2021 HOF Ballot

[triwak]

Since we're about to finally exit this awful year, I thought this would be a good time to start some good-natured discussions, looking forward to better times. I would prefer folks limit their opinions to players who are actually ON THE BALLOT. But opine anything you want, I guess.

(Copied from the HOF website):

Any candidate who receives votes on 75 percent of all ballots cast will earn election to the Hall of Fame.

Fourteen former players are returning to the 2021 BBWAA ballot after receiving at least five percent of the overall vote in 2020:

Curt Schilling 70.0% 9th year
Roger Clemens 61.0% 9th year
Barry Bonds 60.7% 9th year
Omar Vizquel 52.6% 4th year
Scott Rolen 35.3% 4th year
Billy Wagner 31.7% 6th year
Gary Sheffield 30.5% 7th year
Todd Helton 29.2% 3rd year
Manny Ramírez 28.2% 5th year
Jeff Kent 27.5% 8th year
Andruw Jones 19.4% 4th year
Sammy Sosa 13.9% 9th year
Andy Pettitte 11.3% 3rd year
Bobby Abreu 5.5% 2nd year

Debuting on the BBWAA ballot in 2021 are:

Mark Buehrle
A.J. Burnett
Michael Cuddyer
Dan Haren
LaTroy Hawkins
Tim Hudson
Torii Hunter
Aramis Ramírez
Nick Swisher
Shane Victorino
Barry Zito

Let the games begin!!

[Wanaselja]

My guess is Schilling is the only one who gets to 75%. I think Rolen and Helton will see nice gains. Bonds and Clemens I think fall short again.

[OldOriole]

Originally Posted by Wanaselja

My guess is Schilling is the only one who gets to 75%. I think Rolen and Helton will see nice gains. Bonds and Clemens I think fall short again.

This.

As for 2022, it'll be the largest collection of PED users ever assembled. Bonds and Clemens will be holdovers in their last year of eligibility. Sheffield, Sosa, and Manny will still be on the ballot. A-Rod, Big Papi will be joining for the first time. Ugh. 2023 doesn't look much better with the biggest name being Carlos Beltran and his admitted in-game cheating.

I'd be fine if, after Schilling, there were no inductions until Beltre and Mauer come along in 2024.

[triwak]

Honestly, I think Schilling is probably the only inductee this year. (Assuming Bonds and Clemens are still shut out).

Posted at the same moment, Adam!!

[ronniehatesjazz]

Like others have said, only Schilling. Small chance of Vizquel gets in too. Bonds and Clemens get in on their 10th appearance in 2022, which will also see Manny and Sheffield gain a lot of momentum and probably make it in 2023.


My guess is for the players listed:

2021: Curt Schilling
2022: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Omar Vizquel
2023: Manny Ramirez
2024: Gary Sheffield

[T206BrownHindu]

I think Schilling is the only one this year. Didn’t Vizquel just get into some legal trouble? I don’t think any of the first timers gets over 5 percent (maybe Hudson).

[pclpads]

None on your list really excite me. What has kept Schilling out in the past - his mouth and far right political attitude - may trip him up again.

[Throttlesteer]

Only case for Bonds and Clemens is, they would have gotten in regardless of their cheating. The question becomes how the voters decide to make a statement. They may have to wait another year. But, like many of the other cheaters of the time, they permanently pooped in the MLB record book punch bowl. There's no going back and the records will forever be a mess.

[nat]

Essential for any hall of fame discussion season: http://www.bbhoftracker.com/

Tracks all of the publicly-released ballots up until the election announcement. As of this morning, no one is on track to be elected. Votes-per-ballot are usually lower in the not-announced group than amongst those who announce their ballots, but a few players (eg Omar Vizquel) might get a bump.

[hammertime]

Originally Posted by Throttlesteer

Only case for Bonds and Clemens is, they would have gotten in regardless of their cheating. The question becomes how the voters decide to make a statement. They may have to wait another year. But, like many of the other cheaters of the time, they permanently pooped in the MLB record book punch bowl. There's no going back and the records will forever be a mess.

Also there are a ton of players currently in the HoF who cheated during their playing days...spitballs, sign stealing, etc.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Throttlesteer

Only case for Bonds and Clemens is, they would have gotten in regardless of their cheating. The question becomes how the voters decide to make a statement. They may have to wait another year. But, like many of the other cheaters of the time, they permanently pooped in the MLB record book punch bowl. There's no going back and the records will forever be a mess.

Probably right, those knuckleheads could have gotten in without the PEDs. Sadly, most of the PED users kept denying it and basically lost a lot of people's respect. Look at Rafael Palmeiro, swore during testimony he wasn't a user. Not long after that, he was busted.

