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  #1  
Old 09-25-2022, 02:11 PM
homerunhitter homerunhitter is offline
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Default How much vintage is out there!?

It seems to me that there is so much topps vintage out there still! Just searching on eBay nets a ton of results for what Iím looking for. With all the stories about moms throwing away their sons vintage collections, there still seems like ALOT of topps vintage out there. In your opinion, how much Topps vintage is out there in the hobby? As there seems no shortage of it at all.
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  #2  
Old 09-25-2022, 02:16 PM
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A ton, they printed a VFT of cards every year then Card Collectors Co got zillions as well.

Last edited by toppcat; 09-25-2022 at 02:17 PM.
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  #3  
Old 09-25-2022, 04:12 PM
raulus raulus is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by homerunhitter View Post
It seems to me that there is so much topps vintage out there still! Just searching on eBay nets a ton of results for what Iím looking for. With all the stories about moms throwing away their sons vintage collections, there still seems like ALOT of topps vintage out there. In your opinion, how much Topps vintage is out there in the hobby? As there seems no shortage of it at all.
How vintage is vintage? Like 1950s to 1970s? Do you include the 80s and 90s?
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  #4  
Old 09-25-2022, 04:20 PM
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All generations seem to have heavy stock of vintage look at the 1933 Goudey cards one of the most popular sets and seems like endless supplies even the 4 Ruth cards from that set has a lot of population of each. Yet demand on the vintage seems to also be on the rise thus driving demand on that supply and thus prices keep going up
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  #5  
Old 09-25-2022, 04:28 PM
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Was speaking with someone on this topic recently, and I suggest this as a factor. The big boom of buying baseball cards started in the '50s. So, if a kid was born in '45, the entire decade of the '50s would have been the sweet spot for collecting for that kid. My point is that that kid born in '45 is now 77 years old, and that generation is going to be declining in numbers over the coming years. Perhaps there are a lot of stashes and collections out there that will see the light of day again due to the passing of those years. Not rocket science, just a sad fact.
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  #6  
Old 09-25-2022, 08:51 PM
isiahfan isiahfan is online now
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Does Topps have a listing somewhere of their production for each year (not including Bowman) from 1952 on? I would think this would not be in their best interest...but also think someone....somewhere ....has this info and leaked it...but for every good leak...probably 10 false leaks to throw us off the scent.
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  #7  
Old 09-25-2022, 09:02 PM
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I remember in the 80s everyone thinking there was so much 60s and 70s stuff it would never be worth anything.
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  #8  
Old 09-25-2022, 09:45 PM
G1911 G1911 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by isiahfan View Post
Does Topps have a listing somewhere of their production for each year (not including Bowman) from 1952 on? I would think this would not be in their best interest...but also think someone....somewhere ....has this info and leaked it...but for every good leak...probably 10 false leaks to throw us off the scent.
It doesnít exist, as far as Iím aware. For modern sets we can get pretty close to the figure, because of the pack odds for numbered inserts. They never come out perfect, and for sets with a retail component you have to do some extra extrapolation, but we can get pretty close to whatever the true exact number is. Iíve done this a few times.

Production is close double what it was a couple years ago.
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  #9  
Old 09-26-2022, 10:04 AM
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Topps and Fleer were involved in some FTC proceedings in the 1960s involving Topps exclusive contacts to distribute player likenesses with confections or gum. The contracts did not preclude cards sold by others without candy or gum, or with other items ( like the 60 Leaf marbles or 63 Fleer cookies)

In those reported FTC proceedings there are production and sales figures for certain Topps and Fleer sets. (The 63 Fleer set had very poor sales)

I used to have cites to those cases but can’t find them at the moment. A search for Topps Fleer FTC Complaints would probably turn them up

Dave Hornish would be the best source for what other numbers from Topps may be available, but agree with G that apparently not much

Last edited by ALR-bishop; 09-26-2022 at 10:06 AM.
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  #10  
Old 09-26-2022, 11:52 AM
wdwfan wdwfan is offline
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I was just told recently that the 1970s wouldn't even be worth anything. It's a crack addicts fix for vintage is what the guy told me meaning it's a cheaper option for someone wanting to get the vintage fix.

And to a point, it's true. I mean, you can get decent 1974 and 1975 commons for 10-20 cents apiece online. It's really sad to be honest. The stars go for more, sure. But the commons, not so muich.

