Has the Junk card era ended? If so, when?

[Balticfox]

Has the Junk card era ended? If so, when? And what makes you believe that it has ended?

[Peter_Spaeth]

I would say no. The supply of modern cards, adding up all the issues, is huge. Just to take one random example, an ebay search for 2018 Juan Soto (his rookie year) returns 26,000 plus hits.

[maniac_73]

It's the junk slab era now

[Bigdaddy]

Not by a long shot. Unless today's card is a 'hit', then it is immediately relegated to the junk pile. And even if it's a 'hit' when the pack is opened, many of those will be junk in a short time.

[toppcat]

Originally Posted by maniac_73

It's the junk slab era now

An excellent point.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Never heard of the junk card era. There was a junk wax era. There appears to be a junk slab era, and probably a junk parallel era. But there have always been good cards in all eras.

If you are referring to the junk wax era, yes, it ended long ago. That era was defined by wax where the most expensive card you could pull was a base card with 3 million copies. While there is still a lot of junk in boxes, the inclusion of rare, desirable cards in products, at least leaves open the possibility for something nice in the wax.

[Republicaninmass]

These box breaks don't even SHIP cards unless they are hits. I don't think any collector could have imagined that in 1990. Vast wasteland of modern cards

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

These box breaks don't even SHIP cards unless they are hits. I don't think any collector could have imagined that in 1990. Vast wasteland of modern cards

My favorites are the 1/1s that sell for 4 and 5 figures of players that have no MLB experience. Then sell for $5 or less a couple years later.

[steve B]

I think of it as a transition, from pure junk wax of the late 80's to the early 90's and a bit beyond where there were some pretty nice cards with much more limited production, but a very few great inserts. That eventually led to now, what I sometimes call the lottery era, with overly elaborate base cards that even with lower production aren't really worth much even years later, and a very few very low production inserts that may be worth a lot but only if it's the "right" player.
I'm not sure what's next.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by bnorth

My favorites are the 1/1s that sell for 4 and 5 figures of players that have no MLB experience. Then sell for $5 or less a couple years later.

I love those stories of speculators getting badly burned! The lesson of course is to not buy any new issues until they're at least two years old.

[Tripredacus]

For baseball, since Fanatics took over (so since 2024) we are in the junk era yet again.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

I love those stories of speculators getting badly burned! The lesson of course is to not buy any new issues until they're at least two years old.

I would say more like 8 years, to be safe, going from the date of the first prospects issues.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Never heard of the junk card era. There was a junk wax era.

If you are referring to the junk wax era, yes, it ended long ago. That era was defined by wax where the most expensive card you could pull was a base card with 3 million copies.

I chose my words carefully. Yes, the term "junk wax" is the one most commonly heard. But!!! The last year any cards could be found in traditional wax packs was 1991. And the junk era for cards extended for many more years. Whether five, ten or until the present is the only question.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

I chose my words carefully. Yes, the term "junk wax" is the one most commonly heard. But!!! The last year any cards could be found in traditional wax packs was 1991. And the junk era for cards extended for many more years. Whether five, ten or until the present is the only question.

In that case, my answer is there has never been a junk card era. There have always been great cards to collect in all eras.

Additionally, it is pedantic to refuse to call unopened cards "wax" just because the original source of the name came from a method of sealing the product that is now obsolete. From the first foil wrapper, the hobby has consistently continued to colloquially refer to unopened product as wax. But you do you.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

In that case, my answer is there has never been a junk card era. There have always been great cards to collect in all eras.

Keep in mind that I wasn't the one who invented the term "junk" to refer to these cards. Some fabulous looking cards were released during this era whatever the boundaries. I have over a dozen binders of post-1990 cards myself.

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Additionally, it is pedantic to refuse to call unopened cards "wax" just because the original source of the name came from a method of sealing the product that is now obsolete. From the first foil wrapper, the hobby has consistently continued to colloquially refer to unopened product as wax. But you do you.

