The Next "Big Cards"

[scmavl]

What do you think will be the next 48 Robinson/52 Mantle/54 Aaron/89 Griffey to soar up to crazy heights relative to where it is now?

I'm thinking the '51 Bowman Willie Mays. Especially after he passes, but even before. I think folks will realize what a near-perfect ballplayer he was, as well as recognizing he spent some time in the Negro Leagues.

Other likely candidates (IMO) are:

-'53 Topps Satchel Paige
-'69 Topps Reggie Jackson
-'77 Topps Dale Murphy
-'79 Topps Ozzie Smith

Thoughts?

[LincolnVT]

I think 52 stars, minor stars and rare high number cards have a lot of room to grow and seem to be in high demand.

[Exhibitman]

Assuming I could even hope to predict, I wouldn't reveal it here...just sayin'.

-'69 Topps Reggie Jackson
-'77 Topps Dale Murphy
-'79 Topps Ozzie Smith

These three are wishful thinking. None of them have the sort of appeal needed, either from a player perspective or a set perspective. A 1952 Topps stars run is more likely a good answer, but which ones is the question. Does anyone care about Enos Slaughter? Really?

The 1953 Paige is already off to the races; we will see a $1,000+ PSA 1 before the end of the run. Paige has such a small number of career-contemporary cards that once the 1953 skyrockets, look to oddball issues to follow: his Exhibit card, Indians team issues and regionals, etc. I'd be looking at very early cards of star Negro Leaguers who made it into MLB. Larry Doby, for example, is criminally undervalued. Orestes Minoso is another one who should be in the HOF. Another place to mine is the minor league cards of star NLers who never made it to an MLB cart but whose NL stats are going to be treated as MLB stats. That will generate a wave of enthusiasm for them.

[ASF123]

I'm thinking the '51 Bowman Willie Mays.

This seems like it's already happening too - when I first started thinking about buying some cards again last fall, it seemed like a no-brainer to pick up a 51B Mays as an undervalued card. I intended to get a nice one for, say, $3-4k. I didn't make the leap right away, though, and within a few weeks they were twice that.

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by ASF123

This seems like it's already happening too - when I first started thinking about buying some cards again last fall, it seemed like a no-brainer to pick up a 51B Mays as an undervalued card. I intended to get a nice one for, say, $3-4k. I didn't make the leap right away, though, and within a few weeks they were twice that.

The 51B Mays is already off and running, no next about it.
I have a PSA 10 Topps Gold Soto US300 that I was planning on selling in the Spring and then buying the Mays with that money but I think I miscalculated on that one.

[Wanaselja]

I can see Koufax’s RC and Clemente’s RC having a go. I know Clemente already had a big bump in 2015 or 16 but I could see those 2 cards gaining a lot of steam.

I’ll add the T206 Eddie Collins. That card should be at the same level as Lajoie and Speaker.

I’ll also add the 39 Play Ball Ted Williams.

[thatkidfromjerrymaguire]

Pretty much ANY Jackie Robinson card...with only a handful of options of mainstream cards (years 1948 through 1956) I think eventually the demand for authentic, playing days cards of Jackie will reach the demand currently bestowed only on Ruth.

Jackie is likely the only baseball player that will continue to be taught about to kids in history class (for obvious reasons) literally forever.

SOME day, I think maybe even the Mantle mystique will fade a little...but Jackie Robinson and Babe Ruth will be timeless.

Funny enough, I'm not good at taking my own advice. I very recently saved up a large-ish sum of money (for me) and decided I wanted to add a major piece to my collection. I currently don't own any Jackie cards, and the only Ruth card I own is rough looking 1935 Goudey 4 in 1. I debated for WEEKS whether to add a playing days Jackie card or a playing days Ruth card. And as the weeks went by, prices on both seemed to increase.

In the end, I went with Ruth (a beat up 1931 W517)...but only because his cards seem a little scarcer (and therefore more likely to get out of my price range), and I'm hopeful this current price spike will at least level off and leave me time to still save up and grab a Jackie Robinson card. I might have to lower my condition expectations, but hopefully SOMETHING will be available in my budget.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Assuming I could even hope to predict, I wouldn't reveal it here...just sayin'.

