Buying Vintage Cards – Buy Now or Buy In 12 Months

[parkplace33]

Over the past year, I have seen a softening in some areas of the vintage card market. I have my eye on a few vintage cards and have a simple question… Do I buy now or wait 12 months and buy then?

Since I know this question will be asked….the cards I want are prewar (and a few postwar) HOFers, mid grade. None are particularly rare and are available at cards shows, auctions, eBay etc.

I have asked a few collectors this question and it’s about a 50/50 split. Some have said the time to buy is now, while others believe the card market will continue to decrease (one said 20 percent on certain cards). What say you?

[uniship]

I say now. Staggering amount of money coming out of modern will make it’s way to vintage. Rare, big name vintage moving upward imo.

[skelly423]

If I had a crystal ball, I'd have a real answer for you. Like all markets, the baseball card market is cyclical and will go up, and will go down. Which direction it's going next is anyone's guess. I have a simple philosophy; if I like a card, and the price is right, I buy it.

[MR RAREBACK]

Wait 12 months,
and ask again

[Snapolit1]

Magic 8 ball says Future Cloudy. Try Again.

[Smarti5051]

My experience is anything I buy will drop in value over the next 12 months, while anything I hold off on buying will be much more expensive in 12 months.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Over the past year, I have seen a softening in some areas of the vintage card market. I have my eye on a few vintage cards and have a simple question… Do I buy now or wait 12 months and buy then?

Since I know this question will be asked….the cards I want are prewar (and a few postwar) HOFers, mid grade. None are particularly rare and are available at cards shows, auctions, eBay etc.

I have asked a few collectors this question and it’s about a 50/50 split. Some have said the time to buy is now, while others believe the card market will continue to decrease (one said 20 percent on certain cards). What say you?

If the bottom falls out of the so-called economy, the cards will as well. Who's going to buy cards when you have to make ends meet. Wait a minute. Hold that thought. I forgot. This is net54.

[mrreality68]

I say watch how the particular card is trending and buy when you feel is appropriate.
Some maybe trending up now and some down now.
Like stocks you cannot always try and predict the value at any moment in time.
Buying as you go both high and low will give you a cost average of your net investment if you are investing.
If you are collecting as a Collector then buying vintage anytime is good because over time it will go up and over longer time it will go even more.
Regardless of what anyone of us says the reality is

If you see a card you like and it is in your budget then buy it and enjoy it

[DeanH3]

A card may not be particularly rare, but it might be tough to find with nice eye appeal qualities like centering, color or registration. If you find one with nice eye appeal, I say buy it. You never know when another will come along.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Smarti5051

My experience is anything I buy will drop in value over the next 12 months, while anything I hold off on buying will be much more expensive in 12 months.

Yep. Heads you win, tails I lose. Seriously, trying to time the market is a fool's errand except perhaps where it's obvious prices have been manipulated or are due to some undeniable extraordinary circumstances.

[Snapolit1]

I wonder if the PSA registry is still capturing the imagination of people like it did in the past. Once guys stop engaging in "collection measuring" contests about who has a top 5 or 10 or 20 registry set, it seems like a lot of cards of less desirable fellows will take a dive. Not saying it's happening or will happen. Not a registry guy and never have been, but it's a weird dynamic that has nouby really skewed the demand curve.

[JollyElm]

It doesn't matter how many Paul Bunyans you bring to the collecting forest, they'll never bring the mighty Mantles, Cobbs, Ruths, Jackies, etc., down, so I wouldn't hesitate in buying (if they're priced right) those types of big names now before they continue to grow higher and higher. The other 'regular' HOFers? That's just a crapshoot.

[packs]

I think if you're talking about buying players like Ruth or Cobb you should buy now. They seem to be bulletproof. I'm sure there was a time when Cobbs first crossed say $200 and collectors thought that was crazy. But it never went back down.

[theshowandme]

Never try to time the market

Keep buying

[bmattioli]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Never try to time the market

Keep buying

Good advise..

[bcbgcbrcb]

I think over the next 12 months, you will do a little better buying now in some cases and a little worse in others, probably evens out in the long run. Either way, you won’t see anything like the difference between buying in early 2021 and today.

[raulus]

Not sure it has to be either/or. Maybe think about buying stuff over time, so you get the benefit of some dollar cost averaging. If the market moves down, then you can capitalize on it because you kept some dry powder. And if prices move up, then you still have the cheaper pieces that you purchased earlier.

