If you had....

[Vegas-guy]

25k to 30k to "invest" in card/cards what do you think is better?

1. Maybe a low grade T206 Plank?
2. A few high grade HOF's (Cobb, Johnson, Young) etc
3. Mid grade '52 Mantle?
4. '33 Goudey Nap Lajoie #106?
5. Other?

Remember only for "investment" take the collecting out of it.
Not that I have 25k to put into a card but ever since I sold off my collection and bought a house (what a pile of crap that turned out to be) I've always wondered if I had the money again what I should do with it???? Most people say stocks, 401k etc. but that didn't do much better!
It seems (at least over the last 10 years) that rare/high grade cards have done way better than houses and the stock market. What are your thoughts???
Thanks,
Reg

[kneerat]

Hello,

I don't think you can go wrong with a Plank. That, by far one of the most sought after cards in the hobby. If the price is right, I would buy the Plank.

[36GoudeyMan]

Investing carries with it the necessary requirement of liquidity. I don't see high liquidity in relatively "obscure" rarities such as a T206 Plank. The iniverse of subsequent buyers is small compared to a later, more well-known card/player. I don't think you will ever lose money or have a hard time finding buyers for upper grade (not a PSA 10, but solid 8s or 8.5s) of pre-WWII HOFers, especially Gehrig and Foxx. These are not out of reach for high-grade collectors, and there are established, oft-traded markets for these cards. Mid-grade Mantle, even a 52, can be more volatile than the pre-WWII HOFers, in my view.

If you need an ROI on your $25K that is vastly above what careful investing in the market can provide, cards may not be the right place in the first place. But if a 5-10% return is acceptable currently, with the prospect of muchmore but not with a risk of too much less, I think high-ish pre-WWII HOFers is a good place to be. I think its especially true where the market's been depressed (have to wait to get that ROI back up after the last 3 years) and solid buys can be had.

[sportscardpete]

If it was discretionary money I wouldn't worry about "liquidity". I'd probably get a t206 plank and put it in under my mattress for a few years =).

[Leon]

I would probably go with top tier HOF'ers from the most collected sets...and try to get the best looking cards I could but probably not the highest technical grades. I have always thought the grade of "6" is a pretty good combination of value and aesthetics for the money. Personally, I like even lower grade cards that have great eye appeal. Just some random thoughts ....

[Piratedogcardshows]

I would go with the Plank as well.

[taborton101]

I'd probably try to go for a nice grade 5.5 or 6 Mantle ('52)...might be personal bias because I happen to love that card, but I'd say you can't really go wrong with it...truly iconic card that even non-collectors will recognize, and I think if you had to sell it/liquidate in a hurry, you'd find more buyers than for the Plank (which I think is more of a niche' card for T206/tobacco collectors only...although there are lots of them out there too (including myself ))

[ullmandds]

I like some previously mentioned suggestions...planks good...personally don't think mantle topps rookie is a great investment as there are lots of them. I'd buy iconic cards in the best condition you could afford...t206 plank...rare back hoofer...t207 Lowry red cross...goudey lajoie...any Cobb rookie postcards ESP distaste fielding...Ruth rookie...etc.

[E93]

Plank or top tier HOFs in the way Leon described above.
JimB

[vintagerookies51]

I think the Plank would be a good investment. Another one I thought of is buying a few (or just 1 or 2) E107 HOFs.

[xdrx]

Any chance the Mantle bubble bursts as the generation of collectors who remember him first hand starts to "move on"?

I'm 43 and a non-Yankee fan. Mantle means no more to me than Aaron or Mays.

[ullmandds]

I think so

[Ronnie73]

I believe the only mantles 1952-1969 that have gone up in value are the higher grade PSA 9's and 10's. Lower grade Mantles that I sold 20 years ago, I can buy today for around the same price. I would invest in Babe Ruth before any Mantles but I believe the T212 Obaks are very under rated compared to T205's and T206's but a Plank would be nice too

[dstraate]

He mentioned the Goudeys, and that's where I'd go as well. If I were investing, I'd grab up some 33 Ruths. I think that those cards in particular have the power (i.e. name recognition) to create buyers that the others don't.

Mantle might lose some of his mystique, but the Babe will be around forever.

[Runscott]

The Plank and Lajoie cards are guaranteed - you'll always be able to find a wealthy collector or two who 'have to have' these.

Given how the 'big' cards such as these have gone up so much over the years, I'm wondering if it would be a horrible idea to cash in my 401k and buy one baseball card? (you know which one)

[Vegas-guy]

Originally Posted by Runscott

The Plank and Lajoie cards are guaranteed - you'll always be able to find a wealthy collector or two who 'have to have' these.

