Buying Vintage Cards – Buy Now or Buy In 12 Months

[Smarti5051]

My experience is anything I buy will drop in value over the next 12 months, while anything I hold off on buying will be much more expensive in 12 months.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Smarti5051

My experience is anything I buy will drop in value over the next 12 months, while anything I hold off on buying will be much more expensive in 12 months.

Yep. Heads you win, tails I lose. Seriously, trying to time the market is a fool's errand except perhaps where it's obvious prices have been manipulated or are due to some undeniable extraordinary circumstances.

[Snapolit1]

I wonder if the PSA registry is still capturing the imagination of people like it did in the past. Once guys stop engaging in "collection measuring" contests about who has a top 5 or 10 or 20 registry set, it seems like a lot of cards of less desirable fellows will take a dive. Not saying it's happening or will happen. Not a registry guy and never have been, but it's a weird dynamic that has nouby really skewed the demand curve.

[JollyElm]

It doesn't matter how many Paul Bunyans you bring to the collecting forest, they'll never bring the mighty Mantles, Cobbs, Ruths, Jackies, etc., down, so I wouldn't hesitate in buying (if they're priced right) those types of big names now before they continue to grow higher and higher. The other 'regular' HOFers? That's just a crapshoot.

[packs]

I think if you're talking about buying players like Ruth or Cobb you should buy now. They seem to be bulletproof. I'm sure there was a time when Cobbs first crossed say $200 and collectors thought that was crazy. But it never went back down.

[Fall1963]

Originally Posted by Smarti5051

My experience is anything I buy will drop in value over the next 12 months, while anything I hold off on buying will be much more expensive in 12 months.

I 2nd that answer.

[Snowman]

I think it's more important to wait for the right copy than it is to attempt to time the market. Eye appeal, eye appeal, eye appeal. Everything else is just noise.

[brianp-beme]

My serious and well intentioned advice is to buy Now and Later, because I believe more people like the fruity flavors of Now and Later over the licorice tang of Good and Plenty.


An additional tip is to buy low (condition) and sell (while) high.


e90joss.jpg


Brian (E90-1 Joss shown is not for sale...whaddya think I am, high?)

[Rhotchkiss]

Well said/done Brian- I think that’s one of your bests.

Regarding the question of the thread, who the hell knows. As many have said, I think it depends on who you are buying, why you are buying, and how long you intend to keep what you are buying. Personally, for the first time in close to decade, this year I have sold more than I bought. But I have been strategic about what I have sold and bought- I have sold off mainly rare t206s and bought almost exclusively Ruth, Wagner, Cobb, Jackson, Young, Matty and things I need for my T3 and 1933 Goudey sets. I don’t know if my timing is good or bad- I will tell you in 2-4 years! However, I am pretty sure that if I can hold for 10-15 years, timing won’t matter- what you buy is more important then when you buy it if you can hold for a long time.

[GeoPoto]

To the extent that the recent explosion in collectables values conformed to classic economic theory regarding inflationary monetary and fiscal policies, it seems wise to assume that the existing deflationary monetary policies combined eventually with improved fiscal discipline, will weigh on collectables values.

[bandrus1]

Buy cards that only come available every 12 months or so and you have to buy them when available

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Regarding the question of the thread, who the hell knows. As many have said, I think it depends on who you are buying, why you are buying, and how long you intend to keep what you are buying. ... bought almost exclusively Ruth, Wagner, Cobb, Jackson, Young, Matty and things I need for my T3 and 1933 Goudey sets. I don’t know if my timing is good or bad- I will tell you in 2-4 years! However, I am pretty sure that if I can hold for 10-15 years, timing won’t matter- what you buy is more important then when you buy it if you can hold for a long time.

Pretty much my thinking too, except my personal faves are Ruth and Robinson and Pele. And rare cards that pop up or cards for personal idiosyncratic want lists. For example, and because we need a card here:




I always wanted these since I saw them when I was a kid, so when the right ones popped up, I decided to treat myself.

But I digress.

The question is really all about time frames. If you need the money in the short term, this is not the thing to buy into. Lock down an 18 month CD in a high yield savings account. If you have a decade, the good stuff will be there and the rare stuff won't be there, so either way you are likely to be fine. Or just say the hell with it all and roll: