The National will be interesting
 

Should be interesting to see how the National plays out this year. Seems like the entire hobby is in a down mode. Modern stuff has fallen off the proverbial cliff and hurt a lot of people. A lot of vintage feels to me to be in the doldrums. Most vintage stuff down a bit and lot of people seem to be on the sidelines or taking a breather. eBay seems dead. Even our BST doesn’t seem like what it was. Not in the hysterical period any more.

Even on this board the buzz seems awfully low.

I'll be there window shopping.

Spent all my money in Paris a few weeks ago.

I imagine many others have gone back to putting significant $ towards family vacations and entertainment (concerts, major sporting events, etc.).

Most years, it seems like someone posts something similar, then their fears are dispelled once the show happens.

Entirely possible. And afterwards someone will post that they heard from a friend sales were way down and someone else will post that they kicked ass and sold a ton.

Pretty hard to deny that there isn’t a great buzz heading into this.

I will hold off for the east coast national in westchester in August. Maybe I will arrange a Net 54 dinner at the Nathan’s hot dog concession.

It'll be a "normal" national, not like Chicago in 2021 after missing a year and with money pouring into the hobby.

Vintage Autos/Memorabilia and card prices remain strong, if not at all time highs of a couple years ago. Modern is an area I do not dabble in, but its been getting whacked sans a few product lines and players for a couple years now.

I for one won't mind if the show isn't absolutely overrun with crowds personally. It's also all relative, eBay is a dumping ground of stuff that generally is left over for many sellers. The best items rarely make it there and often end up in AH's or private dealers.

I think I buy about 1/10th of my collection, at most, off eBay.

During the huge swing in rising prices starting in 2020 I shifted my focus within my high grade ‘54 topps set. Instead of overspending on commons and minor stars I picked up only two cards in several years (extremely hard as a collector) Willie Mays in 2020 and Jackie Robinson in 2022. Just now in 2024 am I starting to pick up a few commons again. Prices are still practically double 2018 comps but down relatively.
My thought was big HOF’s would long term appreciate and have a much higher chance of maintaining these inflated values while commons would eventually settle down closer to normal. I believe the market overall will decline a little more over the summer and believe most people feel similarly, so cash typically talks at the National.
I’ll be looking for either Ted well centered at the National. There were zero at the last two Nationals combined in PSA 8 so my odds aren’t exactly promising.

I will say Vintage Raw Cards will sell well especially if priced fairly and middle grade or better. Many people are buying these cards and grading them. Just look at GM they list lots of raw cards in said condition and they do very well... people will pay up for nice eye appeal middle grade raw cards to grade themselves. Look at PSA and SGC submission numbers they're always high or higher than last month.

I will say people with graded material at 2021/22 prices whom are not willing to considerably negotiate or their sticker will be sitting there basically with a show and tell week.

There you go again, Steve, stirring things up. :D

The crazy is over and the desperation buying it fueled is over too, which is fine with me as a buyer and as a dealer. I view it like a correction in the stock market. We had a hell of a bull run, now we give back some of the profits. Sure, I have a few purchases I wish I'd not made, but overall, still way, way up from 2020. Going forward, the rule is pretty simple and time-tested: good stuff at fair prices sells readily; not so good stuff is good bargain-hunting. Last show I worked was Pasadena in May and I had a strong sales weekend. My eBay sales are very brisk lately. I have good stuff and I don't price-gouge. I also sell lesser material for lesser prices and it flies out of my picking boxes at shows. Same holds true as a buyer: For my PC I've won an item or two in most of the recent auctions and all but two items (a signed Joe Louis piece I'd been after for years and a signed Richard Petty card from the 1952 Topps of NASCAR sets; see my recent column live-streaming my bidding strategy that night in Heritage) were with conservative max bids that I was happy to win at and content to lose with if beaten by a higher bid. For resale, I've been able to bottom-feed readily and expect a lot more of the same as wannabes bail out (don't hate the player, hate the game).

Any dealer at the National with fairly priced good stuff will do great. Anyone catering to budgeted collectors will do great. Any dealer trying to whale hunt or gouge desperate buyers on anything mainstream will be sitting in a mini-museum.

I need to give you a steady stream of trite collecting observations for your blog.

Seriously, I enjoy reading your Blog very much. Great work.


Exhibitman;2444818]There you go again, Steve, stirring things up. :D

The crazy is over, which is fine with me as a buyer and as a dealer. Good stuff at fair prices sells readily. Last show I worked was Pasadena in May and I had a strong sales weekend. My eBay sales are very brisk lately. I have good stuff and I don't price-gouge. Same holds true as a buyer: I've won an item or two in most of the recent auctions and all but two items were with conservative max bids that I was happy to win at and content to lose with if beaten by a higher bid.

Any dealer at the National with fairly priced good stuff will do great. Any dealer trying to gouge will be sitting in a mini-museum.[/QUOTE]

If you price them fairly, they will come.

My personal thoughts are that SO much stuff comes up for sale SO often…it helps fill people’s wants and needs so they don’t have to “hold out” until shows.