I have no problem pleading guilty to being pedantic. I've been that way since high school. But when it comes to pedantry, most participants on this forum would agree that your skills are second to none.

So when, if ever, do you think the junk/junk wax era ended?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

Keep in mind that I wasn't the one who invented the term "junk" to refer to these cards. Some fabulous looking cards were released during this era whatever the boundaries. I have over a dozen binders of post-1990 cards myself.



I have no problem pleading guilty to being pedantic. I've been that way since high school. But when it comes to pedantry, most participants on this forum would agree that your skills are second to none.

So when, if ever, do you think the junk/junk wax era ended?

Let me also be pedantic.

The term "junk" never refered to the cards. It refered to the wax. The cards were always great. It was the cost of a box compared to the value of what could possibly come out of it that made the wax junk.

And while we are defnitely in an era of overpriced wax, where people (gamblers) pay big bucks for a tiny chance at an extremely valuable card and usually end up with a fraction of the cost of the box, it is this remote possibility that distinguishes this era from the junk wax era.

[Zach Wheat]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Never heard of the junk card era. There was a junk wax era. There appears to be a junk slab era, and probably a junk parallel era. But there have always been good cards in all eras.

If you are referring to the junk wax era, yes, it ended long ago. That era was defined by wax where the most expensive card you could pull was a base card with 3 million copies. While there is still a lot of junk in boxes, the inclusion of rare, desirable cards in products, at least leaves open the possibility for something nice in the wax.

I like this definition...the junk parallel era. True.

[KJA]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Never heard of the junk card era. There was a junk wax era. There appears to be a junk slab era, and probably a junk parallel era. But there have always been good cards in all eras.

If you are referring to the junk wax era, yes, it ended long ago. That era was defined by wax where the most expensive card you could pull was a base card with 3 million copies. While there is still a lot of junk in boxes, the inclusion of rare, desirable cards in products, at least leaves open the possibility for something nice in the wax.

Yes on junk parallel, I don't mind gold cards or parallels where I know what kind it is when I see it. Now I pull them and I have to look up what kind it is and most seem to be parallel's for the sake of parallel's. I think there are junk auto's also, sucks when the box hit is an auto of a guy I've never heard. But hey at least I pulled an auto I guess. I remember chasing the auto inserts of the early 90's and never pulled any but at least they were legendary players you had the chance to pull. Also cool inserts, like the Pro Vision insert set, not worth anything now but at least the cards looked cool.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by KJA

Yes on junk parallel, I don't mind gold cards or parallels where I know what kind it is when I see it. Now I pull them and I have to look up what kind it is and most seem to be parallel's for the sake of parallel's. I think there are junk auto's also, sucks when the box hit is an auto of a guy I've never heard. But hey at least I pulled an auto I guess. I remember chasing the auto inserts of the early 90's and never pulled any but at least they were legendary players you had the chance to pull. Also cool inserts, like the Pro Vision insert set, not worth anything now but at least the cards looked cool.

Agreed. It was amazing what happened with autos. In the early 90s, it was massively innovative, and we had rare chases that you had virtually no shot to pull one.



Then, in just a few short years, you had some legends on a short checklist that were much more easily pulled at 1:72 packs in 1995 Upper Deck.



Then in 1996, Donruss/Leaf changed the game by releasing Signature Series where there was one auto per pack. (this one is 1997, since Larkin wasn't in the 1996 set)



Now here we are where every prospect signs literally tens of thousands of cards in their career.

My prediction is that the focus will shift back to the rare inserts with innovative and cool designs like it was in the 90s. Long term, autos will become less desirable, and inserts will be sought after. It has already begun with sets like Home Field Advantage and Hidden Gems, etc... from Topps, and Kaboom and Downtown, etc... from Panini.

[sthoemke]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Agreed. It was amazing what happened with autos. In the early 90s, it was massively innovative, and we had rare chases that you had virtually no shot to pull one.



