HOF results

[JollyElm]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Well so far you, Darren, and one out of seven voters are the only ones buying.

It's so funny reading your constant passive aggressive BS. But what's even funnier is how you so obviously think you're always the smartest person in the room.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

It's so funny reading your constant passive aggressive BS. But what's even funnier is how you so obviously think you're always the smartest person in the room.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It took you this long to get ad hominem, congratulations on your restraint LOL. Passive aggressive? It was a good-natured jab at you, Jesus what the bleep is your problem?

[JollyElm]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

You make less than no sense to me. Somebody not being unanimous has nothing to do with somebody getting 15 percent of the vote. Total straw man argument. Or just a meaningless one. Oy vey. Is that seriously your argument, that HOF voting is meaningless because Willie Mays wasn't unanimous? Huh?? Here is a challenge for you, identify the best players ever who initially got 15 percent or less of the vote. Then we have something meaningful to discuss.

Yes, WAR and JAWS are theoretical. They are statistical efforts to compare players, and while you may not like them, many people find them informative.

Oh sure, Peter, it's not obvious to me or anyone else (because we're so stupid) that you want to direct the conversation in a completely different way. To steer into some other area that has nothing to do with anything being talked about. You think I'm going to fall for that BS?? Lemme take a wild guess, you're a lawyer???

Straw man argument?? You imply that the voters are the say all, know it alls of baseball. So if these folks are the arbiters of who belongs in the Hall, how in hell did any of them leave those inarguably great players off their ballots?????

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yes, WAR and JAWS are theoretical. They are statistical efforts to compare players, and while you may not like them, many people find them informative.

Many people like you, right? You? If that's the metric, then I will gladly ignore all of them and rely on reality instead.

[btcarfagno]

Not all sabermetric stats are theoretical. OPS+ is quantitative. Kent is not a top ten second baseman in OPS+. Barely top 20 for players with 6,000+ plate appearances.

Tom C

[JollyElm]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It took you this long to get ad hominem, congratulations on your restraint LOL. Passive aggressive? It was a good-natured jab at you, Jesus what the bleep is your problem?

I just read this thread, since I haven't been here all day and you mentioned me numerous times. That's passive aggressive, not jabs, you tool.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

Oh sure, Peter, it's not obvious to me or anyone else (because we're so stupid) that you want to direct the conversation in a completely different way. To steer into some other area that has nothing to do with anything being talked about. You think I'm going to fall for that BS?? Lemme take a wild guess, you're a lawyer???

Straw man argument?? You imply that the voters are the say all, know it alls of baseball. So if these folks are the arbiters of who belongs in the Hall, how in hell did any of them leave those inarguably great players off their ballots?????



Many people like you, right? You? If that's the metric, then I will gladly ignore all of them and rely on reality instead.

Let me take a wild guess, you're not.

I think in the aggregate, yes, the voters are a pretty good barometer of who is Hall-worthy. Obviously there are some idiots voting but overall, someone getting 15 percent in their first three tries, is pretty relevant. Now if it's true that the reason people aren't voting for Kent is steroid suspicion, then I would have to modify that. But wasn't Kent leading the charge for testing? And wasn't he even speaking out against HGH?

http://www.sfgate.com/giants/shea/ar...ra-4197014.php

Perhaps more than any other ballplayer, Kent lobbied for testing when it wasn't trendy, when the union and much of its membership fought against it. In a clubhouse in which Greg Anderson once had free rein as a drug runner for Bonds and other Giants, Kent often stood at his locker and called for Major League Baseball and the union to iron out a legitimate steroids policy.

[Rookiemonster]

How about Larry Doyle ?

[ALR-bishop]

Peter--- you're a passive aggressive lawyer ? Darn.

[packs]

If WAR and JAWS is the only way you can understand a player you watched that's sad. People like you will look at a player like Bernie Williams' stats forever and have no idea about how clutch he was when it mattered. But I will because I used my eyes.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

If WAR and JAWS is the only way you can understand a player you watched that's sad. People like you will look at a player like Bernie Williams' stats forever and have no idea about how clutch he was when it mattered. But I will because I used my eyes.

How many of his 2076 games did you see?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ALR-bishop

Peter--- you're a passive aggressive lawyer ? Darn.

More aggressive than passive I would say.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How many of his 2076 games did you see?

Nearly all of them. But his ability is much better represented on paper as you prefer.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Nearly all of them. But his ability is much better represented on paper as you prefer.

