Topps to be replaced as the BB Card Manuracturer

[ValKehl]

Originally Posted by Mark17

This is what will happen:

Some entrepreneur with $100,000 in capital will go to amateur state championship tournaments in various states, and put together a nice 500 card set of 20 or 30 top amateur teams. They'll pay the teams a very nominal amount, plus give them free cards. No additional licenses needed.

Then they'll print the cards on standard stock and package them in wax packs for retail sale at maybe 50 cents for 10 cards.

They'll make a fortune, and collectors, especially kids, will be able to have fun playing with cards again.

Mark, I can see something like this happening, but with college teams, and with all the major sports, not just baseball. I think this would take much more initial capital, say $25M or more, as the NCAA would demand a huge fee for an exclusive deal and college athletes can now be compensated.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Bigdaddy

What's next?? Ford stop making cars? Levis not made in the US anymore? Chick Fil A not serving their chicken salad sammich?



It's a Mad Mad Mad Mad World.



Seriously though, I feel like it's the end of an era. I don't understand why the trading card license has to be exclusive. Is there not room for multiple manufacturers? MLB does not limit manufacturing rights to jerseys, hats, t-shirts, etc to only one company.

Except for Mustang, Ford stopped making cars 2 years ago, they are a truck manufacturer now.

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[JustinD]

Topps has had the exclusive license since 2010 and there has not been one year without unlicensed logo competition. The Panini releases are always unlicensed and honestly the donruss diamond kings have consistently beat the Topps design in my mind.

They won’t have team logos but this is certainly not closing Topps doors, it won’t slow the release schedules at all.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Topps has had the exclusive license since 2010 and there has not been one year without unlicensed logo competition. The Panini releases are always unlicensed and honestly the donruss diamond kings have consistently beat the Topps design in my mind.

They won’t have team logos but this is certainly not closing Topps doors, it won’t slow the release schedules at all.

Without permission to use the players' pictures, what can they do on the Major League level without being sued? Even if they could produce a set, how ugly would it be with every player wearing a generic air brushed hat and uniform?

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Without permission to use the players' pictures, what can they do on the Major League level without being sued? Even if they could produce a set, how ugly would it be with every player wearing a generic air brushed hat and uniform?

I understand you are likely strictly a vintage collector but as was stated topps has had the exclusive license since 2010. For an example of how it can be done, just google any non-topps mlb release for the past 11 years. The mlb license is for logos not players.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by JustinD

I understand you are likely strictly a vintage collector but as was stated topps has had the exclusive license since 2010. For an example of how it can be done, just google any non-topps mlb release for the past 11 years. The mlb license is for logos not players.

Understood, but this deal also includes the Players' Association.

"That longevity was threatened Thursday, as The Action Network confirmed that Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association have given their exclusive licenses to Fanatics."

[todeen]

I've recently been turning to SGA team sets, and minor league sets. I wonder how the shakeup will affect that? Too expensive to buy modern anymore.

Also, if the card bubble bursts in 2023, wil Fanatics deal fall apart? Or will it become the new junk wax era?

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[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Understood, but this deal also includes the Players' Association.

"That longevity was threatened Thursday, as The Action Network confirmed that Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association have given their exclusive licenses to Fanatics."

Apologies, I did not read the mlbpa note. It leaves me to wonder if they will issue multiple licenses for additional cash even as it says exclusive as they have no history of exclusive deals. If the players see additional cash not taken it could cause more problems than on the mlb side. I don’t see this working in a positive way to give exclusivity to a private company with zero production or distribution experience outside their own sites.

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by JustinD

I don’t see this working in a positive way to give exclusivity to a private company with zero production or distribution experience outside their own sites.

If the deal involves huge, guaranteed, up-front cash, I could see it.

[Mungo Hungo]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Apologies, I did not read the mlbpa note. It leaves me to wonder if they will issue multiple licenses for additional cash even as it says exclusive as they have no history of exclusive deals. If the players see additional cash not taken it could cause more problems than on the mlb side. I don’t see this working in a positive way to give exclusivity to a private company with zero production or distribution experience outside their own sites.

Issuing multiple licenses seems very unlikely, since Fanatics, or whatever it is they're called, paid for an exclusive license. MLBPA would most certainly be in breach, and subject to substantial damages.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Apologies, I did not read the mlbpa note. It leaves me to wonder if they will issue multiple licenses for additional cash even as it says exclusive as they have no history of exclusive deals. If the players see additional cash not taken it could cause more problems than on the mlb side. I don’t see this working in a positive way to give exclusivity to a private company with zero production or distribution experience outside their own sites.