...

I pulled the Bench/Morgan auto

I still have it, although I have no clue where it is...

[OhioLawyerF5]

I find it fun to track the history of baseball and baseball cards through the lens of my favorite team (and the oldest professional team), the Cincinnati Reds.

Back in 2022 I put together this image using some of my favorite Reds players. It chronicles the history of Topps flagship brand from 1951 through 2022 using base cards of one Reds player (in a Reds uniform) for each year.

[ASF123]

Wow, that image really highlights how similar Topps cards have become in the past 12 years or so.

[ullmandds]

seems to me this era is "junkier" than ever?

[Smanzari]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

seems to me this era is "junkier" than ever?

I agree. Demand is basically non-existent on Products once they hit the 5-8 week mark, unless its one of a small handful of players. If we didn't have "Buy It Now" and had just auctions on eBay overall comps would be no where near where they are for Modern Cards. Modern cards are just like a game of Hot Potato with more steps.

[judsonhamlin]

Originally Posted by ASF123

Wow, that image really highlights how similar Topps cards have become in the past 12 years or so.

Very much so. None of the designs since 2008 stand out and even that year doesn’t jump out as special.

[OhioLawyerF5]

I'm a big fan of 2024, even though it came after that picture.



And it looks good in a parallel, too.

[judsonhamlin]

2024 is decent. Last design that looks good to me is 2006. I respect 07 but don’t love it

[ASF123]

Originally Posted by judsonhamlin

2024 is decent. Last design that looks good to me is 2006. I respect 07 but don’t love it

It’s not that they’re bad designs…it’s that they’re so nondescript. None of them can really be bad or good, because there’s just nothing distinctive that would stand out one way or the other. Plus it seems like they all use the same background-blurring effect.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

And it looks good in a parallel, too.

That card looks sensational! How many are there in that series?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

That card looks sensational! How many are there in that series?

That particular card is the gold logofractor numbered to 50. There are other colors with different serial numbers, though.

The whole rainbow is:

Purple /250
Aqua /199
Blue /150
Green /99
Gold /50
Orange /25
Black /10
Red /5
Rose Gold 1/1

Which is actually a tiny rainbow in today's world.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

That particular card is the gold logofractor numbered to 50. There are other colors with different serial numbers, though.

The whole rainbow is:

Purple /250
Aqua /199
Blue /150
Green /99
Gold /50
Orange /25
Black /10
Red /5
Rose Gold 1/1

Which is actually a tiny rainbow in today's world.

So then I take it that Elly de la Cruz is available in that pose in that rainbow of effects. But is there a whole set, or a certain subset, of other players available that way? And do you have any Cruz cards in those other rainbow colours?

And is this the Aqua Cruz or is it part of a different RayWave Refractor parallel series of effects?

(Not mine.)

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

So then I take it that Elly de la Cruz is available in that pose in that rainbow of effects. But is there a whole set, or a certain subset, of other players available that way? And do you have any Cruz cards in those other rainbow colours?



And is this the Aqua Cruz or is it part of a different RayWave Refractor parallel series of effects?



(Not mine.)

It's complicated. The card you posted is from the regular Topps Chrome set. It is the Aqua Raywave parallel. There are a TON of parallels in that set with lots of colors and patterns. The one I posted is technically from a different product called Topps Chrome Logofractor Edition. All the parallels in Logofractor Edition have that same pattern with the MLB logo.

https://www.baseballcardpedia.com/in...me_Logofractor

https://baseballcardpedia.com/index....4_Topps_Chrome

Here are all the parallels in the regular Topps Chrome release:

Refractors – (1:3 hobby, 1:1 jumbo, 1:1 breaker, 1:4 value, 1:3 monster)
Pink Refractors – (1:4 value)
Prism Refractors – (1:6 hobby, 1:2 jumbo, 1:7 value, 1:7 monster)
RayWave Refractors – (1:9 value, 1:4 monster)
Sepia Refractors – (1:4 value)
X-Fractors – (1:1 monster)
Negative Refractors – (1:89 hobby, 1:27 jumbo, 1:3 breaker, 1:249 value, 1:101 monster)
Magenta Speckle Refractors – /350 (1:102 hobby, 1:31 jumbo, 1:3 breaker, 1:285 value, 1:116 monster)
Purple Speckle Refractors – /299 (1:119 hobby, 1:36 jumbo, 1:3 breaker, 1:334 value, 1:136 monster)
Sonar Purple Refractors – /275 (1:109 value, 1:73 monster)
Purple Refractors – /250 (1:143 hobby, 1:44 jumbo, 1:4 breaker, 1:403 value, 1:164 monster)
Aqua Refractors – /199 (1:179 hobby, 1:55 jumbo, 1:5 breaker, 1:503 value, 1:205 monster)
Aqua Lava Refractors – /199 (1:179 hobby, 1:55 jumbo, 1:5 breaker, 1:503 value, 1:205 monster)
RayWave Aqua Refractors – /199 (1:151 value, 1:101 monster)
Blue Refractors – /150 (1:238 hobby, 1:73 jumbo, 1:6 breaker, 1:669 value, 1:271 monster)
RayWave Blue Refractors – /150 (1:200 value, 1:134 monster)
Sonar Blue Refractors – /125 (1:285 hobby, 1:87 jumbo, 1:7 breaker, 1:804 value, 1:326 monster)
Lightboard Logo – (1:280 value, 1:140 monster)
Green Refractors – /99 (1:361 hobby, 1:110 jumbo, 1:9 breaker, 1:1,016 value, 1:413 monster)
Green Wave Refractors – /99 (1:185 hobby, 1:57 jumbo, 1:62 breaker)
RayWave Green Refractors – /99 (1:304 value, 1:203 monster)
Sonar Green Refractors – /99 (1:361 hobby, 1:110 jumbo, 1:9 breaker, 1:1,016 value, 1:413 monster)
Blue Wave Refractors – /75 (1:245 hobby, 1:76 jumbo, 1:82 breaker)
Gold Refractors – /50 (1:714 hobby, 1:218 jumbo, 1:18 breaker, 1:2,014 value, 1:817 monster)
Gold Wave Refractors – /50 (1:367 hobby, 1:113 jumbo, 1:122 breaker)
RayWave Gold Refractors – /50 (1:601 value, 1:402 monster)
Big Apple Refractors – less than 50 copies each (Fanatics Fest NYC boxes only)
Orange Refractors – /25 (1:388 hobby)
Orange Wave Refractors – /25 (1:733 hobby, 1:226 jumbo, 1:244 breaker)
RayWave Orange Refractors – /25 (1:1,201 value, 1:800 monster)
Black Refractors – /10 (1:1,833 hobby, 1:564 jumbo, 1:626 breaker)
RayWave Black Refractors – /10 (1:3,012 value, 1:2,013 monster)
Frozenfractors – /-5 (1:506 jumbo)
Red Refractors – /5 (1:7,117 hobby, 1:2,163 jumbo, 1:173 breaker, 1:20,184 value, 1:8,336 monster)
Red Wave Refractors – /5 (1:3,657 hobby, 1:1,127 jumbo, 1:1,251 breaker)
RayWave Red Refractors – /5 (1:6,024 value, 1:4,025 monster)
Printing Plates – 1/1 (1:8,896 hobby, 1:2,722 jumbo, 1:218 breaker, 1:25,281 value, 1:10,610 monster; each has Black, Cyan, Magenta and Yellow versions)
Superfractors – 1/1 (1:35,584 hobby, 1:11,011 jumbo, 1:834 breaker, 1:104,587 value, 1:40,062 monster)

As you can see, it gets insane. It's why I said we may be in a junk parallel era. It's why I pick one or two that I like of each player I collect, and that's it.