Career stats adjusted for military service

[the 'stache]

I've often looked at some of the greats of the game who lost playing time to military service, and wondered what their numbers would have looked like had their careers not been interrupted. Last night, I selected four Hall of Fame players to examine: Ted Williams, Bob Feller, Hank Greenberg and Joe DiMaggio. Using their career numbers, obtained from Baseball Reference, and a spreadsheet I designed in Microsoft Excel, I set out to forecast their career numbers based on their averages immediately before and after their military service.

Of the four players, I must admit that Ted Williams intrigued me the most. He's considered by many (myself included) the best pure hitter to ever play the game. He combined a spectacular natural ability with a tireless work ethic. He studied opposing pitchers, and memorized what they threw in different situations. He took a scientific approach to the art of hitting, perfecting his swing, making sure that his bats were made to his exact specifications. Williams served his country twice, in World War II, and as a naval aviator for the Marines in the Korean War (where he saw combat). I used the two seasons immediately before and after each tour to approximate what his numbers would have been in the time he missed. Of course, there is no way of knowing what he would have done. He could have easily outperformed these numbers. Or, he could have gotten hurt. And there's no telling how long he would have played if he'd not been called to active duty. He might have stopped playing well before 1960. This model assumes constant production.



The next player I examined was Joe DiMaggio. DiMaggio missed 3 full seasons in the prime of his career, between ages 28 and 30. However, the two seasons immediately before and after his service do not come close to meeting his career peaks in performance. It's easy to assume that the numbers he'd have produced for these three years would have been better than the ones I've added. But the baseline increase to his career figures are still quite impressive.



Hank Greenberg was one of the greatest power hitters of his generation. He lost four and a half years of his career, and like DiMaggio, those seasons were in his prime. Greenberg is one of the greatest run producers in the game's history, driving in 1,276 runs in only 1,394 games, meaning he drove in a run in 91% of the games he played. With the addition of these games he missed to military service, he surely would have made the 500 home run club.



Finally, we have Bob Feller, the first Major League baseball player who signed up for military service after Pearl Harbor was bombed. Feller is one of the greatest power pitchers to ever play the game, making his Major League debut as a fireballing 17 year old in 1936. His military service cost Feller 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts. While he made the Hall of Fame, there's no doubt that his career numbers would have put him with the greatest pitchers of all time if he'd had those nearly four years in his prime. His military service interrupted a run of five consecutive seasons with 20 or more wins. He averaged 24.4 wins a season.



There are certainly other players who have lost time to military service. Willie Mays, who was a rookie in 1951, lost more than 250 games to military service. It's quite possible that he would have hit 700 home runs, and driven in over 2,000 runs.

What other players can you think of that had their career numbers diminished by their military service?

[clydepepper]

Bill-

That is fine work. You picked the right four to examine.

I suggest Warren Spahn, whose career was not interrupted in the middle, but just as he got to the Majors. Three full years lost including a Battle of the Bulge Purple Heart.

I may be trickier to predict what he would have done with the lost time.

Again, fascinating work - we appreciate it.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

Bill-

That is fine work. You picked the right four to examine.

I suggest Warren Spahn, whose career was not interrupted in the middle, but just as he got to the Majors. Three full years lost including a Battle of the Bulge Purple Heart.

I may be trickier to predict what he would have done with the lost time.

Again, fascinating work - we appreciate it.

Thank you, Raymond.

Spahn would be very tricky, yet interesting. Could he have picked up 37 wins in those three seasons, and make it to 400? Maybe. He won 20 or more games 13 times, and he was a 20 game winner as early as 1947. If he'd pitched those three years, though, would he have played as long as he did?

[CW]

Interesting analysis!

I'm not sure how much his career was cut short, but how about Mathewson?

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by CW

Interesting analysis!

I'm not sure how much his career was cut short, but how about Mathewson?

Christy Mathewson's career was already in decline when he was traded from the Giants to the Reds (along with fellow future Hall of Famer Edd Roush). He made a commitment to them to manage for three years. He pitched in one game for the Reds in 1916, then retired after the season. He was a full time manager for 1917, and the first 118 games of 1918. Mathewson enlisted late in the fall of 1918. By then he'd retired as a baseball player, so his career numbers were in no way affected by the war.