I’ve found two cards I’ve been hunting for years in the last 6 months so I’m going to the national with very little on my want list.

Well attended as always, but will they be spending there? That is the big question.

Make no mistake, you will be in sticker shock at some of the prices. Many of the dealers set up there made a ton of money in the last few years, so they don't have to come off prices, even in a "down market".

No question there is a down mode on prices and interest, maybe it's just summer - who knows. Really - for vintage there is too much new stuff in the way and making it harder to buy at shows. The National should give us some perspective.

Thanks for the post/question.

Jimmy

I also really second that thought!!!

The National has become largely an advertising vehicle for corporations; it's become much harder to buy significant cards. The best stuff you'll see will be items featured in upcoming auctions.

Agreed. That coupled with the cost to travel from the west coast when airfare and hotels are in play make it an easy decison for me.

I haven't attended a National in over 7 years and purchase most of my items via auction house anymore, and am perfectly fine by doing so.

The National is largely a social event for a lot of hobbyists, as myself.

I generally find a few things, here and there, but not always. Here are 3 from last years National.

.

Hey, Leon, that's a pretty productive show. The clarity on the Frederick's is fantastic.

I've always looked forward to a big show as a place for oddball finds, the sort of stuff I didn't know I needed until I saw it, for tougher regional cards, and to fill out sets. Not so much to make a marquee acquisition, though I was pleased as punch to get the last Koufax I needed for my food card run (a 1958 Bell) at a great price at the 2019 show.

I'm not even going this year due to a variety of family and business commitments but rarin' to get back into it next year in Chicago.

Much of which is previously regurgitated material that we're all far too familiar with. Regardless if rehashed snoozers or exciting new discoveries, all can be viewed from the comfort of home.

I don't really think shows of any scale are a barometer of the market. I've been to more shows than I can remember and I rarely ever bought anything at them, even going back all the way to the early internet days. I have always found the card show to be more of a museum than an active trading ground but it doesn't stop me from having a good time looking around.

I can remember the early eBay days when I would be at a show trying to work a deal and out would come the price guide. The dealer would decide what condition their card was in, and then tell you why this particular card is a lot nicer than the average card and worth above book value, meanwhile any time I tried to sell one of my cards it was always poor eye appeal and the dealer could only offer below book value on it.

Hasn't changed much, but I still have fun.

Spot on about the B/S/T, especially with T206.
I'm wondering if there is a wait & see approach right now, with so many stock market experts calling for an impending correction.

Feels to me like the OP could use an anti-depressant. The market is off of it's highs. BFD. It has been off it's highs before, since I have been involved and it will be off again. Overall the market feels pretty strong all things considered given the economy. I am still losing out on most of the things I bid on so it cannot be that soft. I would focus on the better buys and not the pov of a falling sky.

That's odd . . . a dozen or so people agree with me . . .and you think I'm mentally ill. Very interesting.

Lately you have been starting a lot of threads that are nuanced in negativity. I have no issues with someone echoing a negative sentiment but it is repeated. I see the same thing as you and the "dozen" others but I have a different perspective about it. The market is down from where it was. Start buying up the bargains or just wait until you feel it has bottomed out. Guess what? Each of us has skin in the game.

Was not suggesting you were mentally ill in the way you have framed the term but you sound depressed because you keep posting the same sentiment. I was simply trying to give another POV.

Shows are probably the best barometer of the market IMO. You need all types of people to be engaged and all types of people attend shows.

Maybe a barometer for the health of card shows but doesn't trading need to occur for it to be a barometer of the market? There are a lot of threads about shows on the board all the time. Occasionally someone has some nice scores that they post but for the most part, they are simply reports of what was seen and light on buying.

My personal experience has been that the card show is more of a museum experience for people to look at things rather than an active trading post.

At the show I just went to on Saturday, the same vintage dealers still displayed the exact same cards they displayed at the last show I was at a couple of months ago. If you took a photograph of their cases at each event, it would look as if they were taken on the same day. Nothing changes. Crazytown pricing.

319. Louvre Affair
Cards that sit forever unsold due to their seller’s penchant for ‘museum’ pricing.

Those are the same experts who've predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions. :D

It depends on your perspective with the hobby. The novelty of attending a national is over for many collectors. You can find the cards you want in the auction houses. The best part of the National is actually meeting up with hobby friends/forum members after the show ends. And, the meetup dinners.

Haven't you heard? Nowadays you're not allowed to disagree with someone without hurling insults. We just follow our great role models in America ;)

I don’t think the stuff that people on this board collect is stuff that moves well at any show. Generally speaking.

Our small portion of the hobby isn’t a good representation of the whole.

It's bad when the market is strong (can't buy anything) and bad when it's down (hobby is going to hell).

I guess I'm a Pollyanna, but I freakin' love the National. I don't get to walk around as much as I'd like but each of the last few years I have seen stuff that interested me at reasonable prices.

lol

“Louvre Affair” might be your best pun yet. Bravo.