-'69 Topps Reggie Jackson
-'77 Topps Dale Murphy
-'79 Topps Ozzie Smith

These three are wishful thinking. None of them have the sort of appeal needed, either from a player perspective or a set perspective. A 1952 Topps stars run is more likely a good answer, but which ones is the question. Does anyone care about Enos Slaughter? Really?

The 1953 Paige is already off to the races; we will see a $1,000+ PSA 1 before the end of the run. Paige has such a small number of career-contemporary cards that once the 1953 skyrockets, look to oddball issues to follow: his Exhibit card, Indians team issues and regionals, etc. I'd be looking at very early cards of star Negro Leaguers who made it into MLB. Larry Doby, for example, is criminally undervalued. Orestes Minoso is another one who should be in the HOF. Another place to mine is the minor league cards of star NLers who never made it to an MLB cart but whose NL stats are going to be treated as MLB stats. That will generate a wave of enthusiasm for them.

Except the super short printed Leaf, the other two Paige cards have always seemed a relative bargain to me, as well as the Exhibit which was pretty tough to find when I was looking.

I would also consider Sadaharu Oh, there might be one of his cards out there for every 500 Mantles or maybe less.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Except the super short printed Leaf, the other two Paige cards have always seemed a relative bargain to me, as well as the Exhibit which was pretty tough to find when I was looking.

I just checked and there isn't one Paige available on eBay right now. Only two have sold in the last four months, most recently a raw one for $420.

[jb217676]

I agree on Satchel, I picked up an Exhibit real cheap a few years ago and it's gaining some steam now! Speaking of Paige, here are front and back scans of what I have catalogued as a 1948 Satchel Paige / Bobo Newsome 5" x 8" Two Sided Premium. Never seen another and I've never been able to get any real info on it (I also have a Cobb / Rabbit Maranville from the same series). If anyone can tell me more about it that would be great, maybe I have something here LOL!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I just checked and there isn't one Paige available on eBay right now. Only two have sold in the last four months, most recently a raw one for $420.

I paid 400 for mine which in hindsight was probably a good price.

[SWinn]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Except the super short printed Leaf, the other two Paige cards have always seemed a relative bargain to me, as well as the Exhibit which was pretty tough to find when I was looking.

I would also consider Sadaharu Oh, there might be one of his cards out there for every 500 Mantles or maybe less.

Agree, that exhibit Satchel Paige is quite rare and I just recently got lucky finding one. Been looking for a long time.

It was printed in 1949, same year as the Bowman.

The Robinson exhibit is another insanely underrated one. Printed in 1948.

The are both beautiful cards, although larger, who cares? I love mine and no plans on selling.

[Exhibitman]

The Robinson Exhibit was printed for several years and is available. It is undervalued, but is nothing like the Exhibit Paige, which was a one-year wonder (1949) though perhaps made it into 1950. The 1962 Pittsburgh Exhibit is another absolutely brutal Paige card to find. He pitched 5 games (25 innings) in the PCL (AAA) in 1961 so I guess his inclusion in the set wasn't quite as weird as it seemed to me when I first heard of it.

[UKCardGuy]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Does anyone care about Enos Slaughter? Really?

Hey, I like Enos Slaughter. I wouldn't pay 10K for one of his cards...

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

Hey, I like Enos Slaughter. I wouldn't pay 10K for one of his cards...

For you, then:

[Neal]

I think there is a lot of non-collectors jumping in as buyers and holders. For vintage, I don't see this as largely a "flip game" as much as an enjoyable, investing opp. I could be wrong.

That said, they aren't looking for Eddies Collins. Who? That is what most would say if asked. A touch of Gehrig and (optional) Cobb, Jackie and Satch, Mantle and Ruth, Hank and Willie sprinkled in with some Ted, 70s HOF Bigs like Schmidt and Brett, and then there is Junior - whose 89 Upper Deck PSA 10 with a gem rate of 5% will hit 8K plus. Maybe 10K. And soon.

[GasHouseGang]

Originally Posted by UKCardGuy

Hey, I like Enos Slaughter. I wouldn't pay 10K for one of his cards...

I just picked up an Enos.

[jchcollins]

I would guess the remaining 50's Mantles that haven't already skyrocketed will start to move, as people start to pass on the '53 Topps and earlier as being too expensive. '56 for sure, and then cards that are great but somewhat underappreciated like 1959 Topps #10.

