SMR vs. VCP

[HRBAKER]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

Absolutely. There are plenty of threads (on this and many other boards) comparing SMR to VCP. If people weren't looking at the SMR, these threads wouldn't exist because people wouldn't care.

Sure David some people look at SMR and they even start threads comparing the two. That doesn't mean a significant number in the overall scheme of things regard it as a "legitimate" pricing tool. I'm not convinced there are.

[vintagetoppsguy]

The fact is that VCP is lower than SMR on most cards. Obviously people can give examples of data that conflict my statement, but I am not talking about the 1% of cards that actually sell above SMR. My theory is based on the other 99% of cards that sell below SMR.

SMR was out years before VCP came into existence. And for years people were paying less than SMR with no other pricing data available. Why? My theory is that people just don't want to pay book (SMR) value for cards.

If SMR goes up or down in price, I believe that VCP will go up or down in relation to that, but the VCP will never equal SMR because nobody wants to pay book prices for a card.

If anybody else has a theory why VCP prices are lower than SMR prices I would love to hear it. Maybe it's a combination of factors, but I haven't heard any other theories.

Edited to add: Jeff, I'm not saying it's a legitimate pricing tool. It's not. It just gives us a price point from where we can negotiate down. Again, I use my new car sticker price as an example. Nobody pays that. Sure there are some rare cars that actually sell for more than the sticker, just like there are cards that sell from more than SMR. I'm not talking about those though. Who here has ever paid sticker price for a new car? Probably nobody. Because we know that's just a starting price point in which the dealer is willing to come down. Same thing with SMR.

[barrysloate]

VCP is not offering any opinions on what they think the market should be; they are merely reporting sales that have already transpired.

SMR, on the other hand, is estimating what they think the market should be. My guess is that they are lobbied by dealers and may not be entirely objective. All guides that estimate prices have a certain obligation to the people who support them, or they will lose those advertising dollars to a competitor. That's why I don't consider SMR to be legitimate price guide. Of course, there are some cases where they may in fact be pretty close to market, as that will happen.

[HRBAKER]

David,

You're saying that on the 99% actual prices are less bc people use the SMR and always want to pay less than the guide. I'm saying that the same prices are lower most likey bc not many people even use SMR bc it's really not taken seriously by very many people. The fact that the SMR prices are higher is just reflective of how out of touch it might if it were in fact used and for the very reasons Barry mentions above IMO. We are in agreement that it is not a legitimate pricing tool. It's an advertising slick masquerading as a price guide.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

David,

You're saying that on the 99% actual prices are less bc people use the SMR and always want to pay less than the guide. I'm saying that the same prices are lower most likey bc not many people even use SMR bc it's really not taken seriously by very many people. The fact that the SMR prices are higher is just reflective of how out of touch it might if it were in fact used and for the very reasons Barry mentions above IMO. We are in agreement that it is not a legitimate pricing tool. It's an advertising slick masquerading as a price guide.

Hello, Jeff. If SMR is a advertising slick masquerading as a price guide and not to be taken seriously, then why do the advertisers keep advertising in it? In other words, if it weren't being read by many, many folks, why would the advertisers keep wasting their money if they weren't getting any bang for their buck? The advertisers must see some value in spending their advertising dollars with SMR (unless SMR offers FREE ad spaces that I don't know about).

Nobody has yet to offer a theory as to why VCP is 99% lower than SMR on their prices. Again, SMR was out years before VCP, so people were paying less than book for years before there was anything else to compare to.

[barrysloate]

To continue Jeff's point, SMR has the same access to pricing as any of us. There is no reason for their prices to be inaccurate unless the people responsible are lazy or careless, and I doubt they are either of these. But there is obviously some reason why certain prices are not even remotely attuned to the market.

I know that when business is bad, dealers want to see very high catalog prices so that they can make some sales. And when the market is hot it's tough to buy, so lower prices may work better for them. I've always found, in any collectibles field, that price guides can't be trusted to provide accurate information.

The beauty of what VCP does is it has no opinion whatsoever about the market. If a card sells for $135.22, that's the price it will post. It doesn't matter if they feel it might be too high or too low. It will be up to the user of VCP to make that determination.

[HRBAKER]

Hi David,
Good question. I have to assume that circulation numbers for the SMR are large enough for most of them to see it as cost effective. I have no doubt that many people pick up and look at and read a SMR. I am not sure however how many of those folks give the pricing any creedence at all (i.e., see it as a starting point to negotiate down from).

