Will set collectors dry up the supply?

[glchen]

I think in most cases, market forces will always ensure that there is some supply. That is, as availability starts to "dry up," prices will increase for those cards. At some point, the owners of those cards will decide that these prices are too good and sell them. There will be exceptions of course where the pops for certain cards are simply too miniscule and the owners don't need the money.

[Section103]

I think there are more people on this board that are concerned that the buyers will dry up over a longer period time.

[sandmountainslim]

The collectors (us) will eventually die and their sets will be split up in the marketplace over and over again. Imagine how many collectors the typical pre-war card has already been thru

[ScottFandango]

Originally Posted by sandmountainslim

The collectors (us) will eventually die and their sets will be split up in the marketplace over and over again. Imagine how many collectors the typical pre-war card has already been thru

Man that's depressing

[frankbmd]

will someone please help me complete my sets?

[sportscardpete]

You know what I can't wait for?


The prices of nicer t206's goes up too much and the majority of the collectors decide to switch to the caramel and bakery sets.

Then caramel prices will rise and all the caramel collectors who refuse to sell at depressed prices currently will begin to unload their cards (hint hint thats a lot of cards). There can be a strong argument that a lot of caramel cards today are being kept in hiding because prices for them are too low.

Then caramel prices will become too expensive and t206 prices will come back down.


Everyone will start selling their caramel cards and move back into t206's.


Ladies and gentlemen, that's called a cycle.

Is it too early in the morning for deep thought?

[jefferyepayne]

It also seems like as long as the split up value of a set is worth more than the set as a whole, there will be incentive for set collectors to split sets up when they decide to sell.

I personally have always scratched my head at the notion that a complete set is worth less than the individual cards. I understand the whole "carrying cost" argument for common cards and how inventory works for dealers but in most antiques and collectibles, complete sets of things garner a premium when they are difficult to put together. I haven't compared set prices to individual card prices for very old card sets but would hope that at some point there is a premium for complete sets.

Is that now true for some sets or not? Is there a trend toward or away from sets having a premium? Just curious.

jeff

[mrvster]

Pete...

Your cycle theory is plausable.....but, T206 have always trended up....i think if anything they would just level off, or trend up at a very slow rate....just recently, they have trended exponentially higher than average i presume....i do beleive these cards are a good investment....history has shown this well over 100 years....a timeless popularity fuels this set is almost an anomaly onto itself, that's what fuels it.....part of the mystic,....


t206 and caramel cards inmho are on two different levels....i m sure other collectors would agree....it's been also fueled by the wags...no comparison...ok ok shoeless joe...blah blah blah.... the ruths....the 33 naps....ojs .... etc etc...

i have not studied statistics in a few years, but i would love to see some hard core numbers/random samples and regression analysis to the ror on t206...historically........that would just solidify what i have seen in my micro cosm of a 14 year general"feel" for them...

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

You know what I can't wait for?


The prices of nicer t206's goes up too much and the majority of the collectors decide to switch to the caramel and bakery sets.

Then caramel prices will rise and all the caramel collectors who refuse to sell at depressed prices currently will begin to unload their cards (hint hint thats a lot of cards). There can be a strong argument that a lot of caramel cards today are being kept in hiding because prices for them are too low.

Then caramel prices will become too expensive and t206 prices will come back down.


Everyone will start selling their caramel cards and move back into t206's.


Ladies and gentlemen, that's called a cycle.

Is it too early in the morning for deep thought?

Funny thing is, there are those who follow the prices and buy high, then sell low, then repeat.

[Ladder7]

Originally Posted by ScottFandango

Man that's depressing

Not for us buyers!