MLB and MLBPA have ownership in the new company. They gave themselves the exclusive license. The NFL and NFLPA have ownership, too. NBAPA does, too. So Panini can kiss their NFL license goodbye as well. The players from the NBA and NFL have already signed deals with the new company.

And these guys have 4 years to figure this stuff out. I expect distribution and production to be minor issues at best.

[BobC]

So the question becomes, does Fanatics find and hire their own, new staff and people to start to work on the upcoming design, production, and distribution of baseball and other sports cards in the coming years, or do they start to go after and poach as many Topps people as they can, or lastly, do they wait till this new licensing goes through and wipes out Topps' attempt to go public and just swoop in and buy them out for pennies on the dollar (and get all their employees that way)?

[Snowman]

If Fanatics is smart, they'll try to acquire Topps as well. I think a Panini acquisition would be less likely though. Or perhaps they'll just enter into some sort of licensing agreement with all the card manufacturers that effectively just allows them to skim profits by being the middleman to all the players associations. To me, this looks like it's all coming from the players themselves. They see the money being thrown around in the hobby and they want more of it. Every time a modern card sells for a million dollars, they probably complain about not getting a cut of that. Card prices are probably going up. At least for the distributors and card shops that is. No more buying a case from Topps for $4,000 and reselling it for $20,000. They're going to squeeze the middlemen out and take over that role. That's my guess.

[packs]

I think they would have to buy Topps to maximize profits. Topps doesn’t only trade on commodity. Topps trades on brand recognition too. Donruss and Pannini baseball cards aren’t worth anything and it’s not only because they don’t carry logos.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by packs

I think they would have to buy Topps to maximize profits. Topps doesn’t only trade on commodity. Topps trades on brand recognition too. Donruss and Pannini baseball cards aren’t worth anything and it’s not only because they don’t carry logos.

Agreed the Brand Recognition and value of the Topps name and intellectual properties exceeds the others and not even close

[MooseDog]

I would suggest the days of cardboard pictures of players are numbered. The Fanatics market is not for us old guys. Millennials love to gamble in all forms and I see Fantatics getting heavily into the NFT market. The commissions and fees alone would probably dwarf card sales.

[samosa4u]

I can understand the guys on Blowout being upset over this since they like to buy new product every year, but why is this a problem here?

[Schlesinj]

Fanatics/Rubin are logistic experts. Rubin made his money selling a portion of his business to eBay several years ago. I assume they will open up distribution but do it better (and without) the way it has been done for years.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by MooseDog

I would suggest the days of cardboard pictures of players are numbered. The Fanatics market is not for us old guys. Millennials love to gamble in all forms and I see Fantatics getting heavily into the NFT market. The commissions and fees alone would probably dwarf card sales.

That would be a colossal mistake. NFTs are not the future of this hobby. I have no doubt that they will try to push it, but it won't succeed. They'll win over some crypto enthusiasts who just want to invest in what they hope is the next digital frontier, but it's a massive failure to overlook the psychological aspects of what it means to be a collector in the first place. People who collect, which are still the core of this hobby and always will be, have emotional and physical connections to their collections. You can't just separate that aspect and send them all pictures of fake cards instead. The only people who would buy NFTs are people looking to invest who don't take the time to understand the roots of this hobby that actually make the grass grow. It might survive as an adjacent or tangential product, but I just don't see it ever actually taking over as the primary sports collectors' product.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by MooseDog

I would suggest the days of cardboard pictures of players are numbered. The Fanatics market is not for us old guys. Millennials love to gamble in all forms and I see Fantatics getting heavily into the NFT market. The commissions and fees alone would probably dwarf card sales.

They're already there, fanatics owns a majority stake of Candy Digital.

[packs]

Nobody wants baseball card NFTs. Topps Bunt is not a hot product and none of their other digital releases seem to be catching fire.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by packs

Nobody wants baseball card NFTs. Topps Bunt is not a hot product and none of their other digital releases seem to be catching fire.

Since the dawn of time, man has collected random stupid stuff. I can't remember how old it is, but they found a connection of shiny rocks in a human cave in Europe. This is the first evidence of humans hoarding useless junk merely for the pleasure of looking at it. I'll try to find the article..... not exactly the article I was looking for, but close enough. This is about a cool looking rock. The article I remember was about agates/shale/etc.