And David, I could be wrong.

I also think that Barry hit the nail on the head for the differences in the prices btw the two, one is based of verifiable results and the other on ?????
I see it like this; VCP is like the stock page in the WSJ and the SMR is more like Pravda.

[barrysloate]

Doesn't everybody who becomes a member of PSA, and I believe that is a requirement to have cards graded by them, automatically get a subscription to SMR? As such, it has a very wide readership. It would make perfect sense for dealers and auction houses to advertise there, especially those that typically handle a lot of PSA graded cards. There are also some articles, albeit not always that interesting, as well as the price guide. The fact that it is not accurate, well that's another story. But I bet a ton of collectors read it, thus making it a great place to advertise.

And David, I think you have one thing backwards: I wouldn't be asking why VCP prices are lower than SMR's, but why SMR's are higher than VCP's. VCP has no control over what they publish. If a thousand dollar card sells for fifty bucks, that's what they are obligated to publish. It's SMR that makes the determination regarding what price to post.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by vintagetoppsguy

SMR was out years before VCP came into existence. And for years people were paying less than SMR with no other pricing data available. Why? My theory is that people just don't want to pay book (SMR) value for cards.

...

If anybody else has a theory why VCP prices are lower than SMR prices I would love to hear it. Maybe it's a combination of factors, but I haven't heard any other theories.

I think a lot of people were ignoring SMR - I know I was. I look at VCP, ebay results, and major auction house results. So my thought is that VCP is lower than SMR because VCP reflect reality. When I see a seller mention SMR price to justify his huge mark-up over reality, I scratch my head and think, "so what?".

[BobbyVCP]

I picked a set that should appeal to vintagetoppsguy and that is the 1955 Topps all in PSA 8 to compare SMR to VCP.

