How much vintage is out there!?

isiahfan · #1 09-25-2022, 08:51 PM

Does Topps have a listing somewhere of their production for each year (not including Bowman) from 1952 on? I would think this would not be in their best interest...but also think someone....somewhere ....has this info and leaked it...but for every good leak...probably 10 false leaks to throw us off the scent.

bnorth · #2 09-25-2022, 09:02 PM

I remember in the 80s everyone thinking there was so much 60s and 70s stuff it would never be worth anything.

wdwfan · #3 09-26-2022, 11:52 AM

I was just told recently that the 1970s wouldn't even be worth anything. It's a crack addicts fix for vintage is what the guy told me meaning it's a cheaper option for someone wanting to get the vintage fix.

And to a point, it's true. I mean, you can get decent 1974 and 1975 commons for 10-20 cents apiece online. It's really sad to be honest. The stars go for more, sure. But the commons, not so muich.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bnorth

I remember in the 80s everyone thinking there was so much 60s and 70s stuff it would never be worth anything.

ALR-bishop · #4 09-26-2022, 01:37 PM

This won't answer OP's question but has some great info in it. See particularly around 806. But fascinating stuff throughout

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrF...pXBriKINyZJgw-

But....

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=Awrg...E76S._Enoaeso-

G1911 · #5 09-25-2022, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by isiahfan

Does Topps have a listing somewhere of their production for each year (not including Bowman) from 1952 on? I would think this would not be in their best interest...but also think someone....somewhere ....has this info and leaked it...but for every good leak...probably 10 false leaks to throw us off the scent.

It doesn�t exist, as far as I�m aware. For modern sets we can get pretty close to the figure, because of the pack odds for numbered inserts. They never come out perfect, and for sets with a retail component you have to do some extra extrapolation, but we can get pretty close to whatever the true exact number is. I�ve done this a few times.

Production is close double what it was a couple years ago.

ALR-bishop · #6 09-26-2022, 10:04 AM

Topps and Fleer were involved in some FTC proceedings in the 1960s involving Topps exclusive contacts to distribute player likenesses with confections or gum. The contracts did not preclude cards sold by others without candy or gum, or with other items ( like the 60 Leaf marbles or 63 Fleer cookies)

In those reported FTC proceedings there are production and sales figures for certain Topps and Fleer sets. (The 63 Fleer set had very poor sales)

I used to have cites to those cases but can’t find them at the moment. A search for Topps Fleer FTC Complaints would probably turn them up

Dave Hornish would be the best source for what other numbers from Topps may be available, but agree with G that apparently not much

toppcat · #7 09-26-2022, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

Topps and Fleer were involved in some FTC proceedings in the 1960s involving Topps exclusive contacts to distribute player likenesses with confections or gum. The contracts did not preclude cards sold by others without candy or gum, or with other items ( like the 60 Leaf marbles or 63 Fleer cookies)

In those reported FTC proceedings there are production and sales figures for certain Topps and Fleer sets. (The 63 Fleer set had very poor sales)

I used to have cites to those cases but can’t find them at the moment. A search for Topps Fleer FTC Complaints would probably turn them up

Dave Hornish would be the best source for what other numbers from Topps may be available, but agree with G that apparently not much

From the late 50's through the mid-70's Topps would state in various articles/interviews, etc., that 250,000 of each baseball card was produced. As for the accuracy of that, I think they just repeated the same press release or comment for 15 years. It may also just have referred to packs sold in stores, or, it was a made up figure.

I've tried to suss out production for a few sets but it's an inexact science and compounded (confounded) by Card Collectors Company getting what I estimate to be as much as 3-5% of the annual print run directly from Topps.

So with cards issued series by series, the 250K figure is meaningless unless it's an average. And if it's an average it's still mostly meaningless as we don't know comparative series amounts.

Topps also hit peak baseball card production (for the pre-1981 days) in 1959 IIRC which makes sense as I think the number of children as a % of overall population in the US peaked in 1959. Baby boom indeed!