NFTs are not fulfilling man's material instincts!

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart...cks-180961865/

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[whitehse]

I will admit I am a vintage card guy but still have room for the shiny stuff on occasion. When I heard that Topps was losing it’s license, I do have to say there was a great deal of sadness that came with this news. I was raised on Topps being THE card company because it was the ONLY card company. Even when Fleer and Donruss came along in 1981, I collected those cards but Topps was still the top dog. Sure, being a vintage guy, I love Bowman, had Play Ball and Diamond Star cards in my collection and even added some Fleer to the mix but the affinity was always for the Topps brand. And since we cannot ignore the elephant in the room, Topps almost always had that value above most other brands in the business for the most part.

I like many others here on the Net54 boards am probably a dinosaur in the collecting card business in that I have stuck with my vintage sets and really have no need or desire to dive heavily into anything new. If I was being honest, I just don’t have interest in today’s players and certainly will not be shelling out large amounts of money for cards of guys I just really do not care for. For guys like me, the loss of the Topps license likely will not effect us very much but the reality is that likely Topps exiting the sports card business is much like the loss of a family friend. Someone who has been there one’s whole life and now will be summarily dismissed much like those family friends who have grown old beyond their years and everyone wonders whatever happened to them.

I am going to miss Topps but not for the fact I will no longer be able to purchase memories in packs of cards but for the fact a company that was there for me as a nine year old kid, a company who’s products helped me to learn to read and understand statistics and showed me what my childhood heroes really looked like is being dismissed. Is this Topps fault? Sure, they need to share the blame as they failed to change with the times but the real culprit is what is killing sports in general. The culprit is greed and the need to capitalize on an investment and make money for the stockholders while making the collectors pockets as light as possible. I understand it all but that doesn’t mean I have to agree with this process or be happy with it.

As for me, I am going back to my Sibby Sisti, Oscar Zamora and Fergie Jenkins cards while trying to finish my 1975 and '65 Topps set for the third time.

At least I still have these memories.

[conor912]

NPR called me last night to get my take. We talked for a good 20 minutes, so I was a bit disappointed to see how little made it into the article, but I suppose the laymen just need a bird’s eye view.

https://www.npr.org/2021/08/20/10295...facturer-topps

[Tabe]

FYI, it was just announced that the group buying and taking Topps public has backed out. I would be stunned if this new Fanatics group doesn't now swoop in and buy Topps and their production and thus continuing the Topps name.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Tabe

FYI, it was just announced that the group buying and taking Topps public has backed out. I would be stunned if this new Fanatics group doesn't now swoop in and buy Topps and their production and thus continuing the Topps name.

It does seem like the obvious play here. It's also probably the best outcome for the hobby.

[sbfinley]

Originally Posted by Snowman

That would be a colossal mistake. NFTs are not the future of this hobby. I have no doubt that they will try to push it, but it won't succeed. They'll win over some crypto enthusiasts who just want to invest in what they hope is the next digital frontier, but it's a massive failure to overlook the psychological aspects of what it means to be a collector in the first place. People who collect, which are still the core of this hobby and always will be, have emotional and physical connections to their collections. You can't just separate that aspect and send them all pictures of fake cards instead. The only people who would buy NFTs are people looking to invest who don't take the time to understand the roots of this hobby that actually make the grass grow. It might survive as an adjacent or tangential product, but I just don't see it ever actually taking over as the primary sports collectors' product.

I’m a gigantic crypto enthusiast. I’ve been in ETH since the pre-mine ICO. I’ve given two presentations to my company’s board about allocating a percentage of our treasury or quarterly TCI into crypto. I guided my CFO through her first personal crypto purchase. That being said - NFTs (As they are popular now) are the absolute dumbest thing I have seen and it baffles me. People irrationally dropping $10k on digital 8-bit images then losing almost that much in gas fees because they don’t take five minutes to check network congestion. It’s idiotic. But the again I collect pictures of dudes playing sports so to each their own.

[egri]

Thinking about it a bit more, I guess it was bound to happen sooner or later. Allen & Ginter, the American Tobacco Company, Goudey, Bowman, Leaf and others have all fallen by the wayside for one reason or other, Topps just hung around longer than they did.

[pcelli]

So there you have it , a beginning, a middle and an end..The circle is complete!!

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by egri

Thinking about it a bit more, I guess it was bound to happen sooner or later. Allen & Ginter, the American Tobacco Company, Goudey, Bowman, Leaf and others have all fallen by the wayside for one reason or other, Topps just hung around longer than they did.