[almostdone]

Very fascinating Bill. I have looked at this before with Williams but not the others and not to the extent that you did. Thank you.
I know he didn't miss as much playing time in WWII as the others but I have wondered what Stan Musial's final numbers would have been. Maybe in the 500 hr club? Or perhaps even that much closer to 4000 hits, although I think that would be a bigger stretch.
Also I wonder about one of my all time favorites, although not the power hitter like the others, Pee Wee Reese?
Drew

[CW]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Christy Mathewson's career was already in decline when he was traded from the Giants to the Reds (along with fellow future Hall of Famer Edd Roush). He made a commitment to them to manage for three years. He pitched in one game for the Reds in 1916, then retired after the season. He was a full time manager for 1917, and the first 118 games of 1918. Mathewson enlisted late in the fall of 1918. By then he'd retired as a baseball player, so his career numbers were in no way affected by the war.

Ah, gotcha. Very interesting -- will look forward to more analysis.

[71buc]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

Bill-

That is fine work. You picked the right four to examine.

I suggest Warren Spahn, whose career was not interrupted in the middle, but just as he got to the Majors. Three full years lost including a Battle of the Bulge Purple Heart.

I may be trickier to predict what he would have done with the lost time.

Again, fascinating work - we appreciate it.

I have read that Spahn attributed his post war success to his military service. He believed that prior to his service he was too cautious and did not know how to compete. He claimed the military provided him the toughness necessary to compete and helped him get his priorities in life straight. He went as far as to say he doubted he would have stuck in the majors without the years he lost to his military service. His was a different and very refreshing perspective.

[Jim65]

Very interesting reading.

[howard38]

Johnny Mize merits a look. He was nearly as good as Greenberg (he is Greenberg's most comparable player according to Mlb-ref.com) and lost three prime years during the war. He likely would have finished with over 450 HRs and around 1,700 RBIs.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by howard38

Johnny Mize merits a look. He was nearly as good as Greenberg (he is Greenberg's most comparable player according to Mlb-ref.com) and lost three prime years during the war. He likely would have finished with over 450 HRs and around 1,700 RBIs.

It's funny that I didn't catch that Johnny Mize had missed years in his prime, as I was looking at his career stats on Baseball reference about a week ago.

I took Johnny's seasonal averages from 1941 to 1948. Usually I will average based on the two full seasons prior to and after military service, but 1946 was a pitching dominated season. Mize only hit 22 home runs, but league leader Ralph Kiner only had 23. So, while he was outstanding for that season, I felt another season after his service should be included to normalize his power production. Otherwise, Mize would have had seasonal home runs of 16, 26, 22 and 51. I added his 1948 season with 40 home runs to come up with averages that were more representational of Mize's power capabilities.

Mize has always fascinated me. He and Carl Yastrzemski are the only players in Major League history to have three seasons of 40 or more home runs, but then no other seasons with over 30. He never ended a season with between 31 and 39 home runs. But, Mize had prodigious power. He holds the Major League record with six three home run games. That's impressive. And I feel that had he played those three years of his prime, he'd likely have had another season with about 40 home runs, and another two in the mid twenties or slightly higher.

Here are his adjusted career numbers then.

[veleno45]

Awesome stats Bill. I love the topic. I wonder if there were "2nd tier" players that could have made a HOF run if their stats were there those years. A player like Johnny Pesky comes to mind. He lost 3 out of his 1st 4 years due to service, yet led the AL in hits his 1st 3 years playing. If you insert those missing 3 years that is a pretty good resume for a non-power hitter.

[the 'stache]

Ok, so we're looking at:

Musial
Reese
Pesky

Give me some other suggestions, guys, and I'll look them over tonight.

[veleno45]

I think Luke Appling finished his career just over 200 hits short of 3000, yet I think he lost almost 2 years to the war. If your numbers puts him over 3k hits, I think you have to petition for him to be an honorary 3k hit club member.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by veleno45

I think Luke Appling finished his career just over 200 hits short of 3000, yet I think he lost almost 2 years to the war. If your numbers puts him over 3k hits, I think you have to petition for him to be an honorary 3k hit club member.

