Buying raw cards online
 

Hi, and I apologize for another "advice for the new guy" question...

I've now received a decent number (nowhere near all, thanks USPS) of the cards from my first round of eBay purchases after coming back to the hobby. These include a bunch of raw '50s/'60s HOFers. It seems like one big takeaway is that one should probably never pay more than about a PSA 4 price (per VCP) for a raw card on eBay, regardless of how nice it looks in the photo/scan (and, of course, how it is described).

Reasons:

(1) If it was really a high-grade card, chances are good that someone would have had it graded at some point;

(2) Let's face it, PSA is arbitrary and subjective. There's nothing "real" about whether a card is minty enough for an 8, minty enough for a 7, or not quite minty enough. It's just one person's opinion on a given day.

(3) Given (2), it's impossible to predict whether a given raw card would be, say, a 5, 6 or 7. And it's even more impossible to do so based on a few photos online.

(4) Given (2) and (3) plus all the bad incentives inherent in PSA's business model, it's unlikely that a card submitted by a random guy like me would get a very high grade, even if it was probably worthy.

(5) TPGs seem to exist basically to sh*t on really nice-looking cards. I now have a couple of PSA 4s that would have easily been sold as NM 30 years ago, back when everyone was happier about the condition of their cards :).

So, is the "nicest card I can find for around PSA 4 price" policy on the right track? It's going to shut me out on a lot of cards, I'm afraid, as people seem to have no problem bidding up the really good looking-ones (esp. on Greg Morris). But it seems like the prudent way to go - the few times thus far I've won an auction at like a PSA 6 price, I've ended up irritated by a flaw that was more noticeable in person.

I'm not really trying to invest per se, I just don't want to spend a bunch of money on cards that won't hold their value at all. Of course, some appreciation would be nice.

Thanks in advance for any discussion...

My general rule is to attempt to buy at 2 grades less that what I think it would grade as a rough guide when talking about post-war cards. Sometimes it works and sometimes it's hard to be competitive that way. I like to stick to what I think and if I lose a card that is readily available, oh well. When you're looking at cards from a place like Greg Morris you can often find the same card that sold previously. Based on previously sold you can judge if the one currently available is a little nicer or worse since they have consistent scans, then bid accordingly. You'll win some, you'll lose some. There are people out there willing to bid extremely strong. Also, don't avoid buy it now or best offers because many times those are the best deals when you can find them. People like to win auctions just to win them sometimes.

Interesting. In my experience a BIN search is what you would do if for some reason you wanted a list of people who are delusional about their card values.

I'm not sure about now, but I've gotten some nice grades from SGC on prewar stuff I bought raw.

Once you start looking at the cards more critically the grades make some sense.

For what it's worth, I'm also not one to get hung up on grade. I've graded very few cards, and bought fewer already graded. I have pretty much the entire range of conditions from "ought to be in the recycling" to "that's almost perfect"

I'd love to not get hung up on condition too, but it's hard not to coming back into the hobby these days. "Yeah, remember those great vintage cards you had as a kid that you thought were in perfectly nice shape? Ha ha, they're all terrible and worthless!" Leaves a bit of a mark, so to speak. :)

Part of the trick with BIN or BO is to sort by newly listed. If it's been on there a long time your odds of a deal are slim. Also, if you're looking for variations like many hunt for, the older listings have mostly been cherry picked. Sellers often will start an auction at .99 or whatever with a BO attached, so that's another opportunity. Do your research and shoot them a fair price to see what happens, not an extremely low offer, just one a little(or a decent bit) under the lower range of past sold items. You'd be surprised the people selling dad's old cards that will put a 20 dollar bill in their pocket when it's offered over the thought of waiting months, or even 7 days, to get 30. I've bought many readily available cards at the lowest past sold prices on ebay that way, you're doing pretty good when you can beat the average. With how hot the hobby has been lately many auctions are on the other end of the spectrum, raising the average. A lot of the best BIN deals sell within a few minutes, so most people miss them. The BIN approach involves a little bit of random luck and maybe broader searches.

No more of my secrets ;)

You have to discover which dealers are honest and fair graders. Simple as that. There are some dealers whose word I trust, like Scottsdate Baseball Cards [scottsdalecards.com] or Burbank Sports Cards [burbankcards.com] to grade accurately, present representative scans, and make good any errors that do take place. 95% of what I buy now is raw and my 'go-back' rate is minuscule when I stick to reputable sellers.