The '53 Paige already mentioned is another great example. Two years ago or so I had a nicely centered PSA 5 that I bought for around $400 and later sold I think for like $590. Obviously that was not the best decision.

[scmavl]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Assuming I could even hope to predict, I wouldn't reveal it here...just sayin'.

-'69 Topps Reggie Jackson
-'77 Topps Dale Murphy
-'79 Topps Ozzie Smith

These three are wishful thinking. None of them have the sort of appeal needed, either from a player perspective or a set perspective.

A PSA 9 Ozzie just went for $7700 today (and not PWCC or Probstein!). I got mine for $2550 less than a month ago, and thought I overpaid. WOW.

[yngray1967]

1968 ryan, t206 eddie collins, 1954 banks, 1955 koufax, 1955 clemente, 1963 rose, 1967 seaver, 1967 carew.

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[yngray1967]

1967 topps rod carew

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[ASF123]

"And the first time he ever picked up a golf club, he went around in 99."

Meh. Kim Jong Il's first round, he shot a 58 with six aces. One of which was on a par 5.

[ezez420]

I can’t wait to see the bagholders after August. The market will come down after the National.

I know I won’t be one.


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[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by ezez420

I can’t wait to see the bagholders after August. The market will come down after the National.

I know I won’t be one.


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I’ll be shocked if the National Happens This Year in Chicago, Strongsville and Chantilly have already been canceled and Philly Postponed.

[here2havefun]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I’ll be shocked if the National Happens This Year in Chicago, Strongsville and Chantilly have already been canceled and Philly Postponed.

Chantilly for April?? The CSA website still says they're "monitoring the situation closely", but nothing about canceling.

[scmavl]

Originally Posted by ezez420

I can’t wait to see the bagholders after August. The market will come down after the National.

I know I won’t be one.

Why do you think this will be the case? I’m not arguing, I’m genuinely curious. I just feel like the card market lives online now, so I’m wondering how a show could influence that in today’s market. Many collectors I know (myself included) have never been, and I started collecting over 30 years ago. Thanks!

[packs]

I've been noticing Jim Brown cards are going up.

[ezez420]

It’s a cycle every year and pandemic won’t be around forever. 2016 was more profound and this has a lot of similarities but their will be a drop 30%+. Whether National happens or not. A ton of graded cards are entering market as well.

Things don’t always go up and there are gaps to fill. But expect big losses from people who will exit hobby. There aren’t always winners.

Good luck.


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[TUM301]

Agree on the Jim Brown, and thinking we`ve already seen it, but the "55" Topps Koufax rookie could be one of the next "it" cards. Should have grabbed a nicely centered mid grade but once again I`m late to the party !

[rats60]

Originally Posted by TUM301

Agree on the Jim Brown, and thinking we`ve already seen it, but the "55" Topps Koufax rookie could be one of the next "it" cards. Should have grabbed a nicely centered mid grade but once again I`m late to the party !

I think that has already happened. I upgraded to a PSA 7 at the last national for 2200.00. A year and a half later it is selling ~ 10 k.

[packs]

Originally Posted by rats60

I think that has already happened. I upgraded to a PSA 7 at the last national for 2200.00. A year and a half later it is selling ~ 10 k.

Nice! I just looked up the prices on the Koufax rookie. Wow. I bought a PSA 5 probably 15 years ago for $200. Looks like it's appreciated quite a lot since.

[dio]

Originally Posted by packs

Nice! I just looked up the prices on the Koufax rookie. Wow. I bought a PSA 5 probably 15 years ago for $200. Looks like it's appreciated quite a lot since.

It was stall for a long time before this though

[ezez420]

Memory Lane has the entire Swell Set with the Jackie Robinson in a high grade PSA 4 right now. Let’s see where it goes. People on eBay trying to push 1.5s at $12500


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[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by ezez420

Memory Lane has the entire Swell Set with the Jackie Robinson in a high grade PSA 4 right now. Let’s see where it goes. People on eBay trying to push 1.5s at $12500


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I sold my 3 for $4K last month. Had to take that profit...if it goes up from there, good for the buyer.

As for next cards, I can tell you that the heat wave hasn't reached most football, hockey or boxing. Marquee star players have gone up but rank and file HOFers not yet. Not a bad time to be snapping up inexpensive second-tier cards.