.............PSA ......................... VCP
1 Dusty Rhodes 300 ................ 235.81
2 Ted Williams 2000 ................ 1951.38
3 Art Fowler 650 ................ 634.82
4 Al Kaline 400 ................ 360.06
5 Jim Gilliam 325 ................ 321.66
6 Stan Hack Manager 110 ................ 87.11
7 Jim Hegan 950 ................ 1016.66
8 Hal Smith 550 ................ 795
9 Bob Miller 80 ................ 52.37
10 Bob Keegan 815 ................ 745
11 Ferris Fain 80 ................ 226
12 Jake Thies 80 ................ 49
13 Fred Marsh 80 ................ 46.46
14 Jim Finigan 80 ................ 117.63
15 Jim Pendleton 80 ................ 52.49
16 Roy Sievers 80 ................ 423.93
17 Bobby Hofman 80 ................ 47.25
18 Russ Kemmerer 80 ................ 217.75
19 Billy Herman 365 ................ 383.36
20 Andy Carey 700 ................ 925
21 Alex Grammas 80 ................ 56
22 Bill Skowron 165 ................ 118
23 Jack Parks 475 ................ 540.5
24 Hal Newhouser (HOF) 900 ................ 1022.5
25 Johnny Podres 1500 ................ 1610
26 Dick Groat 875 ................ 1774.29
27 Billy Gardener 80 ................ 51.99
28 Ernie Banks 515 ................ 589.42
29 Herman Wehmeier 80 ................ 133.49
30 Vic Power 250 ................ 278.9
31 Warren Spahn 375 ................ 423.92
32 Ed McGhee 225 ................ 195.08
33 Tom Qualters 325 ................ 283.19
34 Wayne Terwilliger 225 ................ 250.7
35 Dave Jolly 80 ................ 49.87
36 Leo Kiely 225 ................ 211.54
37 Joe Cunningham 80 ................ 57.81
38 Bob Turley 110 ................ 72.78
39 Bill Glynn 80 ................ 282.83
40 Don Hoak 200 ................ 307.26
41 Chuck Stobbs 80 ................ 54.27
42 Windy McCall 80 ................ 52.7
43 Harvey Haddix 100 ................ 59.86
44 Corky Valentine 80 ................ 51.24
45 Hank Sauer 100 ................ 60.19
46 Ted Kazanski 80 ................ 51.53
47 Hank Aaron 985 ................ 977.38
48 Bob Kennedy 80 ................ 49.43
49 J. W. Porter 325 ................ 310.07
50 Jackie Robinson 875 ................ 907.57
51 Jim Hughes 80 ................ 64.17
52 Bill Tremel 80 ................ 54.21
53 Bill Taylor 80 ................ 53.28
54 Lou Limmer 80 ................ 67.37
55 Rip Repulski 80 ................ 61.65
56 Ray Jablonski 80 ................ 53.62
57 Billy O'Dell 315 ................ 318
58 Jim Rivera 375 ................ 406.33
59 Gair Allie 80 ................ 73.36
60 Dean Stone 80 ................ 51.57
61 Spook Jacobs 80 ................ 77.52
62 Thornton Kipper 80 ................ 87.87
63 Joe Collins 550 ................ 974
64 Gus Triandos 185 ................ 206.75
65 Ray Boone 100 ................ 74.59
66 Ron Jackson 80 ................ 212
67 Wally Moon 100 ................ 55.02
68 Jim Davis 80 ................ 44.42
69 Ed Bailey 80 ................ 49.99
70 Al Rosen 200 ................ 198
71 Ruben Gomez 80 ................ 50.26
72 Karl Olson 80 ................ 82.95
73 Jack Shepard 80 ................ 47.08
74 Bob Borkowski 80 ................ 42.08
75 Sandy Amoros 165 ................ 147.16
76 Howie Pollett 80 ................ 51.44
77 Arnold Portocarrero 275 ................ 308
78 Gordon Jones 225 ................ 342.92
79 Danny Schell 80 ................ 46.92
80 Bob Grim (R) 325 ................ 325
81 Gene Conley 80 ................ 237.92
82 Chuck Harmon 80 ................ 149.26
83 Tom Brewer 80 ................ 89.5
84 Camilo Pascual 185 ................ 170.99
85 Don Mossi 100 ................ 61.47
86 Bill Wilson 80 ................ 51.95
87 Frank House 80 ................ 55.19
88 Bob Skinner 100 ................ 89.5
89 Joe Frazier 225 ................ 330.87
90 Karl Spooner 80 ................ 71.23
91 Milt Bolling 80 ................ 68.65
92 Don Zimmer 550 ................ 542.33
93 Steve Bilko 80 ................ 51.41
94 Reno Bertoia 80 ................ 72.75
95 Preston Ward 80 ................ 59
96 Charlie Bishop 80 ................ 54.99
97 Carlos Paula 80 ................ 45.08
98 Johnny Riddle 80 ................ 46.05
99 Frank Leja 80 ................ 47.42
100 Monte Irvin 1425 ................ 1407.77
101 Johnny Gray 200 ................ 207.09
102 Wally Westlake 80 ................ 45.49
103 Charlie White 80 ................ 49.66
104 Jack Harshman 80 ................ 47.52
105 Chuck Diering 80 ................ 70
106 Frank Sullivan 375 ................ 371.48
107 Curt Roberts 80 ................ 59.66
108 Rube Walker 80 ................ 73.83
109 Ed Lopat 385 ................ 468.19
110 Gus Zernial 80 ................ 70.99
111 Bob Milliken 80 ................ 67.12
112 Nelson King 80 ................ 47.08
113 Harry Brecheen 80 ................ 49.62
114 Lou Ortiz 80 ................ 51.5
115 Ellis Kinder 80 ................ 65.34
116 Tom Hurd 80 ................ 49.66
117 Mel Roach 80 ................ 42.6
