What is your definition of "RARE?"

[t206blogcom]

Originally Posted by betafolio2

I see sellers on eBay using this information all the time to make their cards sound more exciting and desirable! But it doesn't work on me.

Exactly - 'Rare' on eBay is more of a marketing tool than an accurate description. While most on this board will see through the false rarity claims on eBay, there are many others on eBay who don't and do pay premiums for relatively common cards. I don't fault the sellers as they're trying to get top dollar for their auctions. I fault the uninformed buyers who not knowing what they're buying.

[drc]

A problem with rarity numbers is no one knows how many of a given card exists.

After all, the Murphy's Law of Pre-War collecting is purchasing the "only one in existence" means a second will show up on eBay the next week.

If you guys decided a rarity scale was the way to go-- you'd have endless arguments of how many of the cards exists.

Start with the T206 Honus Wagner. Let's hammer out how many exist.

[joeadcock]

Another problem with population reports. Who knows how many of the cards were cracked out(lets say from PSA) and submitted to another grading company.

Hence, there is actually less supply of some cards out there(with respect to graded card only, of course).

What is stored in someone's home/vault or yet to be found, will only probably be partially known in the future.

[ctownboy]

It will never happen but the best way to truly find out what is rare and what isn't would be if the value of the card was based on the number that could be proven in existence.

I love using this as an example. I have a 1928 Star Player Candy card of Buddy Myer. Up until I displayed this card on the old board about six years ago, this card was unknown. Now, including mine, there are two known to exist.

You would think because of its rarity it MUST be extremely valuable. Not so.

Yes, I was offered $1,000 dollars for the card but compared to a T206 Honus Wagner, of which at least 60 more are known, this card is valued WAAAAAAAY less.

So, two Buddy Myer cards known to exist and you can buy them for the equivalent of a good computer and an iPhone. Thirty times more T206 Honus Wagners known and, for the same condition card, you are looking at paying the price of a decent sized house in a nice suburban neighborhood.

David

[Exhibitman]

[rarity + notoriety] x demand = price

I have lots of very rare but obscure cards. Rarity may be through the roof but notoriety and demand are low. This Ruth card is rare, with only a handful of known examples, but obscure:



A 1952 Topps Mantle is common--I could buy one within the hour if I had the scratch--so the rarity figure is relatively low but the notoriety and demand are way up there, so the price is strong even for a beater. Anyone want to swap the Ruth for a 1952 Topps Mantle?

[Matt]

one tweak based on your post:
[rarity + notoriety] x demand / ugliness = price

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

[rarity + notoriety] x demand = price

I have lots of very rare but obscure cards. Rarity may be through the roof but notoriety and demand are low. This Ruth card is rare, with only a handful of known examples, but obscure:

[bbcard1]

Rare? A dealer saying "I'm too full for dessert" at dinner after a show.