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Originally Posted by bnorth View Post
I remember in the 80s everyone thinking there was so much 60s and 70s stuff it would never be worth anything.
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  #11  
Old 09-26-2022, 01:37 PM
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This won't answer OP's question but has some great info in it. See particularly around 806. But fascinating stuff throughout

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrF...pXBriKINyZJgw-

But....


https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=Awrg...E76S._Enoaeso-
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  #12  
Old 09-26-2022, 02:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ALR-bishop View Post
Topps and Fleer were involved in some FTC proceedings in the 1960s involving Topps exclusive contacts to distribute player likenesses with confections or gum. The contracts did not preclude cards sold by others without candy or gum, or with other items ( like the 60 Leaf marbles or 63 Fleer cookies)

In those reported FTC proceedings there are production and sales figures for certain Topps and Fleer sets. (The 63 Fleer set had very poor sales)

I used to have cites to those cases but can’t find them at the moment. A search for Topps Fleer FTC Complaints would probably turn them up

Dave Hornish would be the best source for what other numbers from Topps may be available, but agree with G that apparently not much
From the late 50's through the mid-70's Topps would state in various articles/interviews, etc., that 250,000 of each baseball card was produced. As for the accuracy of that, I think they just repeated the same press release or comment for 15 years. It may also just have referred to packs sold in stores, or, it was a made up figure.

I've tried to suss out production for a few sets but it's an inexact science and compounded (confounded) by Card Collectors Company getting what I estimate to be as much as 3-5% of the annual print run directly from Topps.

So with cards issued series by series, the 250K figure is meaningless unless it's an average. And if it's an average it's still mostly meaningless as we don't know comparative series amounts.

Topps also hit peak baseball card production (for the pre-1981 days) in 1959 IIRC which makes sense as I think the number of children as a % of overall population in the US peaked in 1959. Baby boom indeed!

Personally, I think they were producing more cards than they ever let on. This links to an estimate I did for 1952 Baseball production and also shows the FTC info Al references. I think they were making more than 250,000 of each lower series card in 1952 alone and they sold more than that from 1953-55 and then once 1956 rolled around they vastly increased their output. I doubt the true production figures will never be known until the time that the MLBPA got Marvin Miller involved (1968-69).

https://www.thetoppsarchives.com/202...bers-game.html

Last edited by toppcat; 09-26-2022 at 02:26 PM.
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  #13  
Old 09-26-2022, 03:23 PM
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For however much you think, there's more. You never know what someone has sitting in their attic, or is in an old box that was passed down from one family to the next.
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  #14  
Old 09-27-2022, 06:30 AM
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Id think during 60s/ early 70s... production was closer to one million of each card printed..... lots of city's in each state..lots of stores in each city
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  #15  
Old 09-27-2022, 07:13 AM
mortimer brewster mortimer brewster is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ALBB View Post
Id think during 60s/ early 70s... production was closer to one million of each card printed..... lots of city's in each state..lots of stores in each city
I believe this is true. Sy Berger the the TOPPS baseball guy stated in a book I have from 1976 that Topps the previous year sold 500 million baseball cards. There were 660 cards in the set that year. Probably more were printed due to product remaining unopened (are there still some in the Fritch warehouse? LOL).

Also, there will always be a large supply of vintage readily available (lets call vintage pre 1980). Why?, because individuals are constantly liquidating their collections either because they lost interest or they need the cash or worse family inherited cards after death and they just want to get rid of them.

Many of the vintage cards we see for sale have been sold over and over again.
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  #16  
Old 09-27-2022, 09:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toppcat View Post
From the late 50's through the mid-70's Topps would state in various articles/interviews, etc., that 250,000 of each baseball card was produced. As for the accuracy of that, I think they just repeated the same press release or comment for 15 years. It may also just have referred to packs sold in stores, or, it was a made up figure.

I've tried to suss out production for a few sets but it's an inexact science and compounded (confounded) by Card Collectors Company getting what I estimate to be as much as 3-5% of the annual print run directly from Topps.

So with cards issued series by series, the 250K figure is meaningless unless it's an average. And if it's an average it's still mostly meaningless as we don't know comparative series amounts.

Topps also hit peak baseball card production (for the pre-1981 days) in 1959 IIRC which makes sense as I think the number of children as a % of overall population in the US peaked in 1959. Baby boom indeed!

