Who is the biggest culprit?

[36GoudeyMan]

FWIW, I think a great deal of blame is placed at the feet of the card companies and the major league sports and unions that licensed too many products. They killed the golden goose by overfeeding it.

When sports card collecting boomed (about when Topps stopped being the only legit choice, in the early 1980s), cards became innovative and interesting and visually appealing. Buyers (still mostly kids) appreciated the competitive look of the new manufacturers' products. When one or two experimented with short-subsets, insert cards, redemption cards, etc., collecting became a lottery (I don't care what that idiot judge in the midwest (?) said -- kids ripped open packs looking for the valuable insert cards, not to find the #377 card they need to finish their sets; it was gambling, pure and simple).

Once buying and searching packs, boxes, cases, became a money-making proposition, kids got squeezed out physically and monetarily. And then there were just too many cards to collect. I heard a stat a while back that I think is illustrative: in 1955 There was one mainstream Mickey Mantle card. In 1997 there were 135 Mantle cards issued by various manufacturers, all in subsets, chase cards, etc. The packs became valuable, and then were priced accordingly, even if value was generated by way of a manufactured scarcity (such as the new Sport Kings cards).

The market got overheated, flooded, and expensive, and kids could no longer keep up with the dealers who would buy up and break cases to find chase cards, then sell them for more than the cases were sold for. Point in illustration: I remember very clearly a dealer friend breaking cases of some basketball card to find the "insert" Shaq & Jabbar card (and he knew how to count the boxes down from the top to find the right box). The rest of the case was, essentially, trash, so he pretty much handed it out like candy. The Shaq card sold for more than he spent on the case. I know there are many more examples of this.

So I say #5, FWIW.

[barrysloate]

Of course, as Jeff and Peter said, fraud in this hobby is through the roof. That's going to cause a lot of collectors to take up a new hobby.

[jefferyepayne]

And not just kids ripping packs open looking for inserts. I stopped going to our local card shop as I got tired of listening to blowhard adults talking about some 1/1 auto card they pulled out of a $100 pack and then flipped on ebay to make some cash.

Also pretty depressing to watch people come into the shop with what looked like their paycheck and buy tons of pack. They'd rip them open, find nothing of great value, and then sit there with their head in their hands wondering how they were going to explain what happened to their wife. If you don't think that's a gambling habit, you haven't watched people at 7-eleven play scratch-off lottery games.

jeff

[sycks22]

I remember back in 1990 when the Thomas Leaf (my favorite player) was at a local card shop and they were asking full book $80 for it. My bro and I both wanted a new bike for our b-days and I assured my dad I would get a Giant impactor ( $100 bike + Thomas) while my bro would get the higher valued bike (diamondback tailwhip, $250). Those were the days when the only chance you had at finding a Brett rookie was one with 12 creases and a corner missing for $20 and you still debated getting it. Once the packs hit $4+ everyone started getting out it appears. Every now and then I'll buy a couple packs at target, but after getting 3-4 cards for $5 it's depressing. I kinda of blame the downfall of the hobby on card companies that need that 1 of 1 item to compete with the other 25 companies. I remember back in 1990 when Donruss Elite came out and they were numbered out of 10,000 and you were the man if you owned one. Now every other card is numbered out of 100 and nobody cares.

[dougscats]

Some very interesting answers and good points,
but I'm sort of stunned that everyone seems to accept the premiss:

Baseball card collecting is on the decline?

Funny, my guess would be that there is more money, far more money, being spent on baseball cards every year now than ever before, and that there are probably more collectors as well.
Not that there's not plenty wrong with the hobby.
Nor that kids and modern baseball card collecting are much different than they used to be.
Nor that, ironically, a lot of the reasons given for a decline are also reasons for an increase in the business end of the hobby, as several post-ers pointed out [Ebay being the best example of technology].

I also see prices stabilizing and much greater expertise on behalf of the average collector [because of forums like Net54, for example].
These are positive developments.
And the competition for cards is greater than ever [why it's so tough to get a steal on ebay anymore, for instance].