I give Mark McGwire credit, at least he fessed up to it.

[GeoPoto]

Originally Posted by Throttlesteer

Only case for Bonds and Clemens is, they would have gotten in regardless of their cheating. The question becomes how the voters decide to make a statement. They may have to wait another year. But, like many of the other cheaters of the time, they permanently pooped in the MLB record book punch bowl. There's no going back and the records will forever be a mess.

I am agnostic regarding steroid abuse prior to MLB explicitly forbidding it. You want to disqualify (some of) the (almost certain) users, it wont bother me; you want to vote as though nobody used steroids (until the MLB ban), it won't bother me.

But, everybody should acknowledge the following regarding Bonds. His father was the first to have 300 HRs and 300 SBs. In 1998, Barry became the first to have 400 HRs and 400 SBs. Nobody cared. The focus was strictly on McGwire, Sosa, and their season HR race. During 1998, a STL reporter observed a package of steroids in McGwire's locker and wrote about it. Outrage ensued. Not about the evidence of steroid use, but about the breach of the sanctity of the clubhouse and the clubhouse reporters' duty of confidentiality. Tony La Russa, the STL manager, complained loudly and suggested the offending reporter should be banned from the clubhouse. Nobody criticized McGwire.

I don't think Bonds' (apparent) decision to "get in the HR race" despite it requiring steroid use to compete with McGwire and Sosa was outrageous. I think the "system" appeared unconcerned about how you were able to hit 70 HRs in a season. And if you could, you were celebrated like a hero.

So while I agree that believing that Bonds at 400/400 had already had a HoF career is a legitimate basis for voting yes, I don't think it is the only perspective that could justify a yes vote. Bonds was never banned from baseball (like Rose is). MLB (owners, players union, etc.) were complicit in Bonds reaching the point where experimenting with Steroids didn't seem to be breaking a cardinal rule. It seemed to be the only way to be viewed as the most valuable player in MLB. The most valuable player in MLB is what most players aspire to be.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by pclpads

None on your list really excite me. What has kept Schilling out in the past - his mouth and far right political attitude - may trip him up again.

Sad that politics has to come into play for a HOF vote.

[Jason19th]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Sad that politics has to come into play for a HOF vote.

I actually don’t think that it’s really his politics that keep Shilling out. When you look at his record in context more guys with his type of record are out then in. Consider Luis Tiant, Lew Burdette , Ron Guidry, Mickie Lolich, Allie Reynolds, Billy Pierce, Mike Cueller, Vida Blue, Kevin Brown, and Bob Welch. Shilling has some big splash moments but that’s not the standard.

[Huysmans]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Sad that politics has to come into play for a HOF vote.

Pathetic is probably a better word... if that is in fact the case.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by triwak

Since we're about to finally exit this awful year, I thought this would be a good time to start some good-natured discussions, looking forward to better times. I would prefer folks limit their opinions to players who are actually ON THE BALLOT. But opine anything you want, I guess.

(Copied from the HOF website):

Any candidate who receives votes on 75 percent of all ballots cast will earn election to the Hall of Fame.

Fourteen former players are returning to the 2021 BBWAA ballot after receiving at least five percent of the overall vote in 2020:

Curt Schilling 70.0% 9th year
Roger Clemens 61.0% 9th year
Barry Bonds 60.7% 9th year
Omar Vizquel 52.6% 4th year
____________________________

Scott Rolen 35.3% 4th year
Billy Wagner 31.7% 6th year
Gary Sheffield 30.5% 7th year
Todd Helton 29.2% 3rd year
Manny Ramírez 28.2% 5th year
Jeff Kent 27.5% 8th year
Andruw Jones 19.4% 4th year
Sammy Sosa 13.9% 9th year
Andy Pettitte 11.3% 3rd year
Bobby Abreu 5.5% 2nd year

Debuting on the BBWAA ballot in 2021 are:

Mark Buehrle
A.J. Burnett
Michael Cuddyer
Dan Haren
LaTroy Hawkins
Tim Hudson
Torii Hunter
Aramis Ramírez
Nick Swisher
Shane Victorino
Barry Zito

Let the games begin!!

I would say that NONE of the players debuting this year ever get in.

I would also surmise that you can draw a red line under Vizquel, to separate those who have have a legitimate shot, vs. those who don't. The only exceptions might be Sheffield, Manny and Sosa... but that's only if we see more leniency towards "steroid guys" eventually getting in.

I think a lot will depend upon how they deal with Big Papi. He will clearly be a sentimental favorite when his time comes. And if Papi is elected, then I think the door opens for Bonds and Clemens (and perhaps guys like Sheffield, Manny, Sosa and Palmeiro).

