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#1
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So I guess the conclusion is, is that getting a general population (not exact) is just a dream and can be never accomplished. I thought it could be accomplished by one pulling sales records from all over the place throughout the past few years. And also by maybe doing a poll like Northviewcats Suggested. I would do all this but I do not have the time or the patience. O well
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#2
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I think the rough estimate that I like to use especially for cards that are in sets is take the card that is most likely to be graded (that is not short printed or double printed), add the pops of the three major TPG's (PSA/SGC/BVG), and then double it to take into account raw cards. For example, if there are a total of 500 graded 1933 Goudey #149 Babe Ruth's, I would double that to say that, in general, there would be 1000 copies of every 1933 Goudey that is not short printed (e.g., low numbers) or double printed (e.g., #144 Ruth). These high value superstar cards are much more likely to be graded, so the pop reports will give you a more accurate reflection of the commons. For example, in a set such as the 1928 Harrington Ice cream, there are 22 Ruth's in the PSA pop report, but only 1 Joe Dugan. Is that because Harrington printed 20X more Ruth's than all of the all players? Very doubtful and it's most likely that there are also 20+ Joe Dugans out there, but just haven't been graded because it's not worth the grading fee.
Of course, some will say that there are more Ruth's than Dugan's out there because kids and other collectors back then would be much more likely to keep their Ruth cards and toss away their Dugan's. Therefore, HOFer's and others like Ruth would be more likely to survive to this day. |
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