Hope I'm not spoiling this thread [as I'm enjoying it], but I'm just not sure if I agree that the hobby is on the decline.
I do think kids' foci have changed, though, and this could lead to big trouble for the long-term future of the hobby [especially once there are fewer dads who enjoyed collecting to do it with them].
Personally, I have little interest in modern cards [partially because they seem so overproduced], but even that overproduction points out that there's an awful lot of money still being spent on them at this point.

Enough,

Doug

[JasonD08]

I've said it before and I will say it again..........I have the solution, topps should buy out Upper Deck, Fleer, Donruss, Score, Prism, whoever, and go to one set WITH wax wrappers and bubble gum inside like the old days, print the sets in series with NO traded sets, and make the 7th series your rookie class and SPs with 40 man guys. 1 SET. No Heritage, jersey cards, etc........if they want to insert a subset of autos, or auto jerseys of modern players (actives) only I am 100% for that. Take away the competition and make it fun and affordable and ATTAINABLE for all kids and adults alike. Cut unneeded employees, downsize and be more profitable.

Jason

[JasonD08]

Doug

The only reason more money may be spent now is because it is an adult hobby and generally older adults with extra money plus the fact the cost of everything is exponentially higher. I would guess the number of collectors are not growing.

Jason

[Orioles1954]

Originally Posted by JasonD08

I've said it before and I will say it again..........I have the solution, topps should buy out Upper Deck, Fleer, Donruss, Score, Prism, whoever, and go to one set WITH wax wrappers and bubble gum inside like the old days, print the sets in series with NO traded sets, and make the 7th series your rookie class and SPs with 40 man guys. 1 SET. No Heritage, jersey cards, etc........if they want to insert a subset of autos, or auto jerseys of modern players (actives) only I am 100% for that. Take away the competition and make it fun and affordable and ATTAINABLE for all kids and adults alike. Cut unneeded employees, downsize and be more profitable.

Jason

And Topps would shortly go out of business afterwards. For better or worse, the vast majority of modern collectors want multiple products per year. On Freedom Cardboard (the much, much bigger shiny version of Net54), there are several threads asking for Topps to not be the only licensed company anymore. It is "boring" that there were "only" 20ish baseball sets produced last year. Set collecting is dead. Why do we constantly feel the need to make sets attainable for kids when it's obvious that low-end products don't appeal to them.

[glchen]

I've been thinking about this for a while because there are always threads about the hobby in decline popping up regularly. I'm also starting to come around to the theory that the hobby is very healthy as it currently is and don't worry about the kids.

Everybody is worried since kids don't collect cards like they did when they were young. However, do we hear about card companies going out of business because they lose too much money printing cards? Nope (they only go out when they don't get licenses from MLB). So then the card companies must still be selling enough to do just fine even if they're selling to more adults these days then kids. Face it, as others have mentioned, kids have a lot of other entertainment options these days. That's just how it is.

Secondly, I read things such as Link postings from Heritage telling about record revenue in Sports Memorabilia and other collectibles like coins. Let's talk coins. According to that article Heritage had nearly 200 million in revenue last year in colin auctions (compared to 16+ million in Sports Collectibles). Those are huge numbers. Now how many kids these days do you know that collect coins? Heck, probably fewer than collect baseball cards! (Granted it is a lot cheaper to start a coin collection, like if you wanted to start w/ the 50 states quarter collection.) I'm not a coin collector, but I don't think those collectors are too worried about their hobby dying out.

Lastly, why do people really care about the hobby on the decline? Sure, it's boring if there are fewer and fewer people in the hobby to chat with and the fact that you are constantly losing an enormous wealth of knowledge in the hobby. However, if you are concerned about pricing dropping, that just means that there are more cards that you can afford to buy and put into your own collection. If you are worried about your own value of your collection going down because of resale value in the future, then go back to the article from Heritage and others which show that sales in the hobby are going up. No doubt that there are particular areas that are going down in value, but that's more reflective of collecting tastes changing which may be cyclical. You still have to be smart about buying cards (like not overpaying) for financial reasons, but the decline of the hobby will not be the reason why your collection has gone down in value.