I personally hope it does not go down this way, but would not bet against it.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by perezfan

I would say that NONE of the players debuting this year ever get in.



I would also surmise that you can draw a red line under Vizquel, to separate those who have have a legitimate shot, vs. those who don't. The only exceptions might be Sheffield, Manny and Sosa... but that's only if we see more leniency towards "steroid guys" eventually getting in.



I think a lot will depend upon how they deal with Big Papi. He will clearly be a sentimental favorite when his time comes. And if Papi is elected, then I think the door opens for Bonds and Clemens (and perhaps guys like Sheffield, Manny, Sosa and Palmeiro).



I personally hope it does not go down this way, but would not bet against it.

I would draw the red line under Scott Rolen. I believe he will get in some day, by the writers or thru a playing days committee.

I also agree with you about David Ortiz.

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[mattsey9]

My ballot would be the below 10 names. I make no apologies for being a Big Hall advocate...

Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Scott Rolen
Gary Sheffield
Todd Helton
Manny Ramírez
Andruw Jones
Sammy Sosa

Mark Buehrle


Write-in: Kenny Lofton

[iwantitiwinit]

Nick Swisher is a lock!!!

[G1911]

Originally Posted by mattsey9

My ballot would be the below 10 names. I make no apologies for being a Big Hall advocate...

Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Scott Rolen
Gary Sheffield
Todd Helton
Manny Ramírez
Andruw Jones
Sammy Sosa

Mark Buehrle


Write-in: Kenny Lofton

Buehrle over Schilling?

[terjung]

Schilling, yes
Dahlen, yes

all others no.

I loved watching Vizquel play and thought he was a magician at times, but I have never viewed him as a HOFer.

[mattsey9]

Originally Posted by G1911

Buehrle over Schilling?

Yes.

[Casey2296]

My Ballot is two.

1. Bill "Bad Bill" Dahlen
2. William "Dummy" Hoy

[ronniehatesjazz]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

My Ballot is two.

1. Bill "Bad Bill" Dahlen
2. William "Dummy" Hoy

Yes on both of them! Particularly Hoy... a 5'6 (or 5'4?) deaf man who amassed over 2,000 career hits despite not playing a game until he was 26 is a story more people need to be aware of.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by mattsey9

Yes.

Hard to see that in the math.

[Bcwcardz]

Originally Posted by G1911

Hard to see that in the math.

Cause it’s not there, Buehrle never once won 20 games nor had an era below 3. If someone is picking him over Schilling then it’s personal, not numbers based.


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[GeoPoto]

I agree that steroid users woke everybody up to the advantages of strength training, which has continued (presumably) without steroids. It's off topic, but everybody laments the reduced action caused by swinging for the fences, talks about limiting shifts, etc. Why don't they move back the fences? I realize it is not feasible everywhere, but do it where possible, and create requirements that see to it that new parks comply when built. Golf did it. I think the Mets actually moved the fences in recently. When most players can no longer hit home runs despite strength training, they will go back to hitting line drives.

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[Misunderestimated]

I think Schilling might be one and only who gets in... His problem isn't really just his politics per se... Since his retirement he has picked fights with the baseball media (see Pedro Gomez) and those are in fact the voters . Alot of voters might not want to hear him speak his mind from the Cooperstown podium about baseball and politics especially when he would be the only inductee.
On the other hand, the increasing number of younger analytics people voting may provide enough votes to offset the people who really don't like him and would invoke the "character clause" against him. Not getting along with media (or the other players) has kept out many players over the years. Look at Santo or Dick Allen. Santo was more (over) qualified than Schilling... Dick Allen also comes to mind.

I think that if you let Manny or Papi in (they are 100% PED guilty) you have to let in the guys we "know" are PED users who also measure up. We can't just let them in because they are "lovable" and keep out less liked guys like Bonds, Clemens, Sosa (who was lovable until he wasn't) etc.

My ballot would be (in order of priority) Bonds Clemens Manny, Sosa, Schilling, Sheffield, Jones and Kent.

[conor912]

There is zero way Papi doesn’t get in. Zero.

[mattsey9]

Originally Posted by conor912

There is zero way Papi doesn’t get in. Zero.

Bonds is the greatest hitter of the last 60 years, and the BALCO fiasco is keeping him out. Why would the same group of voters induct Ortiz?

That said, I don't completely disagree with you. Ortiz is far more popular with people than Bonds, and that does matter. I don't see it happening on the first ballot though.

[davidb]

Perhaps others have mentioned this idea but I have always advocated for a separate wing/room in Cooperstown for a "PED ERA ". Great players put up astounding numbers and should be recognized in some way by MLB.