Yep.

It's a sad day for Topps and it's own fans, but life goes on.

[bigfanNY]

Topps not dead yet. They have a license for 4 more years and as mentioned above Brand recognition that is through the roof. Just like Bowman and leaf and Donruss too valuable to just fade away. I just hope the competition brings out some great cards.

[Santo10Fan]

Topps claims that it was still in active negotiations within the last six weeks only to have the rug pulled out from underneath it. This one is gonna get messy.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by bigfanNY

Topps not dead yet. They have a license for 4 more years and as mentioned above Brand recognition that is through the roof. Just like Bowman and leaf and Donruss too valuable to just fade away. I just hope the competition brings out some great cards.

Topps has an MLB license for 4 more years but an MLBPA* license for only 2 more. That means 2 years of not being able to use any active players and having to do individual licenses with anybody they do want to use.

With the deal to go public going up in flames, I really see no outcome other than Fanatics buying Topps and continuing the Topps brand. I can't imagine Fanatics would turn down a chance to get Topps at a deep discount and just run cards with the Fanatics brand. Just don't see that happening.

Also, at the end of the day, Topps never had a chance anyway. There's no possible way they could top the licensing deal that the Fanatics group could offer since the leagues and players themselves own the company. They gave themselves the license. Topps can't touch that. No way.

* - what genius at Topps negotiated license deals with MLB and MLBPA that don't end at the same time?

[Mark17]

Just throwing this out there....... is there enough profit for Topps to just issue numerous non-sports sets, like they did in the 1960s (Gilligan's Island, McHale's Navy, The Beatles, The Monkeys, Hogans Heroes, Batman, Combat!) and so on?

Could they come up with something like Pokemon, Garbage Pail Kids, Harry Potter, or whatever, just to produce cards and make some dough?

In other words, can they survive without major league sports?

[brianp-beme]

"Topps to be replaced as the BB Card Manuracturer"

I didn't realize baseball cards could be converted into manure.


Brian (I read the title 7-8 times before noticing the misspelling...congrats on disguising it so well)

[Snowman]

I suspect Topps isn't done yet. I would handicap the odds of them being acquired by Fanatics to be at least somewhat likely. Maybe a 30-40% chance? Just a guess. But that's precisely what Fanatics did with Majestic. They bought the licensing then bought out Majestic and said, "sorry about that license deal we just screwed you out of, please make our clothing now", and they did.

I would also speculate that this didn't come out of left field for Topps. I think they knew it was a strong possibility. The timeline with taking the company public is just way too closely correlated with this Fanatics news. Topps SPAC was literally supposed to vote on it next week before the news broke. It's like they were just trying to pull a fast one and cash out before the bottom fell out so that someone else would be left holding the bag instead of them.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Is there any chance that the timing of all this has repercussions? I don't know a ton about big business and mergers and what is and isn't kosher, but the timing of the Fanatics announcement clearly seems intended to queer the Topps merger deal. If they then pick up Topps at a discount, is that all squeaky clean and just legal corporate raiding at its best?

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Is there any chance that the timing of all this has repercussions? I don't know a ton about big business and mergers and what is and isn't kosher, but the timing of the Fanatics announcement clearly seems intended to queer the Topps merger deal. If they then pick up Topps at a discount, is that all squeaky clean and just legal corporate raiding at its best?

Like you I do not know that the side of the business and anything is possible. But I think with Topps reputation, brand recognition, and great history they will be fine either way. Or perhaps they will be bought out or merger with another company.

But hopefully the competition makes for some new and amazing stuff

[Rookiemonster]

Ok let’s talk in a healthy manner we can all make a list of positives and negatives.


Rich thanks for posting I wanted to yesterday but was afraid of everyone in pre war guys screaming to get off their lawn.

First negative: I was really looking forward to the 80s heritage sets.

First positive: it’s a bigger company and they can really open the retail market for cards to everyone everywhere.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Is there any chance that the timing of all this has repercussions? I don't know a ton about big business and mergers and what is and isn't kosher, but the timing of the Fanatics announcement clearly seems intended to queer the Topps merger deal. If they then pick up Topps at a discount, is that all squeaky clean and just legal corporate raiding at its best?

