Heritage prices are revealing of market (already)

[BBB]

Not a huge shock that top condition post war is outrunning prewar.

Though, I'm surprised that a Reggie Jackson RC PSA 9 is currently going for more than a 1915 CJ WaJo PSA 9.

Sure there's a ton of time left on the auction. Still, this seems way out of alignment. Will the Pre war cards never get a bump? Are the names now truly ancient history as opposed to when I was a kid and these were the legendary players of my fathers and grandfathers generation?

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[Steve D]

Hush.....shush.......

We don't need pre-war card prices to go Bat-Shit-Crazy like post-war cards have!




Steve

[Sean]

Originally Posted by Steve D

Hush.....shush.......

We don't need pre-war card prices to go Bat-Shit-Crazy like post-war cards have!




Steve

Yeah, not until I start selling.

[Bram99]

I think the Reggie may just have more chasers right now, but I can't believe that demand is durable. It's about scarcity. The pre-war cards have had a higher percentage of the full total population found, and if great condition, already graded. High sale prices like the Reggie will cause more submissions of the card - there are many more out there than the pre-war cards. More graded Reggie RC 9's will cause the price to go down. Pre-war is the better bet for long-term value in my opinion.

[JustinD]

The post war is in a ridiculous boom right now that will not last IMHO. These have numerous precedents of prior boom and busts, all material things follow these rules.

The buying habits of people are fickle and change with the winds. While I do believe the long term investment (even though it is my preferred collection) is leaning toward poor future values on prewar as the interest in those players will wane as the the baby boom generation thins and post war will stay on more steady ground longer. If you are hoping for a temporary boom to get a good ROI on a prewar collection, there will likely be at least a few in the next 10-15 years before the demand from the current largest contingent of prewar collectors (baby boomers) becomes smaller over time.

My personal beliefs are that the majority of cards and sports collectibles are in a unsustainable boom right now. Once the investors drop out and move to the next fad and it is back to a limited actual collector market, thus bringing supply and demand closer in line prices will drop exponentially. I have slowed my purchases as I strongly believe this. I feel a market correction will be within the next few years and I am young enough to be patient. I would rather pause and increase my purchase power at a lower price point.

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by JustinD

The post war is in a ridiculous boom right now that will not last IMHO. These have numerous precedents of prior boom and busts, all material things follow these rules.

The buying habits of people are fickle and change with the winds. While I do believe the long term investment (even though it is my preferred collection) is leaning toward poor future values on prewar as the interest in those players will wane as the the baby boom generation thins and post war will stay on more steady ground longer. If you are hoping for a temporary boom to get a good ROI on a prewar collection, there will likely be at least a few in the next 10-15 years before the demand from the current largest contingent of prewar collectors (baby boomers) becomes smaller over time.

My personal beliefs are that the majority of cards and sports collectibles are in a unsustainable boom right now. Once the investors drop out and move to the next fad and it is back to a limited actual collector market, thus bringing supply and demand closer in line prices will drop exponentially. I have slowed my purchases as I strongly believe this. I feel a market correction will be within the next few years and I am young enough to be patient. I would rather pause and increase my purchase power at a lower price point.

I think you are half right. I think the CRAZY prices on some post war stuff won't last, but I think the higher prices in general, are caused by the boomers and post boomers getting older and having more disposable income to spend on their idol's cards. I doubt a PSA 9 Rose rookies will stay at $150k (or wtvr) but I think that the prices will stabilize more over time and remain high (as the scarcity of higher grade cards won't increase much, unlike junk era to now, which will push some of the more modern collectors into pre 80's eventually)

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Steve D

Hush.....shush.......

We don't need pre-war card prices to go Bat-Shit-Crazy like post-war cards have!




Steve

So when the Bat-Shit hits the fan, it's time to sell.

Are there any chiropterologists on the Board?

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

So when the Bat-Shit hits the fan, it's time to sell.

Are there any chiropterologists on the Board?

Apparently there are none.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Apparently there are none.

I think it was figurative bat-shit Frank.

[sushihotwings]

I think part of the reason post war cards are outperforming pre war is name recognition. A lot of people prefer to collect players they have seen play or at least are still alive and making appearances here and there generating buzz about their legend and accomplishments. Unfortunately I think pre war collectors are a smaller group and enjoy collecting stuff that is really old and significant to their origins of the sport. The names of the players from 1900 mean absolutely nothing to 99% of people. This reflects somewhat in pricing and demand. I am just starting to get interested in pre war as I get older and enjoy the historical aspects. Most young collectors are more interested in who's hot right now. If you have been dead for a century there is little you can do to get on that hot list🙂

[FourStrikes]

Originally Posted by JustinD

I think it was figurative bat-shit Frank.

many of us- for many reasons - qualify as certifiably bat-shit!...good call, Justin.