[Mike D.]

Didn’t Manny get suspended TWICE for failed tests. I don’t think anyone is grouping him into an “innocent” category.

And two positive tests post testing is SO much different than the Ortiz situation that it’s comical to compare them.

[Mike D.]

When Ortiz’s name was leaked as someone who tested positive for something in the pre-test-and-punish days, he was 27, a part-time player, and had 89 career HR to go with a 271/.353/.491 career line.

Post testing (and you know he got tested plenty), he played 12 seasons, hit 452 HR, and hit 290/.387/.569.

Especially since we have no idea what he allegedly tested positive for, and baseball has literally come out and said those results are of little value, I don’t understand why people put him in the same category as people who tested positive once testing was implemented.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by conor912

There is zero way Papi doesn’t get in. Zero.

But if Ortiz gets in Bonds and Clemens should get in. You can't say "well these cheaters are okay, but these other cheaters aren't" We can't have it both ways.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by Seven

But if Ortiz gets in Bonds and Clemens should get in. You can't say "well these cheaters are okay, but these other cheaters aren't" We can't have it both ways.

There’s the “should be” and then there’s the “is”. I realize Papi’s name has swirled in PED rumors for years, but this is a prime example of how likability plays such a huge role. Clemens and Bonds are ornery assholes and always have been. Ortiz is a God in a lot of baseball circles, including for heroics off the field and in the community. I’m not saying he gets first ballot, but he gets in, no doubt. Also, if he wasn’t a lock before Edgar got in, he certainly is now that the DH has been legitimized by the Hall.

I can’t speak to Papi’s PED involvement, but don’t be shocked if we do “get it both ways” and he gets in while Bonds and Clemens don’t. It wouldn’t be the first time a media darling has coasted in while other equally deserving players have had to fight tooth and nail for their plaque. It’s a (wildly) imperfect system.

[todeen]

I personally don't like the argument that player XYZ wasn't the best on the team, or best at pitching position. Why can't two hall of fame players reside on the same team? If two reside on the same team, one will always be considered better than the other. There are different tiers of players. Let's consider truly great teams like the 90s Atlanta Braves who have multiple pitchers in the HOF. It is absurd to think that only one of Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux should be enshrined while the others are left out.

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[packs]

Originally Posted by todeen

I personally don't like the argument that player XYZ wasn't the best on the team, or best at pitching position. Why can't two hall of fame players reside on the same team? If two reside on the same team, one will always be considered better than the other. There are different tiers of players. Let's consider truly great teams like the 90s Atlanta Braves who have multiple pitchers in the HOF. It is absurd to think that only one of Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux should be enshrined while the others are left out.

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Not really. Glavine won 2 Cy Young Awards. Smoltz won a Cy Young too. So of the three, all of them won Cy Youngs.

Cy Young is not the definition of a HOF career, but if you're at all borderline like Schilling is, you need one.

Schilling's entire case boils down to 2 three year periods and I don't think he was good enough in either one to be considered a HOF pitcher. He was just very good.

[Mike D.]

Does Lou Gehrig get dinged for playing with Babe Ruth?

I don’t buy the argument that things a player can’t control should hurt them.

And it’s hard to argue Schilling wasn’t the Red Sox best pitcher in 2004...Johan Santana was just a little better...not much Schilling could do about that.

[packs]

A player like Schilling has nothing in common with Lou Gehrig, an obvious all time great who, by the way, still managed to win 2 MVP awards.

And Johan wasn't just a little better. Johan received every first place vote in 2004.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by packs

And Johan wasn't just a little better. Johan received every first place vote in 2004.

Looking at vote totals isn’t really the way to go...look at the stats. Yes, Santana was clearly better and a worthy CY winner...but Schilling was closer to Santana (~1 WAR) by more than double than the #3 SP. Hell, three relievers rounded out the top 5 in the CY voting that year.

I’m not saying Schilling is Gehrig level, but he’s well above the HOF average for his position, and clearly deserving.

[Mike D.]

Schilling did have a non-traditional path to a hall of fame career. He took a while to get established, and then mixed some mediocre or injury-marred seasons between stretches of greatness.

But I consider Tim Hudson a borderline hall of famer. Schilling has 20+ more career WAR than that.

That career strikeout to walk ratio, for a high-k pitcher, is nuts!

[Cooper1927]

Looks like it’s not an every year thing...

https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-fam...ras-committees


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[Kenny Cole]

They probably need yet another committee for consideration of eligible Negro League players. I doubt anyone one the Early Baseball Committee knows come here from sic 'em about who should be elected from the Negro Leagues, and that is one area where there are still plenty of deserving players IMO.