Will Jeter beat Pete Rose's Record of 4,256 Hits?

[canjond]

So let's start talking legitimate expectations then. I agree with the above that Jeter's chance at Rose (and for that matter, Cobb) is pretty unlikely. But, I do think Jeter has a very good shot of moving into the #3 spot all-time.

The numbers, as they stand today, are as follows:

3. Hank Aaron+ (23) 3771 R
4. Stan Musial+ (22) 3630 L
5. Tris Speaker+ (22) 3514 L
6. Cap Anson+ (27) 3435 R
7. Honus Wagner+ (21) 3420 R
8. Carl Yastrzemski+ (23) 3419 L
9. Paul Molitor+ (21) 3319 R
10. Eddie Collins+ (25) 3315 L
11. Willie Mays+ (22) 3283 R
12. Eddie Murray+ (21) 3255 B
13. Nap Lajoie+ (21) 3242 R
14. Cal Ripken+ (21) 3184 R
15. George Brett+ (21) 3154 L
16. Paul Waner+ (20) 3152 L
17. Derek Jeter (18, 38) 3142 R

That means, as of today, Jeter is 630 hits away from moving into the #3 spot.

Given Jeter's current production (54 hits on the season), let's assume he has another 200 hit season in him, so at the end of 2012, he would stand at 3288. Let's also assume production will fall off in 2013 and 2014, to 175 and 160 hits respectively (ie, as bad as the 2010 season, and worse). That would then put Jeter at 3623, or roughly 150 hits shy of #3. Even if he is a part-time player at that point, I could see Jeter collecting 75 hits over 2 final seasons to get there.