Health of Asset Class - Over/Under 1955 Topps Koufax PSA 9

[Rhotchkiss]

I am sitting in an airport bored and checking different auction house websites. Goldin has some “top 100” auction coming up and I looked at the preview. One card they have in that auction is a PSA 9, 1955 Topps Sandy Koufax rookie (staring bid $50k). This seems like a true investor card/canary in the coal mine for card values, and so I started to check VCP on prices to guess what it’s “worth”. Here is a link to the auction preview: https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2...NzfoiI7ok8A&e=

Below are pics from VCP showing the sales history of PSA 9 sales (first pic) and the more robust sales history of PSA 8s (pics 2&3). As you can see, this card in an 8 peaked in late 2021/early 2022 and has generally been on a down swing since then, with the lowest comps being the most recent. I believe this tracks most vintage cards. However, the highest PSA comp is the most recent (November 2022) and clearly, 9s sell much more rarely than 8s.

Question: Based on this info (and anything else), what do you think this card sells for when the auction closes? Will it be higher or lower than my over/under price, and why?

I am placing the over/under at $345k and I am taking the under.

The psa 9, 2021 sale was $369k. Looking at the psa 8 comps, most recent sales appear to be about 10% below 2021 sales from August. So I am thinking about 10% below the psa 9, 2021 comp makes sense, putting it just below the $345k strike.

But this card could finish anywhere- I wouldn’t be surprised if it closed at $250k or over $400k, but I do believe there is more downside than upside potential vs the last comp. Factors such as economy, Covid boom and general card popularity, registry set collectors, the auction house, psa cert numbers (the high comp is a newer cert # and the card in question am old one), among other factors, could impact the final result. What do you think?

Favor- there are several on here who bitch, moan and complain on any thread that talks about values or grading. We get it, this type of thread is not for you. And I respect that. But please respect those for whom a thread like this may be interesting and don’t post here unless it’s generally in furtherance of the topic. For example, replies that are not needed: “I don’t care bc I only collect raw”. “Whatever it’s worth, liquidate your 401k”. “I would rather have a new house than this card”. “I don’t care what my cards are worth so I don’t care what this card is worth”. “Great, another what’s it worth thread”.