Chris, there have been a few players, some of the greats of the game, that just missed a big milestone, and I've always wondered why they didn't come back to at least achieve that milestone.

I'd be a team player first, of course. But if I finished a season with 499 home runs, you can bet I'd play one more year.

Sam Rice missed the 3,000 hit club by 13. Sam Crawford by 39. Frank Robinson by 57.

But one of the guys that really killed me was Al Kaline. 399 home runs. Same with Andres Galarraga. Dale Murphy hit 398 bombs.

[the 'stache]

Johnny Pesky's career numbers get quite a nice boost. He was a great player for the Red Sox. His first three seasons he had over 200 hits. Not a lot of power, but the guy could flat out hit. They had a nice core with Williams, Doerr, DiMaggio and Pesky.

[the 'stache]

Chris, assuming Appling played every game in 1945 (the Sox played 149 in total, and Appling missed all but 18), as well as the entire 154 games from the 1944 season, he missed 285 games in total due to service in the military during WW II.

I sampled statistics from the period of 1940 to 1943. During that span, he averaged 150 games per season. I took his 150 game average, and a multiplier of 1.9 to hit 285 games. So, by taking his statistical averages from the 40-43 seasons, and multiplied by a factor of 1.9, I arrived at his projected figures. Yes, he surpassed the 3,000 hit club, and quite easily, I may add.

Here are his career numbers adjusted for military service which cost him 285 games in the Major Leagues:



He's truly one of the best two or three players the White Sox have ever had, and while it's not a shame that he served his country (I think I speak on behalf of everybody reading this thread when I say we greatly appreciate the sacrifices these men made in defense of our freedom), it is too bad that Appling was not allowed his chance at the 3,000 hit club.

He didn't really have any power to speak of, with only 45 career home runs. When you take that into consideration, though, a career OPS that's a hair under .800--as a shortstop in the 30s and 40s--is quite impressive. He was truly a model of consistency. He first hit .300 in what was really his second full season, 1933 (.322). He was 26 years old. He last hit .300 in 1949 at age 42 (.301). He hit .300 fifteen times, winning two batting titles in a career that saw him hit .310. He hit .388 in 1936, which is pretty much unheard of in the modern era, especially for a shortstop. He was the MVP runner up to Lou Gehrig, who hit .354 with 49 HR and 152 RBI. Gehrig got 73 voting points to Appling's 65. And as great as he was offensively, he was incredible defensively, too. He has the lowest career fielding percentage of any player appearing in 1,900 or more games due to his 643 career errors. But his range was spectacular, and he made plays other shortstops couldn't have dreamed of. When he retired, he held the Major League record for double plays by a shortstop, and held the American League record for assists and putouts by a shortstop.

Appling is, in my opinion, one of the best pure hitters of his time.

Originally Posted by veleno45

I think Luke Appling finished his career just over 200 hits short of 3000, yet I think he lost almost 2 years to the war. If your numbers puts him over 3k hits, I think you have to petition for him to be an honorary 3k hit club member.

[veleno45]

Awesome, awesome info Bill. Thanks for taking the time to do that. Since you are vindicating numbers for everyone, is there anything you can do for Shoeless Joe?

[the 'stache]

Willie Mays, as great as he was, as jaw dropping as his career totals are, still missed about 274 games of his career to military service. 274 games early in his career. The 1951 National League Rookie of the Year was meant for greatness. Then he was drafted by the Army, and he missed all but 34 games the next two seasons. The year he came back, he was the National League MVP. He hit .345 with 41 HR and 110 RBI. The next season he hit .319 with 51 HR and 127. Between 1954 and 1964, 10 years, he hit .320 with 382 home runs and 1,088 RBI.

So, imagine that we averaged the earliest years of his career and projected what he would have done in those 274 games.



Mays goes from 660 home runs to 727. Mays' career WAR of 156.2 goes up even more.