Personally, I think they were producing more cards than they ever let on. This links to an estimate I did for 1952 Baseball production and also shows the FTC info Al references. I think they were making more than 250,000 of each lower series card in 1952 alone and they sold more than that from 1953-55 and then once 1956 rolled around they vastly increased their output. I doubt the true production figures will never be known until the time that the MLBPA got Marvin Miller involved (1968-69).

https://www.thetoppsarchives.com/202...bers-game.html

rats60 · #8 09-27-2022, 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toppcat

From the late 50's through the mid-70's Topps would state in various articles/interviews, etc., that 250,000 of each baseball card was produced. As for the accuracy of that, I think they just repeated the same press release or comment for 15 years. It may also just have referred to packs sold in stores, or, it was a made up figure.

I've tried to suss out production for a few sets but it's an inexact science and compounded (confounded) by Card Collectors Company getting what I estimate to be as much as 3-5% of the annual print run directly from Topps.

So with cards issued series by series, the 250K figure is meaningless unless it's an average. And if it's an average it's still mostly meaningless as we don't know comparative series amounts.

Topps also hit peak baseball card production (for the pre-1981 days) in 1959 IIRC which makes sense as I think the number of children as a % of overall population in the US peaked in 1959. Baby boom indeed!

Personally, I think they were producing more cards than they ever let on. This links to an estimate I did for 1952 Baseball production and also shows the FTC info Al references. I think they were making more than 250,000 of each lower series card in 1952 alone and they sold more than that from 1953-55 and then once 1956 rolled around they vastly increased their output. I doubt the true production figures will never be known until the time that the MLBPA got Marvin Miller involved (1968-69).

https://www.thetoppsarchives.com/202...bers-game.html

I think the expansion of baseball west also inflated those numbers. I grew up in the Los Angeles area. When my brother and I were buying collections in the late 60s-early 70s, we got lots of cards from 1958-1968, but few from 1951-1957. I don't think Topps shipped much west before 1958. With the Dodgers and Giants in California, that opened up a large market for Topps.

toppcat · #9 09-27-2022, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rats60

I think the expansion of baseball west also inflated those numbers. I grew up in the Los Angeles area. When my brother and I were buying collections in the late 60s-early 70s, we got lots of cards from 1958-1968, but few from 1951-1957. I don't think Topps shipped much west before 1958. With the Dodgers and Giants in California, that opened up a large market for Topps.

Yes, they did distribute in the west but much more starting in 1958. California certainly got 1952 highs, but it seems not until 1953!

jchcollins · #10 09-27-2022, 11:58 AM

Good discussion.

The question for me with postwar vintage goes back to the argument that many over on the main page make - and justifiably, that there was just so much less stuff made in the prewar days, and indeed even for Goudey and T206 and other prewar flagship sets - the pop counts are generally way less than what you find with postwar Topps and Bowman. This argument has been used for years to justify true investment pieces being thought of more as prewar and less postwar.

While I can see this logic, I think if nothing else the hobby boom / bubble of 2020-21 also proved that things like scarcity and pop count don't necessarily matter at least in the short term - when we are talking about key postwar cards of marquee HOF'ers and superstars. In other words, I don't think that anyone here expects there to be a time when nice Mickey Mantle base cards are not prime investment objects - no matter how many of them were or were not made.

The trend here along these lines for the future of postwar singles is just intriguing to me.

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Fs-cool vintage Bill Dickey lot. Vintage photos plus business card	daves_resale_shop	Baseball Memorabilia B/S/T	2	11-07-2020 02:41 AM
Vintage topps poster football lot +mickey mouse vintage ended	rjackson44	Live Auctions - Only 2-3 open, per member, at once.	2	07-07-2017 08:34 AM
Vintage W514, W516 and T206 Black Sox + other vintage bb cards on ebay	brianp-beme	Ebay, Auction and other Venues Announcement- B/S/T	0	03-18-2017 03:26 PM
vintage baseball hofers and vintage hockey with 69 namath ends this tuesday 10 pm	rjackson44	Live Auctions - Only 2-3 open, per member, at once.	5	05-30-2012 05:02 AM
beantown find, cool vintage boxing, lots of misc other vintage ending soon	uniship	Ebay, Auction and other Venues Announcement- B/S/T	0	07-06-2011 09:50 AM