[Fred]

If you're buying because you enjoy the hobby and want to complete a set or some other hobby goal, then it shouldn't matter unless you're spending money that was supposed to be for your retirement.

If you're an investor, then shake the Magic 8-Ball or call Ms. Cleo and you'll get no sympathy from a lot of real collectors (that try to enjoy the hobby for the right reasons) if you happen to lose your butt on the "investment".

[Fall1963]

Originally Posted by Smarti5051

My experience is anything I buy will drop in value over the next 12 months, while anything I hold off on buying will be much more expensive in 12 months.

I 2nd that answer.

[Snowman]

I think it's more important to wait for the right copy than it is to attempt to time the market. Eye appeal, eye appeal, eye appeal. Everything else is just noise.

[brianp-beme]

My serious and well intentioned advice is to buy Now and Later, because I believe more people like the fruity flavors of Now and Later over the licorice tang of Good and Plenty.


An additional tip is to buy low (condition) and sell (while) high.


e90joss.jpg


Brian (E90-1 Joss shown is not for sale...whaddya think I am, high?)

[Rhotchkiss]

Well said/done Brian- I think that’s one of your bests.

Regarding the question of the thread, who the hell knows. As many have said, I think it depends on who you are buying, why you are buying, and how long you intend to keep what you are buying. Personally, for the first time in close to decade, this year I have sold more than I bought. But I have been strategic about what I have sold and bought- I have sold off mainly rare t206s and bought almost exclusively Ruth, Wagner, Cobb, Jackson, Young, Matty and things I need for my T3 and 1933 Goudey sets. I don’t know if my timing is good or bad- I will tell you in 2-4 years! However, I am pretty sure that if I can hold for 10-15 years, timing won’t matter- what you buy is more important then when you buy it if you can hold for a long time.

[GeoPoto]

To the extent that the recent explosion in collectables values conformed to classic economic theory regarding inflationary monetary and fiscal policies, it seems wise to assume that the existing deflationary monetary policies combined eventually with improved fiscal discipline, will weigh on collectables values.

[bandrus1]

Buy cards that only come available every 12 months or so and you have to buy them when available

[Johnny630]

I would like to say is I think it’s going to be flat for a good while from these levels or slightly lower…the question to me is when will it go back up again like it did over the past 3 Covid years… I don’t think we’re going to see another jump like we did for a good long while and I accept that and expect as such…no problem.

I think that’s a plus for us Collectors/investors as it gives us more time to be tactful with our long-term buys. The key is buying quality names of mainstream well-known investor/collector angels(Cobb/Ruth/Mantle/Jackie/Mays 33 Goudey T206 CJ’s 50’s Topps ect with centering and color unmatched). Be patient but don’t be stupid if you see it and it’s reasonable and you have time 5+ years buy.

[Republicaninmass]

Likely a crash then plateau a bit higher than it was in 2019. Who knows when, but everything reverts back to the mean.

[bnorth]

Anytime is a good time to buy. The big thing is stay away from the current cards that are being pumped and dumped otherwise known as the hot must have cards.

[RhodeyRhode]

Don't think the big time cards are going down, doesn't matter the market. Maybe you get a weak auction here or there but those are outliers imo. The Wagners, Ruths, Jackson's etc aren't going down other than a random dip at auction here or there.

[Leon]

I agree with all that has been said. When I see a card, that to me really stands out, I try to acquire it. My only issue is having enough money to buy anything decent. I usually settle for leftover crumbs, but it's still fun. As mentioned many times, when I saw this I knew I wanted it, even though I have another nice one. The best of the best (untrimmed with big borders) will always have great demand.

[pcoz]

My advice is when you have the money, BUY! Just like the stock market, which has been up almost 70% of the time over history, why try and time it? I'd guess the vintage card market has been up even more than that. The further we get away from the early 1900's, and the more collectors/investors migrate to vintage in the years to come, the harder the cards you're looking for will pop up. You may get a better price on an item if an auction is diluted with great stuff, but amazing deals in the vintage market are few and far between. Just my thoughts..

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by pcoz

My advice is when you have the money, BUY! Just like the stock market, which has been up almost 70% of the time over history, why try and time it? I'd guess the vintage card market has been up even more than that. The further we get away from the early 1900's, and the more collectors/investors migrate to vintage in the years to come, the harder the cards you're looking for will pop up. You may get a better price on an item if an auction is diluted with great stuff, but amazing deals in the vintage market are few and far between. Just my thoughts..