I guess my thing is that even when I see a representative scan, I couldn't consistently/reliably distinguish with any certainty between a PSA 6-8, for example. And neither could someone at PSA, if they were being honest.

Well sure, but that goes with the much cheaper costs with raw cards. You just have to decide what factors are most important to you with a given issue. Like with 1952 Topps I favor centering over technical condition. I know I will never assemble a group in nice shape, so clean, centered cards with rounded corners or a crease are fine with me.

I wish they were much cheaper. I'm seeing the really nice-looking raw cards, the vast majority of which are from Greg Morris or other big dealers, getting bid up to around PSA 6-7 prices regularly. Where are you finding these much cheaper costs? ;)

I'm not. I don't collect higher end cards anymore. I am replacing mine with lower grade cards (mostly raw) and pocketing the difference. I also do not participate in auctions for those cards except on a lowball bidding basis. I look for BINs. Postwar mainstream cards are not rare, so there is no point in chasing after a specific card. I wait until I see something I like in my price range. No FOMO for me.

As for being able to spot a PSA 6-7-8, if you want a PSA 8, then buy one at the commensurate PSA grade price.

I might - if it were possible to reliably tell what would be a PSA 8 from an online listing. But I don't think it is, and we're right back where we started :rolleyes:. So, like you, I've decided to basically only get those types of cards on the occasions that I can snag them for around PSA 4 prices. Sounds like we're on the same page.

This is great advice to a someone new to today's hobby, aka someone returning after being away for years.

If the Op is as concerned with condition as he seems to be and wants to avoid problems my two recommendations are as follows,

1) avoid buying on-line if you are a stickler on condition, instead wait for Covid to end and buy in person, you wont end up as disappointed

2) if you do choose to buy online take Adam's advice and buy from reputable dealers, not from some nut who only uses images to "describe" their cards (as discussed in the OP's thread on the main page).

A primary goal of reputable dealers is to earn repeat business by offering accurately graded cards. IMO, the OP put himself in a bad spot by buying from a seller who only uses an image to describe the card....seek out the reputable dealers who accurately grade their cards if you do choose to continue to build your collection on line and avoid the sellers such as the one mentioned in the thread on the main board.

Thanks for all the advice, everyone.

I finally started buying cards again after 27 years, and now you want me to wait until after Covid?? Come on! :D

Seriously, though, I wouldn't describe myself as a stickler on condition - I just don't want to spend a lot of $ overpaying for my rookie mistakes. Believe me, I would love it if we could go back to the '80s when people were just happy enjoying nice-looking cards rather than trying to parse between 17 different types of "near mint/mint" and sending cards away to be inspected and punished for their every flaw. But that's not reality anymore, so I'm trying to learn to navigate.

I only collect raw cards and have gotten some great deals online. I usually check ending auctions late in the night which helps. I am a night owl so that's one advantage. I also ask for additional closeup pictures on higher end cards which most sellers are happy to provide. I like to get the best condition I can but am not OCD about it. Most of my collection would be a 6 or better if they were graded and I'm happy with that. My best cards and deals have always been in person and usually word of mouth. Looking at some this week from a friend of a friend who no longer wants them.

You should be able to tell the difference between a 5 up to a 7 with raw cards, and what they will get if graded most of the time - or what certain raw cards like that online would grade. If graded properly, there is a big difference between a 5 and a 7, and usually a 7 and most 8's. Granted you have to take this with a grain of salt; it's why the phrase "buy the card and not the grade" exists. But generally, if you've gotten a card that is not massively undergraded or was subject to some of the alteration scandal hocus pocus, then I think it's fair to say you should easily see the difference in a 7 vs. a 5 or so, even when buying online.

If your aim is to shop for raw cards and never pay more than a PSA 4 price, that will likely work in many cases - although as was alluded certain sellers who are very well known to grade raw cards accurately (i.e. Greg Morris...) and those cards will be bid up to very competitive prices, especially if you are talking about vintage rookies and HOF'ers. I have seen even lesser known sellers get very competitive prices on raw vintage cards - it's amazing what really good lighting and pictures / detailed scans can do for people who know how to use that to their advantage.