That's a lot of games, wow. So do you think he should be in the Hall?

[packs]

No but I'd pick him for my team if I wanted to win a championship. Hell, I'd pick Orlando Hernandez before a ton of HOFers too. But if you only looked at JAWS and WAR you'd probably cross them off your list pretty fast.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

No but I'd pick him for my team if I wanted to win a championship. Hell, I'd pick Orlando Hernandez before a ton of HOFers too. But if you only looked at JAWS and WAR you'd probably cross them off your list pretty fast.

I always liked Bernie, but it was on the basis of a much smaller sampling of games obviously.

The thing is, I would bet you are quite unusual having seen that high a percentage of a given player's games. For most of us, we just have ideas based on a smaller sample, or we never saw them at all, which is why stats do matter.

[packs]

If you lived in NY and were a Yankees fan, it was pretty easy to watch the Yankees play. I don't think I'm particularly special because I'm a loyal hometown fan. My point is there are things you don't need stats to tell you. But you are only relying on stats in your analysis of anyone.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

If you lived in NY and were a Yankees fan, it was pretty easy to watch the Yankees play. I don't think I'm particularly special because I'm a loyal hometown fan. My point is there are things you don't need stats to tell you. But you are only relying on stats in your analysis of anyone.

For better or worse stats are the common denominator. Suppose you were very knowledgeable about Bernie Williams, and another guy was very knowledgeable about Bagwell. Both of you claim their guy was great way beyond what his stats show, based on their personal observation. Do we just take both of your words and vote em both in (or if you don't think Bernie was worthy pick someone else, who it is is irrelevant to the problem)? If not, how do we test your claims? In baseball it seems, where EVERYTHING shows up in a stat sheet, what we have to make comparisons are stats. Because nobody has seen everybody.

[packs]

I think stats are useful when you're discussing a player you never saw play or a player who played a different kind of baseball, like say a deadball era player. But when we're a group discussing players we all saw play out their entire careers, I don't think stats are as important as personal experience. Years from now people may look at Vlad's numbers and think they're puny compared to a guy like Griffey. But if you saw Vlad play, you know he could hit with just about anyone. That's the difference.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I think stats are useful when you're discussing a player you never saw play or a player who played a different kind of baseball, like say a deadball era player. But when we're a group discussing players we all saw play out their entire careers, I don't think stats are as important as personal experience. Years from now people may look at Vlad's numbers and think they're puny compared to a guy like Griffey. But if you saw Vlad play, you know he could hit with just about anyone. That's the difference.

I saw Vlad, but maybe in 25-30 games, not a meaningful sample. Maybe more than that but still, not hundreds. Griffey maybe more than that, but still, overall, a very small percentage of his games and very few for the second half of his career as I am in an AL city. Those samples can be deceptive. When you test, for example, some of the great clutch hitter type claims based on subjective impressions (a la Munson), they don't hold up.

[packs]

Right but I'm talking about the perception a stat sheet gives you vs. first hand watching the player. Vlad's numbers aren't going to jump out at anyone 100 years from now. But anyone who saw him play even once would tell you the guy was a pure hitter amongst pure hitters and it's going to be a while before you see another one like him. A stat sheet won't tell you that and since we're discussing players of today, I think there's room for debate without a stat sheet in front of you.

[btcarfagno]

If you can come up with a game situation, there is a stay for it. Driving in the go ahead run with two out in the seventh inning or later? That can be gotten. Whatever your definition of "clutch" is it can be quantified. It may not agree with a preconceived notion, bias, or emotion. But it can most certainly be quantified.

Tom C

[packs]

I don't think so. Tommy Henrich's nickname is Old Reliable. I don't know why. I never saw him play and his 262 WS average doesn't jump out at me. But I bet someone on the board who did see him play will defend him forever.

My only point is that we shouldn't be so stringent in our discussions about modern players that we've all seen play. Stats don't need to fill in the blanks for these players. We all saw them and we should be able to debate them without being reduced to JAWS or WAR. That's for guys you never saw.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Impressions, and memories, are highly subjective. And often biased.

In recent years the Hall of Fame has turned into the Hall of Mediocrity

[glchen]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Hornsby, Lajoie, Collins, Morgan, Robinson, Alomar, Biggio, Gehringer, Carew, Grich, Sandberg, Utley, Frisch.

