

As a quick note, I think a few have referenced above something about when the 3xxx serial numbers were graded. There were no 3xxx serials handed out between the high 2xxx and 4xxx serials. PSA skipped over the 3xxx's and went straight to the 4xxx's. I believe all of the 3xxx are from the very early days at PSA.

I think Goldin does that washed out scans to hide imperfections, especially on 55 Topps. Bad scan, you can't see the wear on the card.

"Buy the card, not the holder". I think I might be in the minority now.

[toledo_mudhen]

Guessin that it doesn't hit $250K.................

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Troy, I really like your logic on this one. Hope all is well!

Two PSA 9 does not bode well for either seller. Second “bet”- which does better, REA (first up) or Goldin? Both are old cert #s

On the second bet I’m going REA because it was first


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[Rhotchkiss]

For the past 6-7 years, I have kept a running spreadsheet tracking items that I am interested for sale in current auctions. For each card I am interested in, I track the current bid, the cost with BP, and the cost of the next bid with BP; I also have a side sheet that adds taxes and other expenses, so I can estimate the all-in cost to me. As part of this spreadsheet, I do a deep valuation of the cards I track and I often account for the overall SGC-PSA population (both separate and combined). I color-code each item -- blue is within 10% high or low of my estimate, green is 10%+ lower than my estimate, and red is 10%+ higher than my estimate. In general, I am pretty good at estimating the final price (hammer + BP) on items I am interested in.

I did this for the REA auction last night. Of the 21 cards I tracked, 7 were within 10% of my estimate, 4 were below my estimate, and 10 (almost 50%) ended above my estimate. To me, that signals one of two things: (i) I am not good at estimating, which may be true, or (ii) the results in REA last night were quite strong.

Of particular note, Wagners are on fire, with every Wagner I followed ending at or above (sometimes substantially above) my estimate. Look at the M116 blue Wagner SGC 3, which finished about $4k higher than the blue SGC 3 Cobb -- Wagner outpricing Cobb in the same card and grade is not something you normally see

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

For the past 6-7 years, I have kept a running spreadsheet tracking items that I am interested for sale in current auctions. For each card I am interested in, I track the current bid, the cost with BP, and the cost of the next bid with BP; I also have a side sheet that adds taxes and other expenses, so I can estimate the all-in cost to me. As part of this spreadsheet, I do a deep valuation of the cards I track and I often account for the overall SGC-PSA population (both separate and combined). I color-code each item -- blue is within 10% high or low of my estimate, green is 10%+ lower than my estimate, and red is 10%+ higher than my estimate. In general, I am pretty good at estimating the final price (hammer + BP) on items I am interested in.

I did this for the REA auction last night. Of the 21 cards I tracked, 7 were within 10% of my estimate, 4 were below my estimate, and 10 (almost 50%) ended above my estimate. To me, that signals one of two things: (i) I am not good at estimating, which may be true, or (ii) the results in REA last night were quite strong.

Of particular note, Wagners are on fire, with every Wagner I followed ending at or above (sometimes substantially above) my estimate. Look at the M116 blue Wagner SGC 3, which finished about $4k higher than the blue SGC 3 Cobb -- Wagner outpricing Cobb in the same card and grade is not something you normally see

I'm going to go with that the results in REA were really strong last night, and that your estimates were accurate. I really wanted that Wagner PC976 Sepia postcard, but the price was just too high.

[parkplace33]

I have given up predicting REA results, especially with this one:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=139372

[trambo]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

For the past 6-7 years, I have kept a running spreadsheet tracking items that I am interested for sale in current auctions. For each card I am interested in, I track the current bid, the cost with BP, and the cost of the next bid with BP; I also have a side sheet that adds taxes and other expenses, so I can estimate the all-in cost to me. As part of this spreadsheet, I do a deep valuation of the cards I track and I often account for the overall SGC-PSA population (both separate and combined). I color-code each item -- blue is within 10% high or low of my estimate, green is 10%+ lower than my estimate, and red is 10%+ higher than my estimate. In general, I am pretty good at estimating the final price (hammer + BP) on items I am interested in.

I did this for the REA auction last night. Of the 21 cards I tracked, 7 were within 10% of my estimate, 4 were below my estimate, and 10 (almost 50%) ended above my estimate. To me, that signals one of two things: (i) I am not good at estimating, which may be true, or (ii) the results in REA last night were quite strong.

Of particular note, Wagners are on fire, with every Wagner I followed ending at or above (sometimes substantially above) my estimate. Look at the M116 blue Wagner SGC 3, which finished about $4k higher than the blue SGC 3 Cobb -- Wagner outpricing Cobb in the same card and grade is not something you normally see

Your 10% advice came in handy last night at REA. There were 2-t205 upgrades for my set, one of which was something I never thought I'd upgrade. I thought I was out and then remembered our discussion in Chantilly a year or so ago when you said that if it was within 10%, it was a good idea to just get it since that kind of thing likely never comes up for auction. So I placed one more bid which fell within 10% of my number and won it. You can likely guess the card as I don't have many t205s I can even find to upgrade!

On your original comment, I missed on the under but as you've said, the Goldin Koufax was the question. It will be interesting to see how they compare. I have no idea which is stronger or if they're the same but I take the under there. We'll see!!

[Exhibitman]

Ryan, I do the same thing, but not as detailed as yours. just to give me an idea on trends. Some are up, some are down, my overall list is off about 10% from its peak but at 279% of what it was pre-pandemic. The twist with mine is that I track lower grades.

FWIW, the lots I tracked in REA finished quite strong. $4560 for a 1947 Bond Bread Robinson in a 1 is a nice price. A 2 sold for less last December. Lower grade 1952 T Mantle cards did well too. A PSA 2 went for $45,600 and an SGC 2 with lousy centering was $33,600.