Given how the 'big' cards such as these have gone up so much over the years, I'm wondering if it would be a horrible idea to cash in my 401k and buy one baseball card? (you know which one)

Funny that you say that! I have a friend who told me to do the same thing after I was bitching that my 401k was down 40% over the last 2 years! Now I know I could move some things around and not be in such an aggressive area but.........

That's another thing that sparked this thread.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by Vegas-guy

Funny that you say that! I have a friend who told me to do the same thing after I was bitching that my 401k was down 40% over the last 2 years! Now I know I could move some things around and not be in such an aggressive area but.........

That's another thing that sparked this thread.

I look at it this way: I have a nice 401K but not enough to retire. 401K's aint doing doodly. I'm 10-15 years from retirement. Where would a 'great' card be in 10-15 years? I think most of the ones we have in mind would far outdistance your 401K. Plus, I'll be unemployed by this time next year, so free to do what I want with my 401K (with penalties, of course). Just thinking.

[Fred]

Based on the list I'd either go with the T206 Plank or "other". My "other" suggestion would be tough to find 19th century material. Yeah you could blow your wad on one card but IO'd probably spread it around and pick up a few nice cards.

[egbeachley]

For $25K, how about 2,500 low grade T206s for $10 each. If the price goes to $14 each in a few years that's better than a single $25K high grade HOFer that appreciated to $32K.

[skelly]

From an "investment" standpoint, I would stay away from the 52 Mantle. This card is far more common than people realize, and as Baby Boomers pass on, I can't see demand keeping up with the increase in supply. Some people might think I'm way off base, but I could really see high grade vintage wrapper and older display boxes becoming more sought after as the years go by. From a card standpoint, It seems that really high grade vintage hockey always outperforms SMR. Just not a lot of it, and hockey fans/collectors are always very passionate.

[BCauley]

I'd go with "other" and pick up a Joe Jackson. I don't see them ever going down, only up or at worst, staying level for a little while. On the chance that he is eventually allowed into the HOF (I'm hopeful!), possible short term bubble to sell for a decent profit if that is what someone wants to do.

[Orioles1954]

Ruth Ruth Ruth Ruth

or anyone in the Class of '36

[dstraate]

I don't know that I'd like my retirement to hinge on one item that I would have to pay insurance on. I realize that all investments have management fees, but dang!

[Vol]

Originally Posted by egbeachley

For $25K, how about 2,500 low grade T206s for $10 each. If the price goes to $14 each in a few years that's better than a single $25K high grade HOFer that appreciated to $32K.

Makes sense!

[bbcard1]

A few caveats.

I decided I would not invest in ball cards a long time ago because I enjoy them too much and cannot be objective about it. I just collect.

Long term, a Plank would be great, but I sense a tick up. You might not get as much card as you would think in the range you are talking about, in which case you need to reevaluate.

I really think the way to go for a good short-term, replicatable return would be to buy a nice set of a popular issue in good grade and bust it immediately, sell individually, repeat.

I am an example of how collectors are willing to pay more individually to complete their set, but are less interested in complete sets, because the thrill is in the hunt, not the kill.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by dstraate

I don't know that I'd like my retirement to hinge on one item that I would have to pay insurance on. I realize that all investments have management fees, but dang!

How about one chunk of gold?

[barrysloate]

Since it's difficult to know exactly which cards will appreciate the most in the future, why not simply build a nice collection, one that you will enjoy. Try to stress quality and buy good looking cards in the best grade you can afford. Focus on different sets and eras (some 19th century, tobacco, candy, gum); try to get Hall of Famers, or complete sets if you prefer; and probably not too much should be invested in postwar cards, since those are baby boomer driven. If you want to collect one postwar player, try Jackie Robinson, since he has transcended baseball and has become an important figure in American history.

In general, quality collections that are built and kept over a long period of time usually do increase in value. Whether they will outperform stocks, bonds, or precious metals I haven't a clue, but you should at least enjoy the project as you go along.

[deadballpaul]

Originally Posted by dstraate

He mentioned the Goudeys, and that's where I'd go as well. If I were investing, I'd grab up some 33 Ruths. I think that those cards in particular have the power (i.e. name recognition) to create buyers that the others don't.

Mantle might lose some of his mystique, but the Babe will be around forever.

No doubt about it. well said.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Since it's difficult to know exactly which cards will appreciate the most in the future, why not simply build a nice collection, one that you will enjoy. Try to stress quality and buy good looking cards in the best grade you can afford. Focus on different sets and eras (some 19th century, tobacco, candy, gum).

Really, when investment is your only consideration? You don't feel that there is more likelihood that the cards mentioned in the original post (especially the Plank and Lajoie) will appreciate more than some other more diversified collection that you put together?