I really think there is an eye test that is being missed here. What we do know is that Kent moved to Astros in 2003, and joined Biggio there. However, Kent is the player who stayed at 2nd base, and Biggio moved to the outfield. If Biggio were the better player at 2nd, wouldn't the team have kept him at 2nd and moved Kent to the OF?

I really think it's pointless to continue to argue this because I'm pretty confident that Kent will eventually make the HOF even if it is via the Veteran's Committee (unless of course, he is implicated for using PEDs). Every other player who leads his position (excluding pitchers) in home runs all time is in the Hall of Fame (taking out PED users). He's obviously not a first ballot HOFer, and he doesn't have the 3000 hit credentials like Biggio. However, he is someone like a Gary Carter who will get in eventually.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by glchen

I really think there is an eye test that is being missed here. What we do know is that Kent moved to Astros in 2003, and joined Biggio there. However, Kent is the player who stayed at 2nd base, and Biggio moved to the outfield. If Biggio were the better player at 2nd, wouldn't the team have kept him at 2nd and moved Kent to the OF?

I really think it's pointless to continue to argue this because I'm pretty confident that Kent will eventually make the HOF even if it is via the Veteran's Committee (unless of course, he is implicated for using PEDs). Every other player who leads his position (excluding pitchers) in home runs all time is in the Hall of Fame (taking out PED users). He's obviously not a first ballot HOFer, and he doesn't have the 3000 hit credentials like Biggio. However, he is someone like a Gary Carter who will get in eventually.

What does moving Biggio to the outfield have to do with whether he or Kent was the better hitter? Or maybe Biggio was more adaptable and Kent couldn't play outfield?

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by glchen

I really think there is an eye test that is being missed here. What we do know is that Kent moved to Astros in 2003, and joined Biggio there. However, Kent is the player who stayed at 2nd base, and Biggio moved to the outfield. If Biggio were the better player at 2nd, wouldn't the team have kept him at 2nd and moved Kent to the OF?

I really think it's pointless to continue to argue this because I'm pretty confident that Kent will eventually make the HOF even if it is via the Veteran's Committee (unless of course, he is implicated for using PEDs). Every other player who leads his position (excluding pitchers) in home runs all time is in the Hall of Fame (taking out PED users). He's obviously not a first ballot HOFer, and he doesn't have the 3000 hit credentials like Biggio. However, he is someone like a Gary Carter who will get in eventually.

I agree he will eventually get in barring some PED issue real or imagined keeping him out.

But Biggio went to center field because he was a good enough athlete to move there. He was also a good enough athlete to have started his career as a catcher. Jeff Kent in Center field?

Oh. My. Freaking. Goodness. No.

No.

Tom C

[glchen]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

What does moving Biggio to the outfield have to do with whether he or Kent was the better hitter? Or maybe Biggio was more adaptable and Kent couldn't play outfield?

Peter, please just read your comments again. Seriously, if that doesn't get through, how about Kent had a higher WAR than Biggio those two years that both played for the Astros? Would that prove to you that Kent was the better hitter then during those years?

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

I agree he will eventually get in barring some PED issue real or imagined keeping him out.

But Biggio went to center field because he was a good enough athlete to move there. He was also a good enough athlete to have started his career as a catcher. Jeff Kent in Center field?

Oh. My. Freaking. Goodness. No.

No.

Tom C

Tom, Biggio had a negative defensive WAR during those 2003 and 2004 when he played OF when Kent was there. In fact, Biggio's career defensive WAR is -3.9 while Kent's career defensive WAR is -0.9. Therefore, just maybe Kent was the better athlete.

[btcarfagno]

Regarding Bernie Williams and "clutch", Fangraphs has a stat called...well...clutch. It measures a players stats in such " clutch" situations versus his stats overall. Someone with better stats in the clutch situations will have a positive "clutch" value. Generally a number greater than zero but less than two. So conversely, a negative number means that person did worse than their normal in clutch situations.

Bernie Williams clutch number is -.99.

Tom C

[packs]

Does this clutch factor into playoff games or only regular season?

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by packs

Does this clutch factor into playoff games or only regular season?

Only regular season. Doing just playoff games would be too small of a sample size to be meaningful.

Tom C

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

regarding bernie williams and "clutch", fangraphs has a stat called...well...clutch. It measures a players stats in such " clutch" situations versus his stats overall. Someone with better stats in the clutch situations will have a positive "clutch" value. Generally a number greater than zero but less than two. So conversely, a negative number means that person did worse than their normal in clutch situations.