I'm very ignorant about legal matters such as this, but it seems to me like it wouldn't matter when they made the announcement because regardless of they announced it today or 3 months from now, it would still have the same effect of greatly devaluing Topps. The timing of it affects who might be holding the Topps bag when it happens, but from fanatics perspective, whenever they announce, Topps value plummets and they can probably acquire them for pennies on the dollar. Investing in a company whose entire valuation is tied to a licensing deal seems like a risky investment to me. If they lose that license, they go from hero to zero overnight.

[carlsonjok]

Originally Posted by Rookiemonster

First positive: it’s a bigger company and they can really open the retail market for cards to everyone everywhere.

Counterpoint: with private equity involved and MLB and the MLBPA having an equity stake in the company, my expectation is that they will emphasize the high end of the hobby where the margins are better. I just don't see a lot of easy profit in distributing packs to retail stores for sale to kids.

I hope I am wrong.

[Rookiemonster]

Originally Posted by carlsonjok

Counterpoint: with private equity involved and MLB and the MLBPA having an equity stake in the company, my expectation is that they will emphasize the high end of the hobby where the margins are better. I just don't see a lot of easy profit in distributing packs to retail stores for sale to kids.

I hope I am wrong.

None of us can see the future but it’s certainly a possibility.
High end is its own machine. Lower end packs and other products can make you the same amount of money. They already have retail in most major sports areas.
It won’t hurt them to throw some affordable packs and blasters.

[polakoff]

Lots of sentiment around the Internet about Fanatics buying Topps. Remember that Topps makes most of its money on things that are not baseball cards. They are one of the top (if not the top) non-chocolate checkout candy manufacturers in the country. They have the soccer license as well as maybe the most important non-sports property in Star Wars, plus proprietary things like Garbage Pail Kids. I don’t think Fanatics wants to be in the candy and non-sports card market.

I find it more likely that Fanatics finds a way to license the Topps name. Some kind of deal in 2024-2025 that would allow them to utilize Topps’s MLB contract for logos and team names, and then use Topps’s IP thereafter. Think of it as “Topps x Fanatics” the way Topps does other collaborations. Topps Allen and Ginter by Fanatics, or what have you.

If there’s an acquisition I find it more likely they try to acquire Panini. Fanatics is huge in China, Panini is huge in Europe. They’ve got the globe covered (apologies to Australia and Africa) with that acquisition. Plus Panini has redefined two major sports in the last decade and those brand names like Prizm would be arguably more important to Fanatics than Chrome ever could be.

If they wanted to be really smart about it though they’d acquire Upper Deck which would come at a fraction of the price. That gives them the Michael Jordan exclusive, plus gives them the hockey license, thereby giving them all 4 sports. And in addition to all the Upper Deck brands you also get all the Fleer brands. Nostalgia central. That’s the play Fanatics should be making. They don’t need Topps.

[Directly]

Is the future of sports cards to be sold through Fanatics or someone else going to be digital. I heard we might wear some sort of special glasses and view our collection on the wall. Why print, package, ship cardboard, and basically cut out the middle man, look at the cost saving and profit margins--
This may sound science fiction and far out, but could this possibly be the norm for our future generations of collectors?

[Rookiemonster]

Let’s hope this is the official death of the rookie shield. Ruining front of cards since it’s inception. I never understood why if they were going to put on the card why not put it on the back by the number .(You heard it here first)

[conor912]

Looks like Fanatics just ousted Panini for the NBA, too. Woah.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by conor912

Looks like Fanatics just ousted Panini for the NBA, too. Woah.

Given that the NBAPA has ownership in the new Fanatics company, it was never in doubt that Panini would lose their license for the NBA. They will lose their NFL license, too, since the NFL and NFLPA have ownership in the new company as well.

[conor912]

Does that mean a panini can go back to being a sandwich now?

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by conor912

Does that mean a panini can go back to being a sandwich now?

Unless you care about soccer/futbol.

[judsonhamlin]

As much as this really hits at the nostalgia we feel of opening Topps packs and building Topps sets as kids, I really can’t think of the last ‘base’ set that had a really inspired, unique design. Archives, A&G and Heritage all trade on that nostalgia feel, but probably mean not much at all to anyone under the age of 30. And the whole emerald/refractor/image swap only goes so far and quickly becomes frustrating. I mean if you’re 11 and growing up a fan of Trout, there is no way to ever get all his cards from any one year, much less over a few years. The lottery mentality might be a boon for a narrow and vaguely disturbed subsection of the community but does f all for the kids who might actually want to collect. Maybe a new brand might bring better designs and a simplified base concept while still pumping up the parallels on the higher end stuff which can pull the kids in and then get them to upgrade as they get more interested.