My bad:
 

I thought that it meant cheating on your wife with a tennis scorekeeper ? ?

Well, thank you, kind sir.

Even though puns are thought of as the lowest form of humor, I completely disagree. Effective (that there is the key word) pun-play is super frickin' tough!! :eek:

As a National booth holder for 40+ years, I am always interested in tracking the trends - but those same trends do not always surface at the National. I have survived all of the downturns in the hobby over the past 48 years. How do I do it? Evolve - Even at the National, I don’t believe that you should set up a similar display two years in a row. Yes, even though I see the same customers and more every year I really want them to see a different display of items I have for sale. So when I hear that dealers set up the same display every month at a show, that is just not the way to attract customers and keep them coming back.

Am I concerned about this National, yes and no. I am showcasing a display that i used to do off and on in the 80s and 90s, and expect that customers will appreciate what I have to offer. It took me a week to prepare for 30% of that display and will continue to prepare the rest over the next month.

As long as the people show up, I contend that if you have a killer display, and you stand out, then they will always find you whether you are set up in the front of the room or in the rear.

I don't particularly care about trends but I will overpay for the cards on my wanlist.

I think most people who have bought good cards over a long period have done just fine economically, even if that was not the intent. Going forward who knows.

Agreed, I'm a collector so anytime I can add a card irrespective of the market I'm happy.

I'd agree, but the hobby is very front loaded at this juncture. Many people jumped in for the easy money. Lots of eye balls watching every auction, before the card is even shipped it's relisted in FB groups for 30% higher. Happy I sold aboit 80% of my collection, and adding when I see some underwriter items I like. However, it is few and far between even the smallest auctiin house, or random mislisted card make it unseen to an auctions end.

Many people jumped in for the easy money. Lots of eye balls watching every auction, before the card is even shipped it's relisted in FB groups for 30% higher.

What you said here is exactly what I see on FB groups weekly. It's like dude if you were the high bidder in an auction on said card what makes you think you will be able to flip it right away for 30% more? I guess the big question is if they were really the high bidder? Who knows anymore lol.

I do agree with Peter on this one - I have been buying for almost 50 years - and as long as you don’t get involved in the quick hits you do very well over time. If you jumped in trying to make big money on the latest hot items like modern cards - then you were foolish and should not be involved in this hobby. I only buy 1880s - 1975 and yes there were slow times when customers were gun shy for a while. But vintage has always been a safe investment.

Now I did dally with new product for 15 years when it was super hot in the late 70s and 80s and early 90s. While I made a ton of money doing that but I passed many vintage deals at that time - and made some classic blunders. Still the money was immediate except for when some dealers started buying more than they could sell and killed it for the rest of us.

You can’t go wrong with vintage unless you start buying graded cards that you can’t move quickly. My display at this year’s National will be easily 85% to 95% or more raw ungraded. I can control my prices better with ungraded product- that way I can pass the discount back to my customers.


Steve_NY
Booth 800
8 booths in the main entrance

I can’t speak for anyone else, but I’m kinda fried on buying right now. Still a couple cards I’m actively looking for (anyone have a T3 Lord?), but the browsing has come to a grinding hault.

The Natty, as always, will be fun for those there to see cool things and socialize, but will also break some hearts and send a lot of guys home with cash still in hand.

This. I almost exclusively sell raw cards at shows, and most are modestly priced. Even in down times, dealers with ex-mt and below raw cards in quantity do just fine. Look at the picking booths at the National (assuming any are left). Steady flow of business all weekend even in 2007-2008-2009. As long as you don't get out over the fronts of your skis when buying, things will go well.

I'll second that notion.

In my case, rather than spend a king's ransom on 2-3 pieces of cardboard on my upgrade list, I chose to spend it on a non-cardboard item that brings me more joy than the cardboard upgrades would have delivered.

I am seeing the same sentiment as the OP from a lot of other comments about the National. It was the same sentiment after Strongsville this year. I wouldn't say disappointment, but maybe malaise?

The fever pitch of the last few years is over. Maybe the smart move is to stand pat. I am pretty content with my collection right now. Sure, I may add a few, but I am no rush to overspend.

A quote I heard earlier this week really resonated with me. "Comparison is the thief of joy". Enjoy your collection folks.

I would very much like to attend the National, except the math doesn’t work well for Canadians.

$1 US = $1.40 Canadian

I'd say more overload than malaise. There is so much opportunity for acquiring material, from multiple big auctions every week to eBay to resurgent local shows, that it just doesn't seem urgent to go to the National for the stuff. As others have said, it has become more of a social event, and the lack of a central hotel complex and a venue that is miles from anything else turns this year's show into a less-than-ideal situation for socializing. Add to that the costs and inconveniences of travel and quite a few collectors are giving it a pass this year. I'm heading to NYC instead for the weekend of the 16th for the East Coast National and the Fanaticsfest. Then I come home to work the Anaheim show the next weekend, and the Pasadena show two weeks after that.