"TRUE" population of a card

[Northviewcats]

Would it be possible to estimate the population of a given card based on the number of collectors who collect graded cards versus ungraded? Let's assume that we did a poll of collectors here on Net54 who collected graded versus raw. Lets say that out of 100 collectors polled--50 collected graded & 35 collected raw & 15 collected both. (I have no idea if this is a correct ratio, we would have to look at the poll, or perhaps do a couple of polls several months apart) Could we then extend the analysis to the combined population reports to get an approximate idea of how many total cards are out there?

As far as the concern about cards that were busted out of holders and not reported back to the population report. You could ask the raw collectors that were polled what percentage of their collection was once in a holder, but now is raw.

Lets say that the combined population report of card A is 100 and the ratio above was confirmed by the poll then there would be 30 more ungraded examples floating around minus the percentage of the once graded cards that have been broken out of slabs. If that number is 5% your estimated population of card A might be:

100 -5 +30 = 125 cards.

I teach English, not Math, and this is making my head hurt.

Best regards,

Joe

[ullmandds]

Good luck guys...you can figure all of the equations/integrals/theories you want but we will never know exact figures for known examples of any given card...all we have are estimates.

[Matt]

I would ask - why? What's the point of knowing if there are exactly 37 or 46 of a particular card in existence?

What is of interest to me is relative rarity e.g. that Tris Speaker's V100 is tougher then his M116 and I think pop reports, as they are, are instructive in that conversation because, as a general principal, all the noise mentioned above (resubmissions, mistakes, raw cards, etc.) should apply uniformly across all issues. I acknowledge there are cases where that logic doesn't work (e.g. comparing the pop of Andy Pafko's 1952 Topps to his 1954 Topps would be meaningless).

[Seiklis]

The one "True" pop report I'd love to see is the 1924 Diaz Cigarettes...I know of one full set out there, and the rest of the cards are just pure blind luck on who exists more than others

[zljones]

The point is to not get an exact number just an estimated number, right now there is not even a rough estimate out there for anything. I just think a lot of collecters like me would like to know about how many of their card is out there.

[zljones]

Originally Posted by Northviewcats

Would it be possible to estimate the population of a given card based on the number of collectors who collect graded cards versus ungraded? Let's assume that we did a poll of collectors here on Net54 who collected graded versus raw. Lets say that out of 100 collectors polled--50 collected graded & 35 collected raw & 15 collected both. (I have no idea if this is a correct ratio, we would have to look at the poll, or perhaps do a couple of polls several months apart) Could we then extend the analysis to the combined population reports to get an approximate idea of how many total cards are out there?

As far as the concern about cards that were busted out of holders and not reported back to the population report. You could ask the raw collectors that were polled what percentage of their collection was once in a holder, but now is raw.

Lets say that the combined population report of card A is 100 and the ratio above was confirmed by the poll then there would be 30 more ungraded examples floating around minus the percentage of the once graded cards that have been broken out of slabs. If that number is 5% your estimated population of card A might be:

100 -5 +30 = 125 cards.

I teach English, not Math, and this is making my head hurt.

Best regards,

Joe

+1 I like your theory of how to get a estimated population

[rainier2004]

Zach - I like the though, am a son of CPA, but I think a little creative thinking would be in order here vs a true formula. I.e. a Cracker Jack Joe jacskon would have a MUCH higher percentage of cards graded vesus raw comparing to a common card. Compare that to say a 1934 goudey hank greenberg...more cards, smaller percent graded with probably more sitting in private collections, undisclosed as well. I would think some cards, like an e107, would have nearly 100% in slabs. Sooo many variables involved. Your formula would have to include these varibales...complicated at best. Good luck!

[zljones]

Originally Posted by rainier2004

Zach - I like the though, am a son of CPA, but I think a little creative thinking would be in order here vs a true formula. I.e. a Cracker Jack Joe jacskon would have a MUCH higher percentage of cards graded vesus raw comparing to a common card. Compare that to say a 1934 goudey hank greenberg...more cards, smaller percent graded with probably more sitting in private collections, undisclosed as well. I would think some cards, like an e107, would have nearly 100% in slabs. Sooo many variables involved. Your formula would have to include these varibales...complicated at best. Good luck!

Indeed I am not that great at math so I don't know if I could ever embark in this type of adventure. It would definately be something that would have to take in several factors, it would probably be best just to track prewar only.

[mets41]

Where do you want to factor in some of I have? During the pre-grading card companies era I worked on the sets I collected as a kid and lost in a family move. These cards (1960-64 Topps, Fleer, and Leaf) were purchased raw and never graded.

[doug.goodman]

I am constantly amazed at how the portion of the world population that grades cards seems to think that the "population" of those cards somehow has a correlation to the amount of cards in existence.

Maybe I'm completely wrong...

BUT...

It is my opinion that, on the average, most people who own any given card, have not had that card graded.

I may be wrong.

But, I doubt it.

With all best wishes to all persons who collect or possess any card either graded or raw,
Doug

[glchen]

Like others have said, very valuable cards are much more likely to be slabbed than commons. Few would grade a beater t206 Heinie Wagner but many Honus Wagners would be graded.

[ScottFandango]

i know there are OLD SCHOOL collectors who dont like plastic....

but you cant tell me these collectors are cracking out VALUABLE CARDS and putting them in mylar sleeves..that would be assinine...

not only does that immeadiately lower the value of the collectible, but it puts it back in harms way...

so using the POP reports for rare cards is a good idea because these will be VERY ACCURATE...

no intelligent person is deslabbing a RARE VALUABLE CARD..NOT DONE!