Personally, I think they were producing more cards than they ever let on. This links to an estimate I did for 1952 Baseball production and also shows the FTC info Al references. I think they were making more than 250,000 of each lower series card in 1952 alone and they sold more than that from 1953-55 and then once 1956 rolled around they vastly increased their output. I doubt the true production figures will never be known until the time that the MLBPA got Marvin Miller involved (1968-69).

https://www.thetoppsarchives.com/202...bers-game.html
I think the expansion of baseball west also inflated those numbers. I grew up in the Los Angeles area. When my brother and I were buying collections in the late 60s-early 70s, we got lots of cards from 1958-1968, but few from 1951-1957. I don't think Topps shipped much west before 1958. With the Dodgers and Giants in California, that opened up a large market for Topps.
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  #17  
Old 09-27-2022, 09:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rats60 View Post
I think the expansion of baseball west also inflated those numbers. I grew up in the Los Angeles area. When my brother and I were buying collections in the late 60s-early 70s, we got lots of cards from 1958-1968, but few from 1951-1957. I don't think Topps shipped much west before 1958. With the Dodgers and Giants in California, that opened up a large market for Topps.
Yes, they did distribute in the west but much more starting in 1958. California certainly got 1952 highs, but it seems not until 1953!
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  #18  
Old 09-27-2022, 11:58 AM
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Good discussion.

The question for me with postwar vintage goes back to the argument that many over on the main page make - and justifiably, that there was just so much less stuff made in the prewar days, and indeed even for Goudey and T206 and other prewar flagship sets - the pop counts are generally way less than what you find with postwar Topps and Bowman. This argument has been used for years to justify true investment pieces being thought of more as prewar and less postwar.

While I can see this logic, I think if nothing else the hobby boom / bubble of 2020-21 also proved that things like scarcity and pop count don't necessarily matter at least in the short term - when we are talking about key postwar cards of marquee HOF'ers and superstars. In other words, I don't think that anyone here expects there to be a time when nice Mickey Mantle base cards are not prime investment objects - no matter how many of them were or were not made.

The trend here along these lines for the future of postwar singles is just intriguing to me.
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  #19  
Old 09-27-2022, 12:45 PM
steve B steve B is offline
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There are very certain things that affected both production figures and survival for almost anything made pre WWII compared to postwar.

The depression would have lowered production, and at least in cards there was some competition that spread the buying dollars out over different companies. That would have held for most of the 1930's.

At the time as well, there were scrap paper dealers that would buy accumulations of anything paper. (Actually there were scrappers for very nearly everything) The opportunity to sell whatever "junk" paper items were around the house would have been very attractive especially at the worst of times.


The with WWII we had paper drives, metal drives, etc. A big portion of what didn't get scrapped in the 30's went in the mid 40's.


Afterwards? We had a few decades of general prosperity, ups and downs, but seldom bad enough that digging those old cards out of an attic would have been a priority. Plus the collecting/hoarding attitude leftover from the depression leading to people saving stuff for a "rainy day" that rarely came.
Stuff might have gotten tossed in a cleaning frenzy, but more often it was saved. Oddly, even when being tossed some stuff might get saved. Like a kids box of cards being thrown out or given away but their favorite players kept. (Even into the 80's, I bought two small collections being sold by the kids parent, each held back the kids favorite players. )
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  #20  
Old 09-27-2022, 03:03 PM
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I think that there is far, far more "vintage" out there than anyone suspects. Probably more 1950's stuff than people think, but definitely more 1960's. There is no substantial shortage of Topps 1960's products, and absolutely no shortage of 1970's products. The really interesting thing to watch will be how bulk, low to mid-range cards fare in the coming decades. There will always be some completionists, but they are increasingly the exception. More and more people seem to be interested in projects (like team projects, or player projects, or all star game projects) than they are in just an old fashioned "complete set" of given years. There is certainly still a market for 1960's commons, but how long will that last? At some point, the sheer challenge of storing tens or hundreds of thousands of commons simply for others to use as set fillers becomes cost prohibitive. I also think that people just won't care as much. There will always be a market for Mantle and Mays and Aaron etc., but how long will there be a substantial market for, say, bulk 1964 Topps commons? I think that era is drawing to a close, generally speaking. At some point, I just wonder if even 1960's and 1970's commons are tossed as more trouble than they are worth.
Just an interesting thing to ponder in the coming decades.
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  #21  
Old 09-27-2022, 04:21 PM
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I'm 60. I have all my childhood BB cards (of course), and have added to them to complete sets from 67-79. A lot of my friends, also about 60 yrs old, still have cards from their youth. They are not collectors but big on sports and never threw them away. I think there are a lot of people like that.
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  #22  
Old 09-27-2022, 04:48 PM
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Coincidentally I got a call today from a collector I know who is in his late 70s and wants to liquidate his card collection. He has been collecting for decades but decided that he wanted to start the process of winding down for his heirs. He likes the memorabilia he's collected way more than the cards, so he is starting with the cards. I hope to close a deal in the next month or so.
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Last edited by Exhibitman; 09-27-2022 at 04:49 PM.
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  #23  
Old 09-29-2022, 12:36 AM
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Found this old thread.

https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=281357

Some good info.
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