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#401
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I am by far not a data scientist, but I would think it would be in the best interest of the bidder on the whole set to have the individual lots stay as low as possible.
I think both sides should be allowed to increase their own bid during extended bidding.
This gives the advantage to the bidder on the full set as their bid increase can guarantee high bid, however that increase is a much larger amount than what each individual bidder would have to come up with.
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T206 gallery Last edited by atx840; 10-04-2023 at 10:42 AM. |
#402
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I'm not a data scientist either but it seems counterintuitive to me that the best strategy is to try to win 12 lots rather than trying to win one.
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Net 54-- the discussion board where people resent discussions. ![]() My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ |
#403
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* - Cannot raise your own bid if you are already high bidder - Each of the 13 lots end individually - winner of 12 cards based on higher closing price of individual lots vs set.
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Collection on Flickr: https://www.flickr.com/photos/139478047@N03/albums Last edited by tiger8mush; 10-04-2023 at 11:17 AM. |
#404
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I feel fairly certain that one call to HA would have allowed a high aggregate bidder to raise his own bid if he was locked out by the system.
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#405
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...but after reading this thread for the past few days, I kinda sorta want to be a data scientist!? haha Great read and I hadn't really had anything to add to the discussion (and still don't except to joke as I just did). So I lurked..... Sorry it worked out the way it did for Powell! If you're still reading, Powell, I do have a few cards from your t206 set that was at the DIA in my set now. They're noted so in 20-30 years when it's time for me to sell it, I can let the buyer know where it came from before me. Great knowing a small part of my t206 set came from yours! Troy Rambo |
#406
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Sad how this worked out, but very classy by everyone on here. I think letting the results stand was probably the only real choice, but how sad for Powell as he did nothing wrong, and in good faith thought he was winning.
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#407
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#408
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Maybe I’m missing something simple here and it could be because I generally don’t buy a lot in auctions like this.
If there was one auction for the entire lot and 12 individual auctions for the cards there has to be an ending time, right? If there is an extension of the ending time due to bids coming in in a certain timeframe then there is some point where bids stop coming in and the extended time stops right? So when the extended time for the set and the extended time for each of the 12 lots finally stops, which ever amount is higher, the set bid or the individual lot bids, that’s who should get the winnings. If their system sent Powell a message telling him that he won, one would naturally assume that the time had elapsed on the set bid extended time, and the individual lot extended time and their system then determined him to be the winner. If they told him he won then he won and should get the entire set. Last edited by Vintagedeputy; 10-04-2023 at 12:53 PM. |
#409
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Lots in HA do not end at a specific time but rather after a certain period (30 min I think here) of inactivity on that lot.
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Net 54-- the discussion board where people resent discussions. ![]() My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-04-2023 at 12:56 PM. |
#410
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My point is the same. There is some point in time that the bidding time has ended. At that point the system has to look at the bids and determine the winner. If their system sent Powell an email or a message or some kind of electronic signal that he won the set then his set bid must have been more than the calculated bids of all 12 cards individually. The set is his.
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#411
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Are you deliberately trying to restart this discussion at the beginning? Because I think about 50 people (including Powell himself) made this exact argument about 6 pages ago. And we’ve spent the last 300 posts picking that argument up and examining it from most every side. But maybe you skipped over that discussion?
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#412
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Anyhow, it's all moot now.
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Net 54-- the discussion board where people resent discussions. ![]() My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-04-2023 at 05:14 PM. |
#413
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Honestly, it's a non optional strategy for the auction house to run it this way. It almost ensures the hammer price is less than if it had been individual lots only. Especially for something easily trackable like a set of 12 cards.
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If it's not perfectly centered, I probably don't want it. |
#414
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Net 54-- the discussion board where people resent discussions. ![]() My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-04-2023 at 08:28 PM. |
#415
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To those of you who keep pointing out the verbiage of the auction, this seems to be what you're not getting. Yes Powell knew there was a chance the individual lots could be the winner, but he did NOT know he wouldn't be allowed to compete with those bidders.
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Check out https://www.thecollectorconnection.com Always looking for consignments 717.327.8915 We sell your less expensive pre-war cards individually instead of in bulk lots to make YOU the most money possible! and Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thecollectorconnectionauctions |
#416
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Bidding on the set only gives you the opportunity to win the set for less than you might otherwise have to pay were you to bid on all lots, but it also places you at risk of losing altogether since in this format, you get shut out without another set bidder to compete against. So it is optimal in the sense that it is the most likely route to the cheapest win, but it is non optimal if the goal is to guarantee a win, which it cannot do. The only way to guarantee a win is to bid on all lots on both sides like playing a game of Whack-a-Mole.
