The National will be interesting

[Snapolit1]

Should be interesting to see how the National plays out this year. Seems like the entire hobby is in a down mode. Modern stuff has fallen off the proverbial cliff and hurt a lot of people. A lot of vintage feels to me to be in the doldrums. Most vintage stuff down a bit and lot of people seem to be on the sidelines or taking a breather. eBay seems dead. Even our BST doesn’t seem like what it was. Not in the hysterical period any more.

Even on this board the buzz seems awfully low.

[theshowandme]

I'll be there window shopping.

Spent all my money in Paris a few weeks ago.

I imagine many others have gone back to putting significant $ towards family vacations and entertainment (concerts, major sporting events, etc.).

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Most years, it seems like someone posts something similar, then their fears are dispelled once the show happens.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

Most years, it seems like someone posts something similar, then their fears are dispelled once the show happens.

Entirely possible. And afterwards someone will post that they heard from a friend sales were way down and someone else will post that they kicked ass and sold a ton.

Pretty hard to deny that there isn’t a great buzz heading into this.

I will hold off for the east coast national in westchester in August. Maybe I will arrange a Net 54 dinner at the Nathan’s hot dog concession.

[Kco]

It'll be a "normal" national, not like Chicago in 2021 after missing a year and with money pouring into the hobby.

Vintage Autos/Memorabilia and card prices remain strong, if not at all time highs of a couple years ago. Modern is an area I do not dabble in, but its been getting whacked sans a few product lines and players for a couple years now.

I for one won't mind if the show isn't absolutely overrun with crowds personally. It's also all relative, eBay is a dumping ground of stuff that generally is left over for many sellers. The best items rarely make it there and often end up in AH's or private dealers.

I think I buy about 1/10th of my collection, at most, off eBay.

[Johnny630]

I will say Vintage Raw Cards will sell well especially if priced fairly and middle grade or better. Many people are buying these cards and grading them. Just look at GM they list lots of raw cards in said condition and they do very well... people will pay up for nice eye appeal middle grade raw cards to grade themselves. Look at PSA and SGC submission numbers they're always high or higher than last month.

I will say people with graded material at 2021/22 prices whom are not willing to considerably negotiate or their sticker will be sitting there basically with a show and tell week.

[Exhibitman]

There you go again, Steve, stirring things up.

The crazy is over and the desperation buying it fueled is over too, which is fine with me as a buyer and as a dealer. I view it like a correction in the stock market. We had a hell of a bull run, now we give back some of the profits. Sure, I have a few purchases I wish I'd not made, but overall, still way, way up from 2020. Going forward, the rule is pretty simple and time-tested: good stuff at fair prices sells readily; not so good stuff is good bargain-hunting. Last show I worked was Pasadena in May and I had a strong sales weekend. My eBay sales are very brisk lately. I have good stuff and I don't price-gouge. I also sell lesser material for lesser prices and it flies out of my picking boxes at shows. Same holds true as a buyer: For my PC I've won an item or two in most of the recent auctions and all but two items (a signed Joe Louis piece I'd been after for years and a signed Richard Petty card from the 1952 Topps of NASCAR sets; see my recent column live-streaming my bidding strategy that night in Heritage) were with conservative max bids that I was happy to win at and content to lose with if beaten by a higher bid. For resale, I've been able to bottom-feed readily and expect a lot more of the same as wannabes bail out (don't hate the player, hate the game).

Any dealer at the National with fairly priced good stuff will do great. Anyone catering to budgeted collectors will do great. Any dealer trying to whale hunt or gouge desperate buyers on anything mainstream will be sitting in a mini-museum.

[jbsports33]

I also really second that thought!!!

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I'll be there window shopping.

Spent all my money in Paris a few weeks ago.

I imagine many others have gone back to putting significant $ towards family vacations and entertainment (concerts, major sporting events, etc.).

[calvindog]

The National has become largely an advertising vehicle for corporations; it's become much harder to buy significant cards. The best stuff you'll see will be items featured in upcoming auctions.

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by calvindog

The National has become largely an advertising vehicle for corporations; it's become much harder to buy significant cards. The best stuff you'll see will be items featured in upcoming auctions.

Agreed. That coupled with the cost to travel from the west coast when airfare and hotels are in play make it an easy decison for me.

I haven't attended a National in over 7 years and purchase most of my items via auction house anymore, and am perfectly fine by doing so.

[Leon]

The National is largely a social event for a lot of hobbyists, as myself.

I generally find a few things, here and there, but not always. Here are 3 from last years National.