Pete, totally agree. I believe that those of us in the hobby that are in it for the long game have prospered with pre-war and a statistical analysis will reveal that fact.
Now that Wall Street has accepted that quality sports cards are a personal admitted asset and the massacre of modern basketball still going on (that money has to go somewhere), I would buy now, sit back and relax. But then, I have been at this a long time and sleep pretty well at night.

[JustinD]

Personal opinion is if it is something you can buy at anytime or comes to auction a few times a year...I won't touch it with a ten foot pole at this moment and I have lived with this philosophy since 2020.

On the other hand, if it's something you never see or pops up once a blue moon...then it's always the time to buy or live with regret while you wait the next 10 years for the next one.

I know it's a conflict, but it's been an easy one to live with the past 3 years while I have fun with oddball and error cards as the madness fades away.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Regarding the question of the thread, who the hell knows. As many have said, I think it depends on who you are buying, why you are buying, and how long you intend to keep what you are buying. ... bought almost exclusively Ruth, Wagner, Cobb, Jackson, Young, Matty and things I need for my T3 and 1933 Goudey sets. I don’t know if my timing is good or bad- I will tell you in 2-4 years! However, I am pretty sure that if I can hold for 10-15 years, timing won’t matter- what you buy is more important then when you buy it if you can hold for a long time.

Pretty much my thinking too, except my personal faves are Ruth and Robinson and Pele. And rare cards that pop up or cards for personal idiosyncratic want lists. For example, and because we need a card here:




I always wanted these since I saw them when I was a kid, so when the right ones popped up, I decided to treat myself.

But I digress.

The question is really all about time frames. If you need the money in the short term, this is not the thing to buy into. Lock down an 18 month CD in a high yield savings account. If you have a decade, the good stuff will be there and the rare stuff won't be there, so either way you are likely to be fine. Or just say the hell with it all and roll:

[brian1961]

[QUOTE=JustinD;2380029]

On the other hand, if it's something you never see or pops up once a blue moon...then it's always the time to buy or live with regret while you wait the next 10 years for the next one.

THIS IS VERY GOOD ADVICE. READ THIS STATEMENT OF JUSTIND'S 6 TIMES, TO COMMIT IT TO MEMORY, OR BETTER YET, WRITE IT DOWN ON A PIECE OF CARDBOARD AND PLACE IN VIEW OF YOUR COMPUTER SCREEN.

Personally, I have waited for some things to pop up for years, and years, AND years. When they did, I did not quibble. Then there have been things I never knew existed, or things I never thought would pop up for sheer rarity, and they all of a sudden popped up----I did not let the sun go down on the chance; the item became mine THAT DAY. One of my favorite examples was a 1962 JELL-O Mickey Mantle box, unfolded, in the rare Apple flavor no less. I spotted it in the center of one of Mr. Mint Alan Rosen's All-State display cases at the big Philly show in the fall of 1988, on the first night, WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR. Alan and I discussed it a little bit. SOLD! It came from a find of 85 of those unfolded boxes, and there was only 1 of each player involved. So, this was the ONLY Mickey Mantle. I was a rare, exotic, non-mainstream Mickey Mantle maniac. I bought it, right then, right there, even though I knew nothing about where it came from. My collecting instincts said this must be a rare regional / food item. This time my instincts were right.

Bringing this back to PRE-WAR, if any of you lads come across a 1910 Washington Times Ty Cobb, or a 1920 Headin' Home Babe Ruth, you had better not leave the table it's on, or the computer screen offering it; you best do something if you want it.

Then again, he's looking for mid-grade, so if it's common as dirt, who cares?

The once, or twice, or thrice in a lifetime are in a league of their own. Few talk about them, for fear of creating more competition. If we're dealing with, let's say, common as dirt mid-grade rookie cards, then again, who cares? They'll still be around next year, in 10 years, in 25 years, in 50 years.....

Not all I've written is pertinent, but this is the type of subject that brings up many pieces of advice, prognostications, and memories good, bad, and ugly.

Let's all have a good Thursday. --- Brian Powell

[Fred]

[QUOTE=brian1961;2380045]

Originally Posted by JustinD

On the other hand, if it's something you never see or pops up once a blue moon...then it's always the time to buy or live with regret while you wait the next 10 years for the next one.

THIS IS VERY GOOD ADVICE. READ THIS STATEMENT OF JUSTIND'S 6 TIMES, TO COMMIT IT TO MEMORY, OR BETTER YET, WRITE IT DOWN ON A PIECE OF CARDBOARD AND PLACE IN VIEW OF YOUR COMPUTER SCREEN.

Yup - great advice!