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If it's not perfectly centered, I probably don't want it. |
#417
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#418
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#419
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__________________
Check out https://www.thecollectorconnection.com Always looking for consignments 717.327.8915 We sell your less expensive pre-war cards individually instead of in bulk lots to make YOU the most money possible! and Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thecollectorconnectionauctions |
#420
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[QUOTE=Snowman;2378396]Bidding on the set only gives you the opportunity to win the set for less than you might otherwise have to pay were you to bid on all lots,
Explain to me how this is true? I must not be understanding something. The set price cannot win if it’s less than aggregate of individual lots, so how could you win the set lot at a price lower than you’d could win the summation of each individual lot? Based on how this auction was run, I have no idea on the purpose of the set lot ever being offered. What was the purpose? |
#421
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#422
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In practice, it's more a convenience to set bidders than it is a bid maximization tool for the consigners, at least with a set this small where bidding both sides is easy to manage. If it were 1952 Topps, then ensuring you are the high bidder on each individual lot is much more challenging, and would result in most set bidders not wanting to bid that way. So offering both makes some sense there because it's very unlikely you're getting bidders to try to win every single lot otherwise. But in that case, you'd definitely want to allow set bidders to outbid the aggregate singles lots even if there is only one set bidder remaining. This allowance would make the "bid both sides" strategy pointless, and should have been implemented in this auction. But it wasn't. Hence the need to bid both sides.
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If it's not perfectly centered, I probably don't want it. |
#423
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Because the Heritage rep was operating under the false assumption that it would yield the maximum amount for the consigner, which would only be true if the bidding pool for both sides consisted of truly independent buyers. But they're not. Every set bidder would have bid on all individual lots had the set lot not been an option. It was an error on their part, and they likely still don't even know it. And they also probably still believe it netted the seller the most money, and they'll probably do it again next time.
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If it's not perfectly centered, I probably don't want it. |
#424
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Yep, this is the key. All lots should remain open together until there is no more bidding on any of the lots. And the aggregate of the individual bid amounts must act as a proxy bid that the high bidder from the set lot can bid against at all times. Without these two rules in place, the dualing auctions format fails to achieve its goal.
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If it's not perfectly centered, I probably don't want it. |
#425
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#426
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[QUOTE=mordecaibrown;2378408]
Quote:
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If it's not perfectly centered, I probably don't want it. Last edited by Snowman; 10-04-2023 at 10:37 PM. |
#427
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No. They're idiots.
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If it's not perfectly centered, I probably don't want it. |
#428
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To go further, besides the advantage offering the set as an individual lot offers to a bidder such as me, it has no down-side to the consigner. It brings more bidders in (in this example, me) thus creating the possibility for the aggregate of the 12 cards to be higher than it would otherwise be. And if done properly, no bidder on an individual card would run out of competition because once he saw that the set price exceeded the total of the individual cards, the effect was he had been outbid on that card and would have known he had to raise his bid. And that is exactly what we saw here. Powell stated that if allowed to, he would have raised his bid, and depending on how high he was willing to go, could have raised the set price to a level that exceeded what the individual cards ended up selling for, thereby netting more for the consigner. And if the cycle repeated itself, more money would flow to the consigner. |
#429
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Most of the focus has been on the full set lot closing so Powell couldn't raise his bid on it once the total of the individual lots went above it, but even if the lot stayed open, he may not have been able to raise his bid because he was bidding against himself.
Wouldn't the same thing have happened with the individual lots? If the high bid for the total set lot had been higher then the combined total of the individual lots, if someone was the high bidder on one of the individual lots and wanted to increase their bid so the individual lots total was higher, they probably wouldn't have been able to either because they would also be bidding against themselves. I've never bid in auctions like this but several have commented about other AHs running similar types of auctions. Apparently, those have had all the lots linked together to show whether the set or the individual lots were ahead and everything stayed open until none of the lots had bids for a period of time, but how did they handle the issue of a current high bidder increasing their bid on an individual lot or the total set lot to change which side was winning? Were bidders able to increase their own high bid or did they have to talk to someone at the AH to get it done for them? |
#430
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#431
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Some AHs, but not all, do allow for straight bids. So I suppose there’s another strategy to take here if you only want to bid on the full set. Enter into an alliance with a buddy who will keep bidding against you on the set side so that you don’t get locked out. Just make sure you have a safe word for when it’s time to tap out!