.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Originally Posted by calvindog

The best stuff you'll see will be items featured in upcoming auctions.

Much of which is previously regurgitated material that we're all far too familiar with. Regardless if rehashed snoozers or exciting new discoveries, all can be viewed from the comfort of home.

[packs]

I don't really think shows of any scale are a barometer of the market. I've been to more shows than I can remember and I rarely ever bought anything at them, even going back all the way to the early internet days. I have always found the card show to be more of a museum than an active trading ground but it doesn't stop me from having a good time looking around.

I can remember the early eBay days when I would be at a show trying to work a deal and out would come the price guide. The dealer would decide what condition their card was in, and then tell you why this particular card is a lot nicer than the average card and worth above book value, meanwhile any time I tried to sell one of my cards it was always poor eye appeal and the dealer could only offer below book value on it.

Hasn't changed much, but I still have fun.

[1954 topps]

During the huge swing in rising prices starting in 2020 I shifted my focus within my high grade ‘54 topps set. Instead of overspending on commons and minor stars I picked up only two cards in several years (extremely hard as a collector) Willie Mays in 2020 and Jackie Robinson in 2022. Just now in 2024 am I starting to pick up a few commons again. Prices are still practically double 2018 comps but down relatively.
My thought was big HOF’s would long term appreciate and have a much higher chance of maintaining these inflated values while commons would eventually settle down closer to normal. I believe the market overall will decline a little more over the summer and believe most people feel similarly, so cash typically talks at the National.
I’ll be looking for either Ted well centered at the National. There were zero at the last two Nationals combined in PSA 8 so my odds aren’t exactly promising.

[Bobbycee]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Should be interesting to see how the National plays out this year. Seems like the entire hobby is in a down mode. Modern stuff has fallen off the proverbial cliff and hurt a lot of people. A lot of vintage feels to me to be in the doldrums. Most vintage stuff down a bit and lot of people seem to be on the sidelines or taking a breather. eBay seems dead. Even our BST doesn’t seem like what it was. Not in the hysterical period any more.

Even on this board the buzz seems awfully low.

Spot on about the B/S/T, especially with T206.
I'm wondering if there is a wait & see approach right now, with so many stock market experts calling for an impending correction.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Bobbycee

Spot on about the B/S/T, especially with T206.
I'm wondering if there is a wait & see approach right now, with so many stock market experts calling for an impending correction.

Those are the same experts who've predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions.

[Jewish-collector]

It depends on your perspective with the hobby. The novelty of attending a national is over for many collectors. You can find the cards you want in the auction houses. The best part of the National is actually meeting up with hobby friends/forum members after the show ends. And, the meetup dinners.

[Gradedcardman]

This is a very similar conversation every year. Is the market up, is it down is it even. Did PWCC screw things up, is Probstein not good for the industry. Regardless, the show the last few years has been an eye opener for me. Watching the younger crowd sell the shiny and then run to buy the vintage. People buying to complete sets or player sets. Some like me looking for the Whales. I would love to find a few for the collection but watching others is almost as fun for me.

Hope to see some of you their.

[Jewish-collector]

See you in Cleveland, Adam. beer chug.gifbeer chug.gifbeer chug.gif

[bigfish]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Should be interesting to see how the National plays out this year. Seems like the entire hobby is in a down mode. Modern stuff has fallen off the proverbial cliff and hurt a lot of people. A lot of vintage feels to me to be in the doldrums. Most vintage stuff down a bit and lot of people seem to be on the sidelines or taking a breather. eBay seems dead. Even our BST doesn’t seem like what it was. Not in the hysterical period any more.

Even on this board the buzz seems awfully low.

I think it’s going to be a great show. Always fun to see friends from all over and look at great cards. Just like most things in life in you go in with a miserable attitude and a negative outlook you probably will have a miserable time. It’s great to stay away from those people.

Have fun everyone !

[Steve_NY]

Well said -- if you go in with a positive attitude, you will have a positive show. If you go there expecting a negative experience, you will find a way to make it negative.

My mom always said, "If you have nothing nice to say, say nothing at all."

But for the most part, the negative posters are not going to the National anyway. Will we miss them, not really as there will always be many more to replace them. I just wish they would keep their opinions to themselves.

In fact, when I have nice things to say, I do that. But when I have negative things to say, I typically keep them mostly to myself, unless I feel that my opinion will help others.

Let's all have a great show with lots of fun and friends. Yes, for the booth holders like me, we want to make money, but we also want to see friends who we only see once a year -- sometimes once every two years. See you in 2 weeks+.

Steve_NY