118 Bob Purkey 80 ................ 52.73
119 Bob Lennon 80 ................ 65.5
120 Ted Kluszewski 220 ................ 149.34
121 Bill Renna 80 ................ 59.17
122 Carl Sawatski 80 ................ 51.74
123 Sandy Koufax 2500 ................ 2522.07
124 Harmon Killebrew 715 ................ 812.77
125 Ken Boyer (R) 265 ................ 269.52
126 Dick Hall 80 ................ 56.7
127 Dale Long (R) 100 ................ 63.49
128 Ted Lepcio 80 ................ 42.68
129 Elvin Tappe 80 ................ 45.55
130 Mayo Smith 80 ................ 36.09
131 Grady Hatton 80 ................ 48.16
132 Bob Trice 80 ................ 58.02
133 Dave Hoskins 80 ................ 63.75
134 Joe Jay 80 ................ 47.51
135 Johnny O'Brien 80 ................ 56.01
136 Bunky Stewart 80 ................ 53.91
137 Harry Elliott 80 ................ 91.96
138 Ray Herbert 80 ................ 50.52
139 Steve Kraly 80 ................ 62.03
140 Mel Parnell 80 ................ 48.13
141 Tom Wright 80 ................ 42
142 Jerry Lynch 80 ................ 49.36
143 Dick Schofield 80 ................ 66.55
144 Joe Amalfitano 80 ................ 55.76
145 Elmer Valo 80 ................ 78.96
146 Dick Donovan 80 ................ 55
147 Laurin Pepper 80 ................ 53.68
148 Hal Brown 80 ................ 58.47
149 Ray Crone 80 ................ 52.67
150 Mike Higgins 80 ................ 55.87
151 Red Kress 95 ................ 92.98
152 Harry Agganis (R) 550 ................ 491.67
153 Bud Podbielan 95 ................ 53.08
154 Willie Miranda 95 ................ 78.38
155 Eddie Mathews (HOF) 385 ................ 350.39
156 Joe Black 400 ................ 384
157 Bob Miller 95 ................ 69.5
158 Tom Carroll 150 ................ 153.75
159 Johnny Schmitz 95 ................ 68
160 Ray Narleski 95 ................ 99.51
161 Chuck Tanner (R) 220 ................ 181.38
162 Joe Coleman 150 ................ 113.39
163 Faye Throneberry 150 ................ 72.25
164 Roberto Clemente (R) (HOF) 5750 ................ 5421.45
165 Don Johnson 150 ................ 132.5
166 Hank Bauer 265 ................ 265.7
167 Tom Casagrande 150 ................ 241.26
168 Duane Pillette 150 ................ 122.25
169 Bob Oldis 150 ................ 119.98
170 Jim Pearce 150 ................ 78.44
171 Dick Brodowski 150 ................ 116.66
172 Frank Baumholtz 150 ................ 82.49
173 Bob Kline 150 ................ 97.32
174 Rudy Minarcin 150 ................ 91.6
176 Norm Zauchin 495 ................ 615
177 Jim Robertson 150 ................ 122.5
178 Bobby Adams 150 ................ 204.16
179 Jim Bolger 275 ................ 393.67
180 Clem Labine 325 ................ 332.58
181 Roy McMillan 150 ................ 163.85
182 Humberto Robinson 150 ................ 199
183 Tony Jacobs 615 ................ 582
184 Harry Perkowski 150 ................ 84.24
185 Don Ferrarese 150 ................ 88.17
187 Gil Hodges 385 ................ 371.97
188 Charlie Silvera 150 ................ 101.93
189 Phil Rizzuto (HOF) 465 ................ 423.42
190 Gene Woodling 235 ................ 238.71
191 Eddie Stanky Manager 235 ................ 164.16
192 Jim Delsing 465 ................ 510.27
193 Johnny Sain 285 ................ 176.66
194 Willie Mays 1300 ................ 1335.25
195 Ed Roebuck 875 ................ 816.48
196 Gale Wade 150 ................ 186.26
197 Al Smith 415 ................ 799.8
198 Yogi Berra 850 ................ 845.15
199 Bert Hamric 150 ................ 162.5
200 Jackie Jensen 220 ................ 154.51
201 Sherman Lollar 615 ................ 635.54
202 Jim Owens 450 ................ 637.34
204 Frank Smith 375 ................ 356
205 Gene Freese (R) 910 ................ 834.89
206 Pete Daley 435 ................ 618.8
207 Bill Consolo 650 ................ 907.97
208 Ray Moore 310 ................ 271
210 Duke Snider (HOF) 2250 ................ 2156.55
................
TOTAL 58400 ................ 59584.67

The left is SMR and Right is VCP. So if 99% of the time SMR is higher then VCP why is it VCP has a higher value for the whole set versus SMR? And in the set of 206 cards SMR is higher then VCP on 146 cards. The main reason for this is there blanket $80 value for the common cards that in most cases are only worth closer to $50. You can also see for yourself that they really missed the boat on a lot of the tougher common cards in the set.

So his theory in my book is not even close to reality.

[wonkaticket]

Bobby do you not pull auction prices? I looked thru your site and it seemed you were missing some bigger auction items almost as if they never went off?

Curious that's all.

John

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

Sure David some people look at SMR and they even start threads comparing the two. That doesn't mean a significant number in the overall scheme of things regard it as a "legitimate" pricing tool. I'm not convinced there are.

+1