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel Last edited by raulus; 10-05-2023 at 06:56 AM. |
#432
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One thing that hasn't been discussed but I wonder about is what if, when Powell was the high bidder but before he was locked out, he had put in say an $800k limit bid. My guess is that the auction software would have still recorded him as the winner than night, but what would HA have done the next morning when the dust settled? His high bid on the auction program would have been unchanged (since no one outbid him on the aggregate lot) but by his limit bid he expressed a willingness to bid higher than the sum of the individual bids. Would he have been declared the winner at one increment over the sum of the individual bids or would his limit bid have been ignored since it was never executed by the auction software? If he had done that he would have had even a stronger case to be the winner. BTW, this is just after the fact pontificating; I am not saying that Powell should have realized this at the time.
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#433
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Net 54-- the discussion board where people resent discussions. ![]() My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ |
#434
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Wait until all lots are closed. Then add up the final price on all the individual lots. Compare it to the final price on the set lot. Whichever is highest, wins. If accurate, then putting in a higher max bid doesn’t do any good, unless someone actually triggers it by bidding against you ON YOUR SPECIFIC LOT. Edited to add the all caps bit.
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel Last edited by raulus; 10-05-2023 at 01:07 PM. |
#435
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Net 54-- the discussion board where people resent discussions. ![]() My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-05-2023 at 01:07 PM. |
#436
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By this time, it seems everyone has given thoughtful input and advice… most of which is very astute. Wouldn’t it be nice if Heritage would post something here? They used to have a guy who posted here with regularity, mostly to promote upcoming auctions.
It just seems to me that they should post something here to clarify their stance, and perhaps more importantly to advise us with plans to remedy these types of problematic situations, moving forward. Is that asking too much?
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Be sure to subscribe to my YouTube Channel, The Stuff Of Greatness. New videos are uploaded every week... https://www.youtube.com/@tsogreatness/videos |
#437
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#438
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Pete Calderon used to post for Heritage, if memory serves.
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Net 54-- the discussion board where people resent discussions. ![]() My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ |
#439
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Agreed, with one caveat. Someone (or multiple someones) might have max bids on the individual lot side as well. For all we know, someone really wanted one of those individual lots, and put a max bid of a cool $1M on it.
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel Last edited by raulus; 10-05-2023 at 01:48 PM. |
#440
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Fair. In a just world you would need to do apples to apples.
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Net 54-- the discussion board where people resent discussions. ![]() My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ |
#441
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But I’m not sure they have much to gain by posting. Just guessing at this part! -> Especially if they’re ignoring the whole situation. Perhaps because in their mind everything went down as planned. Might even be oblivious to the whole situation. Now if they expected to make some changes because they learned something, then a post would be a better idea.
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel Last edited by raulus; 10-05-2023 at 01:53 PM. |
#442
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They don't care and for good reason. In a week we will all forget.
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Net 54-- the discussion board where people resent discussions. ![]() My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ |
#443
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Post #18 of this thread... hi Pete!
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#444
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Maybe some, but not Powell
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#445
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It's been a long time since I've checked records, but I know we had a complete set of these 1914. Pretty sure we had a complete (or near) 1912 set as well.
If I recall correctly, the 1912s sold privately, while the 1914 set was sold in the higher-end catalog we did. This was maybe 10 years ago, so my memories could be off a bit. Always loved these cards, along with the other display materials one could have with them! |
#446
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Hi Doug! I hope all is well with you and your family. I still fondly remember going up with Richard and my younger son, Matt, to see your family collection about ten years ago. Your museum was incredible.
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#447
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All is well here, now doing a lot of work for museums and national touring exhibitions. Still collecting a bit (though mostly game-worn Mike Trout stuff). Hope you and the family are well. Would be great to catch up sometime! |
#448
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Net 54-- the discussion board where people resent discussions. ![]() My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ |
#449
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Not to derail this thread too much
I was fortunate to visit Doug & Chad's museum & spend the day there Incredible! They even served lunch ![]() Fantastic hosts! Room after room of cards & memorabilia, & not just sports. Like Fonzi & Arnold's Terminator jackets, a whole room of Lucy memorabilia pinball machines, tobacco shop posters from Allen & Ginter, Duke's, Kimball's etc.. & a whole room w/ binder after binder of cards, I spent awhile just on the N284 Buchner binder. Here's a shot of my wife Carole, standing next to a life size Shaq bobblehead wearing his game used jersey. Flanked on the walls, were jersey's of Kobe, Elgin & Kareem & Kareem's crutches & she's holding Shaq's sneaker, so big she could sleep in it ![]() Last edited by Jay Wolt; 10-06-2023 at 01:12 PM. |
#450
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I recently just picked up this piece. It was in a book of other drawings related to a lot of different products. I just thought this one was cool and timely due to the recent Boston Garter sale.
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