Bernie williams clutch number is -.99.

Tom c

lol.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by packs

I'm talking about average second basemen. They're everywhere. Maybe Bobby Grich was a little better, but nothing sets him apart from the plethora of guys like him. Decent stats, above average, but not the all time hitter Kent was.

Name another second basemen who could hit like Kent. You can't.

Peak value for a 4/5 year period, Joe Morgan was a better hitter than Kent...case closed. Historically speaking, Hornsby, Lajoie and Collins are all better pure hitters, with Hornsby arguably the greatest right handed hitter ever along with Aaron and Foxx.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

What does moving Biggio to the outfield have to do with whether he or Kent was the better hitter? Or maybe Biggio was more adaptable and Kent couldn't play outfield?

Well said Peter. Jeff Kent couldn't run down a beach ball in the outfield, let alone a batted baseball!

[packs]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Only regular season. Doing just playoff games would be too small of a sample size to be meaningful.

Tom C

Postseason is what I was talking about when I said clutch. I said I'd pick Bernie for my team if I wanted to win. He hit 280 with 22 homers and 80 rbi's in 121 postseason games. That's nearly an entire season of postseason games and he played that well when it mattered most.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

Peak value for a 4/5 year period, Joe Morgan was a better hitter than Kent...case closed. Historically speaking, Hornsby, Lajoie and Collins are all better pure hitters, with Hornsby arguably the greatest right handed hitter ever along with Aaron and Foxx.

Then there's a guy named Carew who won 6 batting titles in 7 years.

[CMIZ5290]

Why in the World do we keep talking about Jeff Kent? What am I missing?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Postseason is what I was talking about when I said clutch. I said I'd pick Bernie for my team if I wanted to win. He hit 280 with 22 homers and 80 rbi's in 121 postseason games. That's nearly an entire season of postseason games and he played that well when it mattered most.

A little more power, but relatively consistent with his regular season stats where he had a 162 game average of 22-98-/297

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

Why in the World do we keep talking about Jeff Kent? What am I missing?

Because he's an obvious HOFer, the best hitting second baseman of the modern era, who has been shafted by the voters.

[ejharrington]

In my opinion, Jeff Kent should be in the HOF. Bobby Grich should not be. Kent was considered elite during his peak years. I don't recall Grich being perceived the same way.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ejharrington

In my opinion, Jeff Kent should be in the HOF. Bobby Grich should not be. Kent was considered elite during his peak years. I don't recall Grich being perceived the same way.

Kent made five all star teams, Grich six.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

A little more power, but relatively consistent with his regular season stats where he had a 162 game average of 22-98-/297

Yes that's true but you're not factoring in the importance of the games he played in. The guy was a winner. He's who I want in centerfield if I'm trying to win a championship. If I want a guy to play well all year and crap out when I need him most I'll look elsewhere. Anyway we're getting away from the central point I was trying to make which was that I don't need a stat sheet to tell me about a player I watched. Your JAWS, WAR, and anything else you want to throw in means nothing to me if I saw the player and we can discuss the player independent of those stats.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Good article on Kent and his HOF case.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/12/16/jaw...llot-jeff-kent

[ejharrington]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Kent made five all star teams, Grich six.

I know, but Kent won the MVP and seemed to me more dominant than Grich in his prime.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Yes that's true but you're not factoring in the importance of the games he played in. The guy was a winner. He's who I want in centerfield if I'm trying to win a championship. If I want a guy to play well all year and crap out when I need him most I'll look elsewhere. Anyway we're getting away from the central point I was trying to make which was that I don't need a stat sheet to tell me about a player I watched. Your JAWS, WAR, and anything else you want to throw in means nothing to me if I saw the player and we can discuss the player independent of those stats.

I am not saying anything against Williams, as I said I liked him a lot. But my point is that impressions, memories, etc. are subjective and don't always hold up to reality.

[packs]

Of course not but we're talking about players who retired less than 10 years ago. Memory isn't that fluid. And like I said, when you look back on the game as an old man, are you bringing up WAR? Is that how you want to remember a player like Griffey? Can't we talk about what we saw on the field?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Of course not but we're talking about players who retired less than 10 years ago. Memory isn't that fluid. And like I said, when you look back on the game as an old man, are you bringing up WAR? Is that how you want to remember a player like Griffey? Can't we talk about what we saw on the field?