[Frankish]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

As for next cards, I can tell you that the heat wave hasn't reached most football, hockey or boxing. Marquee star players have gone up but rank and file HOFers not yet. Not a bad time to be snapping up inexpensive second-tier cards.

That's an interesting thought. I don't track prices closely unless it's something I'm actively building. But even a lunkhead like me has noticedcHowe, Richard, Orr and some of the early 80s (plus Gretzky of course) hockey RCs rise pretty sharply over the last year. And in football, Namath, Jim Brown, of course, Payton, and to a degree Starr, Unitas, Bradshaw, Staubach, Montana and more modern players.

Any idea where the current line lies, especially in football, for cards that haven't shot up yet? Many of the HOFers may never really appreciate (in my amateur and often wrong opinion). I love Ernie Barnes (as much or more for his painting as his playing), Rosie Grier, and Merlin Olsen, but I'm not sure enough collectors ever will top make a difference.....

[packs]

One of my favorite cards:

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Frankish

That's an interesting thought. I don't track prices closely unless it's something I'm actively building. But even a lunkhead like me has noticedcHowe, Richard, Orr and some of the early 80s (plus Gretzky of course) hockey RCs rise pretty sharply over the last year. And in football, Namath, Jim Brown, of course, Payton, and to a degree Starr, Unitas, Bradshaw, Staubach, Montana and more modern players.

Any idea where the current line lies, especially in football, for cards that haven't shot up yet? Many of the HOFers may never really appreciate (in my amateur and often wrong opinion). I love Ernie Barnes (as much or more for his painting as his playing), Rosie Grier, and Merlin Olsen, but I'm not sure enough collectors ever will top make a difference.....

I would look at early cards (2nd, 3rd) of the superstars first. I think there's still room for those, esp. as the RCs soar out of range of most collectors even in 'collector' grade.

[JeremyW]

Looks like the '52 Topps Mantle is the next really big one. A PSA 3 just "sold" for $75K. A nice PSA 1.5 is at $36K.

[ezez420]

I agree the portrait bond bread is the rookie to get.


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[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by ezez420

I agree the portrait bond bread is the rookie to get.


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1000%. It may never catch the Leaf in dollar amount, but has historically been a better value, and given its relative scarcity, has a lot more room to grow once the main stream collectors... errr, investors, get wind of it, and the fact it pre-dates Leaf by 2x years. Up until a few months ago it still seemed pretty easy to get a nice looking low grade example. No longer. Similar applies for the round corner version.

[Neal]

I love the portrait, but there are others too

robinson,j47.jpgrobinson47rev.jpg

[vansaad]

Originally Posted by Neal

I love the portrait, but there are others too

Attachment 445381Attachment 445382

Nice card. I wish PSA would clean up the registry and be more consistent with the variations. Here is the same version as "Awaiting Pitch".

[ezez420]

There is a Complete Set in Memory Lane right now too. With a PSA 4.



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[Peter_Spaeth]

I think there is a chance the Swell Jackie really takes off into the stratosphere. My second choice would be 49B Paige.

[itjclarke]

Old Gold sold last night for close to $8K too. Think folks are hot to find alternates to the Leaf since it’s taken off. With a handful of pre-1949 issues to choose from, I’d guess all will be on the rise. Wish I landed an Old Gold and Swell Sports when they were cheap.

[jb217676]

As far as affordable alternatives go for Jackie, I always thought the 1950 J.J.K. Copyart Postcard of Jackie Robinson was a great piece. It seems like forever it was one of the cheapest career contemporary Jackie items. Even four days ago one sold for $215 on ebay. I have one of these, let's pump it up guys!
Jeff

[scmavl]

Originally Posted by jb217676

I have one of these, let's pump it up guys!

Ha! You can't pump it up until you own a few of them- one to keep and a few to sell.

[JeremyW]

Originally Posted by jb217676

As far as affordable alternatives go for Jackie, I always thought the 1950 J.J.K. Copyart Postcard of Jackie Robinson was a great piece. It seems like forever it was one of the cheapest career contemporary Jackie items. Even four days ago one sold for $215 on ebay. I have one of these, let's pump it up guys!
Jeff

I hear that. Early fifties scarce Robinson cards are on the rise.