Buying raw cards online

[ASF123]

Hi, and I apologize for another "advice for the new guy" question...

I've now received a decent number (nowhere near all, thanks USPS) of the cards from my first round of eBay purchases after coming back to the hobby. These include a bunch of raw '50s/'60s HOFers. It seems like one big takeaway is that one should probably never pay more than about a PSA 4 price (per VCP) for a raw card on eBay, regardless of how nice it looks in the photo/scan (and, of course, how it is described).

Reasons:

(1) If it was really a high-grade card, chances are good that someone would have had it graded at some point;

(2) Let's face it, PSA is arbitrary and subjective. There's nothing "real" about whether a card is minty enough for an 8, minty enough for a 7, or not quite minty enough. It's just one person's opinion on a given day.

(3) Given (2), it's impossible to predict whether a given raw card would be, say, a 5, 6 or 7. And it's even more impossible to do so based on a few photos online.

(4) Given (2) and (3) plus all the bad incentives inherent in PSA's business model, it's unlikely that a card submitted by a random guy like me would get a very high grade, even if it was probably worthy.

(5) TPGs seem to exist basically to sh*t on really nice-looking cards. I now have a couple of PSA 4s that would have easily been sold as NM 30 years ago, back when everyone was happier about the condition of their cards .

So, is the "nicest card I can find for around PSA 4 price" policy on the right track? It's going to shut me out on a lot of cards, I'm afraid, as people seem to have no problem bidding up the really good looking-ones (esp. on Greg Morris). But it seems like the prudent way to go - the few times thus far I've won an auction at like a PSA 6 price, I've ended up irritated by a flaw that was more noticeable in person.

I'm not really trying to invest per se, I just don't want to spend a bunch of money on cards that won't hold their value at all. Of course, some appreciation would be nice.

Thanks in advance for any discussion...

[oldeboo]

My general rule is to attempt to buy at 2 grades less that what I think it would grade as a rough guide when talking about post-war cards. Sometimes it works and sometimes it's hard to be competitive that way. I like to stick to what I think and if I lose a card that is readily available, oh well. When you're looking at cards from a place like Greg Morris you can often find the same card that sold previously. Based on previously sold you can judge if the one currently available is a little nicer or worse since they have consistent scans, then bid accordingly. You'll win some, you'll lose some. There are people out there willing to bid extremely strong. Also, don't avoid buy it now or best offers because many times those are the best deals when you can find them. People like to win auctions just to win them sometimes.

[ASF123]

Also, don't avoid buy it now or best offers because many times those are the best deals when you can find them.

Interesting. In my experience a BIN search is what you would do if for some reason you wanted a list of people who are delusional about their card values.

[steve B]

I'm not sure about now, but I've gotten some nice grades from SGC on prewar stuff I bought raw.

Once you start looking at the cards more critically the grades make some sense.

For what it's worth, I'm also not one to get hung up on grade. I've graded very few cards, and bought fewer already graded. I have pretty much the entire range of conditions from "ought to be in the recycling" to "that's almost perfect"

[ASF123]

I'd love to not get hung up on condition too, but it's hard not to coming back into the hobby these days. "Yeah, remember those great vintage cards you had as a kid that you thought were in perfectly nice shape? Ha ha, they're all terrible and worthless!" Leaves a bit of a mark, so to speak.

[oldeboo]

Originally Posted by ASF123

Interesting. In my experience a BIN search is what you would do if for some reason you wanted a list of people who are delusional about their card values.

Part of the trick with BIN or BO is to sort by newly listed. If it's been on there a long time your odds of a deal are slim. Also, if you're looking for variations like many hunt for, the older listings have mostly been cherry picked. Sellers often will start an auction at .99 or whatever with a BO attached, so that's another opportunity. Do your research and shoot them a fair price to see what happens, not an extremely low offer, just one a little(or a decent bit) under the lower range of past sold items. You'd be surprised the people selling dad's old cards that will put a 20 dollar bill in their pocket when it's offered over the thought of waiting months, or even 7 days, to get 30. I've bought many readily available cards at the lowest past sold prices on ebay that way, you're doing pretty good when you can beat the average. With how hot the hobby has been lately many auctions are on the other end of the spectrum, raising the average. A lot of the best BIN deals sell within a few minutes, so most people miss them. The BIN approach involves a little bit of random luck and maybe broader searches.

No more of my secrets

[Exhibitman]

You have to discover which dealers are honest and fair graders. Simple as that. There are some dealers whose word I trust, like Scottsdate Baseball Cards [scottsdalecards.com] or Burbank Sports Cards [burbankcards.com] to grade accurately, present representative scans, and make good any errors that do take place. 95% of what I buy now is raw and my 'go-back' rate is minuscule when I stick to reputable sellers.

[ASF123]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

You have to discover which dealers are honest and fair graders. Simple as that. There are some dealers whose word I trust, like Scottsdate Baseball Cards [scottsdalecards.com] or Burbank Sports Cards [burbankcards.com] to grade accurately, present representative scans, and make good any errors that do take place. 95% of what I buy now is raw and my 'go-back' rate is minuscule when I stick to reputable sellers.

I guess my thing is that even when I see a representative scan, I couldn't consistently/reliably distinguish with any certainty between a PSA 6-8, for example. And neither could someone at PSA, if they were being honest.

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

You have to discover which dealers are honest and fair graders. Simple as that. There are some dealers whose word I trust, like Scottsdate Baseball Cards [scottsdalecards.com] or Burbank Sports Cards [burbankcards.com] to grade accurately, present representative scans, and make good any errors that do take place. 95% of what I buy now is raw and my 'go-back' rate is minuscule when I stick to reputable sellers.

This is great advice to a someone new to today's hobby, aka someone returning after being away for years.

If the Op is as concerned with condition as he seems to be and wants to avoid problems my two recommendations are as follows,

1) avoid buying on-line if you are a stickler on condition, instead wait for Covid to end and buy in person, you wont end up as disappointed

2) if you do choose to buy online take Adam's advice and buy from reputable dealers, not from some nut who only uses images to "describe" their cards (as discussed in the OP's thread on the main page).

A primary goal of reputable dealers is to earn repeat business by offering accurately graded cards. IMO, the OP put himself in a bad spot by buying from a seller who only uses an image to describe the card....seek out the reputable dealers who accurately grade their cards if you do choose to continue to build your collection on line and avoid the sellers such as the one mentioned in the thread on the main board.