Slightly OT - Are we at the end of the road for 300 win/3000 hit players?

[ctownboy]

It will be tougher but there will be some players, I think, who will play long enough to get to those marks.

Moyer had Tommy John surgery and then came back at 49.

Damon signed with the Indians and is currently in the Minors. Should be up by early May.

Petitte retired and then had a change of heart.

With the improvement in medical procedures and rehab and the huge money that these guys can still make, there WILL be guys hanging on just to get the numbers.

The two problems I see right now are 1) guys going to college instead of signing out of high school and 2) teams NOT bringing up young players when they are ready because of the fear of Super Two status and 3) teams NOT keeping old players like they used to.

In the old days, there were more guys coming to baseball straight out of high school and there wasn't anything like Super Two to worry about. So, you could have a 19, 20 or 21 year-old kid coming up and being able to play for 20 years. Now, that 19 or 20 year-old kid is in college and THEN gets drafted and spends time in the Minors.

So, by the time they are ready (and after the team has kept them in the Minors just long enough to keep them from Super Two) they are 23. 24 or 25. Which means it is going to be tough to stay in the Majors for 20 years.

Then, of course, there are guys like Vlad Guerrero, Maglio Ordonez and Derek Lee who COULD still play but aren't being given the chance for some reason (probably because a team would rather give a scrub like Miguel Cairo, Jonny Gomes or Corey Patterson one or two million dollars instead of the larger contracts these guys would want).

Then again, these older players might have too much pride and are overvaluing what they bring to the table. So, instead of swallowing their pride and playing for "only" one million dollars they hold out for more and don't get it.

David

[Scott Garner]

Originally Posted by ctownboy

It will be tougher but there will be some players, I think, who will play long enough to get to those marks.

Moyer had Tommy John surgery and then came back at 49.

Damon signed with the Indians and is currently in the Minors. Should be up by early May.

Petitte retired and then had a change of heart.

With the improvement in medical procedures and rehab and the huge money that these guys can still make, there WILL be guys hanging on just to get the numbers.

The two problems I see right now are 1) guys going to college instead of signing out of high school and 2) teams NOT bringing up young players when they are ready because of the fear of Super Two status and 3) teams NOT keeping old players like they used to.

In the old days, there were more guys coming to baseball straight out of high school and there wasn't anything like Super Two to worry about. So, you could have a 19, 20 or 21 year-old kid coming up and being able to play for 20 years. Now, that 19 or 20 year-old kid is in college and THEN gets drafted and spends time in the Minors.

So, by the time they are ready (and after the team has kept them in the Minors just long enough to keep them from Super Two) they are 23. 24 or 25. Which means it is going to be tough to stay in the Majors for 20 years.

Then, of course, there are guys like Vlad Guerrero, Maglio Ordonez and Derek Lee who COULD still play but aren't being given the chance for some reason (probably because a team would rather give a scrub like Miguel Cairo, Jonny Gomes or Corey Patterson one or two million dollars instead of the larger contracts these guys would want).

Then again, these older players might have too much pride and are overvaluing what they bring to the table. So, instead of swallowing their pride and playing for "only" one million dollars they hold out for more and don't get it.

David

Hi David,
You made some good points in your post. Nice job!

One comment:
Don't always count out the 24 and 25 year olds. Lefty Grove and more recently Randy Johnson were both 25 before they threw their first pitch in the major leagues. Both ended up with over 300 wins. Maybe it's a stubborn lefty thing?

[packs]

If Tim Hudson didn't get hurt 2 years ago and miss the entire season I thought he had a real chance at 300 wins. Now it seems like it's out of his reach. He's 35 and hurt again this year. But 181 wins in 13 years is pretty incredible. He never gets talked about. Also he shares the distinction of being the only pitcher to pitch more than 10 full seasons and never have a losing record. Andy Pettitte is the other pitcher.

I still think Ichiro is going to get 3000 hits. He is 600 away.

Still think plenty of pitchers will win 300 games but we won't know who's on their way for a little while. Pitching critics should relax. There are plenty of guys going out there and throwing.

edited to add: Do we really not know why teams won't sign Vlad or Magglio? Vlad was just arrested for fighting police officers and Magglio doesn't have knees.

[mr2686]

As of a few years ago, I thought Ichiro would do it too...but he seems very mortal the last season plus. I think it would be a great story if he does, but I'm not holding my breath.

[7nohitter]

What's the over/under on that fella' pitching in Washington....#37...not sure of the kid's name.

[packs]

I still think Ichiro will have no problem getting to 3000. He had a terrible year last year and still finished with 184 hits and 40 stolen bases. He's a private guy. Maybe he was dealing with a private issue. Or maybe all those years in Seattle are making him depressed.

[Matt]

Interesting that the whole movement of pitch counts and 5 days rest between starts are relatively new concepts and seem to be invertly related to the number of 300 game winners. The whole point was for career longevity.

[Scott Garner]

Originally Posted by Matt

Interesting that the whole movement of pitch counts and 5 days rest between starts are relatively new concepts and seem to be invertly related to the number of 300 game winners. The whole point was for career longevity.

You are correct. Interesting side note:

If you haven't heard this, Nolan Ryan feels that this philosohy is all wrong, BTW. His coaching staff has starters pitching more, not less in order to develop more pitching arm strength and stamina.

So far you can't argue with the results. The Texas Rangers organization seems to be heading in the right direction and their pitching staff is looking pretty good.

[packs]

Were they saying this kind of stuff in the 80s? Because if they were, just counting pitchers who began their careers post-1985 the following pitchers won 300 games:

Roger Clemens
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine

If you look at 3,000 hit players who began their careers after 1985 you have:

Craig Biggio
Derek Jeter
Rafael Palmeiro

More 300 game winners.