I'm kind of surprised at this - it might be an interesting discussion topic to give people $100K in funny money and ask them to put together an investment 'collection', grades to be chosen as well, then let people vote on what they think the best investment choice was.

[barrysloate]

Scott- I was trying to find a balance between solely investing and the process of building a collection. For most collectors buying a Plank and/or Lajoie is either out of reach, or if affordable may be the only thing they can buy. If you want to buy just one card, put it in the safe deposit box, and move on I suppose that will work. But to buy a Plank and/or Lajoie as part of an active collection, one would need to have at least 100K or more to invest. How many on this board can afford to do this? Not too many. But anyone with even a modest budget can start building a collection.

It's a matter of philosphy. Do you want to put just the one card away, or do you want to actively build the portfolio over time? Either one will work.

[4815162342]

Originally Posted by Runscott

Really, when investment is your only consideration? You don't feel that there is more likelihood that the cards mentioned in the original post (especially the Plank and Lajoie) will appreciate more than some other more diversified collection that you put together?

I'm kind of surprised at this - it might be an interesting discussion topic to give people $100K in funny money and ask them to put together an investment 'collection', grades to be chosen as well, then let people vote on what they think the best investment choice was.

Or better yet, look at the values of those "funny money" investment collections one year later to see who comes out on top.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Scott- I was trying to find a balance between solely investing and the process of building a collection. For most collectors buying a Plank and/or Lajoie is either out of reach, or if affordable may be the only thing they can buy. If you want to buy just one card, put it in the safe deposit box, and move on I suppose that will work. But to buy a Plank and/or Lajoie as part of an active collection, one would need to have at least 100K or more to invest. How many on this board can afford to do this? Not too many. But anyone with even a modest budget can start building a collection.

It's a matter of philosphy. Do you want to put just the one card away, or do you want to actively build the portfolio over time? Either one will work.

I completely agree with you. What you suggest is exactly what all of us are doing. You can't really be a 'collector' if you only have one or two cards.

I thought you were responding to the original post and suggesting something altogether different for him to do with the amount of money he mentioned. If you drop his original constraints of card options, and also assume he has far less money, then that puts things back at square one, and I agree that no collector (by definition) will be putting all he has into one or two cards. Investing is something altogether different.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by 4815162342

Or better yet, look at the values of those "funny money" investment collections one year later to see who comes out on top.

Just prior to 911, I considered quitting my job, cashing out my 401K, and investing it all in expensive auction lots (like some of the 1800s small sets Mastro used to have, t206 HOFer lots, etc), breaking up and re-selling, saving some as investments. I didn't do it. I should have.

[Doug]

I'd probably go with the few high grade HOFers. If you get popular cards they should stay in demand and if you get high end cards for the grade you might get a premium when you go to sell them.

[terjung]

It's really tough to say because we aren't talking apples to apples. Compounding interest apart from taxes is a powerful thing. Will cards be able to equal that? Not sure they can.

For that price range, it is tough to argue against the T206 Plank. Though I wouldn't put money in that personally (mostly due to my indifference for the set), I can certainly see how the Wagner's meteoric rise helps to pull the Plank up.

[Vegas-guy]

The 1 bad thing I see with say 2 or 3 high end HOF's (example) is that yes they have gone up in value over the last 10 years maybe 30 - 40% if that! Now that seems like a lot but spread out over 10 years it's really not that much.

Now with regards to the T206 Plank, it's increased in value in the same 10 years to almost 300% I know this because in 2001 I was offered a Plank PSA 3 for 17k and now it would sell for around 60k or more! Now having said that, yes this is a much harder item to sell (or be liquid) not to many people have that kind of money, but I'm talking about an investment of at least 10yrs or more not something I'm going to sell soon. This also leaves my "normal" amount of funds to build a collection on nice lower end cards.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by Vegas-guy

The 1 bad thing I see with say 2 or 3 high end HOF's (example) is that yes they have gone up in value over the last 10 years maybe 30 - 40% if that! Now that seems like a lot but spread out over 10 years it's really not that much.

Now with regards to the T206 Plank, it's increased in value in the same 10 years to almost 300% I know this because in 2001 I was offered a Plank PSA 3 for 17k and now it would sell for around 60k or more! Now having said that, yes this is a much harder item to sell (or be liquid) not to many people have that kind of money, but I'm talking about an investment of at least 10yrs or more not something I'm going to sell soon. This also leaves my "normal" amount of funds to build a collection on nice lower end cards.

So, I'm going with your thoughts as well as Barry's: I'll cash out my 401K and buy a handful of t206 Planks, while using discretionary income of about $30 per month to begin a normal collection. All of you will always have a better collection than me, but what will I call my pile of Planks?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Runscott

but what will I call my pile of Planks?