Of course, but when the question is raised who is better, X or Y, I think the argument will be made far more persuasively with statistics than memories.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ejharrington

I know, but Kent won the MVP and seemed to me more dominant than Grich in his prime.

Turning to peak WAR, covering his best seven seasons, Kent's 35.6 ranks 25th, about nine wins behind the average Hall of Fame second baseman and below 13 of the 19 enshrined. Kent is hurt on both WAR fronts because he had just three seasons of at least 5.0 WAR, all of them from 1999 to 2001, and two more seasons of at least 4.0 WAR. By comparison, Morgan had 10 seasons of at least 5.0 WAR. Alomar, Cano, Grich, Sandberg and Utley had six apiece, and Biggio, Rod Carew and Dustin Pedroia recorded five. Even at the 4.0 WAR bar, 11 post-expansion second basemen had more big seasons.

In the end, Kent's 45.4 JAWS is 12.6 points below the Hall standard for second basemen, 18th all-time but below 11 of the 19 Hall of Famers, and too far to be made up by the parts of his resumé that the system doesn't capture, mainly the awards and the postseason (a characteristic .276/.340/.500 with nine homers in 189 PA). Outside of his 2000 MVP award, his highest finish was sixth, and he made just five All-Star teams. He scores 122 ("a good possibility") on the Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor, but the average score for a Hall of Fame second baseman is 161.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I always liked Bernie, but it was on the basis of a much smaller sampling of games obviously.

The thing is, I would bet you are quite unusual having seen that high a percentage of a given player's games. For most of us, we just have ideas based on a smaller sample, or we never saw them at all, which is why stats do matter.

When I lived in Houston I saw Phil Garner play at the Astrodome around 30 times. He probably hit 12 HR's in those games, which led me to believe that he was an incredible HR hitter. I also personally saw Sandy Alomar Jr hit the longest HR I've ever seen, t.v. or otherwise, leading me to believe that he was the strongest baseball player in history. We didn't have the internet back then, and I didn't have their baseball cards, so I would probably have voted both of them into the Hall of Fame. I also saw Edwin Correa carry a no-hitter into the 8th, and from what I remember about him, he always performed above average when I attended Rangers games, so I'm going to have to put him on my ballot as well.

I saw Griffey Jr. hit his last home run, and I also saw him asleep in the dug-out. I'm just glad he came back to wrap up things in Seattle; otherwise, I would never have gotten to see him play. Congrats to him for his election.

Regarding Edgar - there will always be those who argue against DH's in the Hall.
Regarding Sammy and McGwire - same thing for peds; however, it's kind of weird that Larry Stone (our local sports writer) voted for Barry Bonds, but left off Sosa and McGwire - where's the logic in that?
Regarding Kent and Grich - if you are going to let Rizzuto and Reese in, why not? On the other hand, are there any HOF'er baseball cards from Kent's days that you would trade for a Kent? for a Grich? I thought not.

Lots of nonsense in this thread, so I feel no guilt for adding mine.

[ejharrington]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Turning to peak WAR, covering his best seven seasons, Kent's 35.6 ranks 25th, about nine wins behind the average Hall of Fame second baseman and below 13 of the 19 enshrined. Kent is hurt on both WAR fronts because he had just three seasons of at least 5.0 WAR, all of them from 1999 to 2001, and two more seasons of at least 4.0 WAR. By comparison, Morgan had 10 seasons of at least 5.0 WAR. Alomar, Cano, Grich, Sandberg and Utley had six apiece, and Biggio, Rod Carew and Dustin Pedroia recorded five. Even at the 4.0 WAR bar, 11 post-expansion second basemen had more big seasons.

In the end, Kent's 45.4 JAWS is 12.6 points below the Hall standard for second basemen, 18th all-time but below 11 of the 19 Hall of Famers, and too far to be made up by the parts of his resumé that the system doesn't capture, mainly the awards and the postseason (a characteristic .276/.340/.500 with nine homers in 189 PA). Outside of his 2000 MVP award, his highest finish was sixth, and he made just five All-Star teams. He scores 122 ("a good possibility") on the Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor, but the average score for a Hall of Fame second baseman is 161.

I know, I have the JAWS stats on my favorites. WAR / JAWS is helpful but by itself is not a bright line for or against Hall induction, especially since defensive WAR is highly suspect and in some cases totally inaccurate. I know Bobby Grich's baseball cards were in the commons bin growing up. He was underrated but not considered an elite player during his day.