A pile of Planks.

[terjung]

Originally Posted by Runscott

but what will I call my pile of Planks?

Your 206K fund?

[joeadcock]

Originally Posted by Runscott

but what will I call my pile of Planks?

A nice pile

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

I like some previously mentioned suggestions...planks good...personally don't think mantle topps rookie is a great investment as there are lots of them. I'd buy iconic cards in the best condition you could afford...t206 plank...rare back hoofer...t207 Lowry red cross...goudey lajoie...any Cobb rookie postcards ESP distaste fielding...Ruth rookie...etc.

+1 here. IMHO, the '52 Mantle is quite overpriced relative to the number available in mid-grade and lower. The Plank will always be a high demand card that is quite rare relative to the number of collectors who desire it and a key to one of the greatest sets of all time (and I don't even collect it, yet!). Better catch up to one of the M101 Ruths quickly, though. I remember when I just lost out in an auction for one in ExMt in the early to mid '90's (I believe it went in the six thousand range, and I didn't get out of the fives), and I seem to recall that one of the more prominent dealers (Memory Lane?) was offering a TPG card in ExMt for $100,000.

Personally, I like Cobb's various 1907 rookie postcards (and admittedly am biased, as I have both the Dietsche Fielding and Batting position examples) as being very undervalued in comparison to their availability and significance. Plus, postcards (and Exhibits) seem to be emerging with their much more general acceptance as baseball cards and the fact that PSA and SGC especially offer nice, attractive TPG holders for them.

As long as there is baseball, a continuing flow of media info re the history of the game in the form of books and television, there will always be demand for players such as Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, Mathewson and their peers. I do think that restoration is a coming thing which is in the process of growing in acceptance. That may well reduce the value of very high-grade examples of the upper echelon HOF'ers which are only tough to obtain in the sense that they are condition rarities. IMHO, stay with key cards that are very scarce to quite rare in any grade, with good eye appeal.

Best of luck if you take the $$$ plunge, and happy collecting in any event,

Larry

[terjung]

Good post, Larry!
I'd think it's probably safe to add Wagner to that list along with Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, and Matty.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by terjung

Good post, Larry!
I'd think it's probably safe to add Wagner to that list along with Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, and Matty.

What I don't get is how the Goudey Ruth and Gehrigs are so pricey when there were so many of each in the sets, and apparently there were tons printed. I can understand the non-Goudeys of these two, but if I were investing in a Goudey Ruth or Gehrig, it would have to be high-grade.

[jezzeaepi]

When selling a card though, don't you have to pay fees? I know if I sell something on ebay I have to pay an ebay fee and a paypal fee. Isn't it hard to "make money" selling cards if you always have to overcome a ~20% hurdle just to break even? What about taxes?

[terjung]

Originally Posted by Runscott

What I don't get is how the Goudey Ruth and Gehrigs are so pricey when there were so many of each in the sets, and apparently there were tons printed. I can understand the non-Goudeys of these two, but if I were investing in a Goudey Ruth or Gehrig, it would have to be high-grade.

I wasn't suggesting a Goudey Ruth (and don't think Larry was either). He specifically mentioned M101-5.

The Goudey cards are probably closest to being liquid (if there is such a thing) due to the popularity of the set(s). The 1934 Goudey Gehrig #37 is iconic and will likely always find a buyer.

Cobb and Wagner are probably the safest bets (in that order), but Matty, Ruth, Gehrig aren't far behind and are in the same discussion. If non-collectors have heard of them (Cobb, Wagner, Ruth and Gehrig all qualify), then you know there is collectibility there. Collectibility breeds demand, which raises cost.

[GaryPassamonte]

Like any other investment, diversification would be the key. Buying a high end, expensive card is akin to putting all your money in the stock market. There is a greater upside, but also a greater downside. By buying a wide range of cards from different eras, you are better protecting the downside of your investment, although your appreciation may be slower.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by terjung

I wasn't suggesting a Goudey Ruth (and don't think Larry was either). He specifically mentioned M101-5.

It was what I like to call "an aside". I got off-track, sorry for that, but thanks for your thoughts.

[yanksfan09]

Originally Posted by dstraate

He mentioned the Goudeys, and that's where I'd go as well. If I were investing, I'd grab up some 33 Ruths. I think that those cards in particular have the power (i.e. name recognition) to create buyers that the others don't.

Mantle might lose some of his mystique, but the Babe will be around forever.

In the words of "The Babe" himself (sort of), "Heroes get remembered, but legends never die. Follow your heart keed, you'll never go wrong...." (Sandlot)