[Danny Smith]

I totally agree with this. I love the hobby. I was out of it for a while and I am having a blast now with the availability of information and cards via the internet and at shows. My little kids love it too. They love opening packs and seeing their favorite teams and players. They also enjoy my vintage cards because they enjoy learning from me.

There are certainly issues with the hobby, as you have all pointed out but my own opinion is that the hobby as a whole is OK and definitely better than the past few years where there was a bit of an adjustment.

Very interesting thread indeed and I look forward to more discussion!

Originally Posted by dougscats

Some very interesting answers and good points,
but I'm sort of stunned that everyone seems to accept the premiss:

Baseball card collecting is on the decline?

Funny, my guess would be that there is more money, far more money, being spent on baseball cards every year now than ever before, and that there are probably more collectors as well.
Not that there's not plenty wrong with the hobby.
Nor that kids and modern baseball card collecting are much different than they used to be.
Nor that, ironically, a lot of the reasons given for a decline are also reasons for an increase in the business end of the hobby, as several post-ers pointed out [Ebay being the best example of technology].

I also see prices stabilizing and much greater expertise on behalf of the average collector [because of forums like Net54, for example].
These are positive developments.
And the competition for cards is greater than ever [why it's so tough to get a steal on ebay anymore, for instance].

Hope I'm not spoiling this thread [as I'm enjoying it], but I'm just not sure if I agree that the hobby is on the decline.
I do think kids' foci have changed, though, and this could lead to big trouble for the long-term future of the hobby [especially once there are fewer dads who enjoyed collecting to do it with them].
Personally, I have little interest in modern cards [partially because they seem so overproduced], but even that overproduction points out that there's an awful lot of money still being spent on them at this point.

Enough,

Doug

[novakjr]

6) Joey Farino

Sorry!!! Anyways, I'd say it's obviously a combination of everything listed, BUT I think one of the biggest contributing factors lies with the ballplayers. It comes from today's game having a great number of players that we either can't relate to, that are unapproachable and often times very unappreciative of the opportunity that they've been given by the game..

Also, the current dirt-digging state of the media would get some of the blame in my book as well. You rarely ever hear good stories about athletes nowadays. Mostly what you get is stories about drugs, spousal abuse, infidelity, latin ballplayers lying about their names and ages, and other assorted acts of general assholishness. But then again is it really the media's fault, or are modern athletes exactly what they've been exposed as?

[HistoricNewspapers]

We have cable TV, many video games, and the internet...with various ways to access all of them. That is baseball's competition, and card collecting's competition.

My kid spends his free time posting videos on YouTube, playing Xbox live with his friends(if you don't know what this is, it is a way to play video games with your friends while each is in their own house); and watching movies like Hall Pass on cable! He also plays travel baseball, but doesn't even watch baseball.

Back in the day, cards only had to compete with Andy Griffith, reading books, or playing board games.

If I were a 13 year old kid and was in my family room and choosing between reading a book, watching Andy Griffith, or collecting cards of my favorite sport...cards has a great shot of winning that battle.

If collecting and looking at cards is put up against seeing a great pair boobs on TV, or put up against getting to shoot people with scoped rifles on your TV while bantering with your friends on a headset....cards lose all the time.

[Goose]

Speaking as someone that bought cards as a kid in the mid/late 70's that now has 3 kids....

All 3 of our kids (boy 14, girl 11, girl 9) all enjoy buying packs of cards but the card co's have morphed the hobby into a lottery for adults....meaning you're simply buying a 3.00 pack at the chance of a "hit".

Back in the 70's my mom or dad would hand me a couple of bucks and I could buy 8 or more packs! Now today there's no way I'm handing my kid 25.00 to buy several packs of cards. If they're lucky I'll buy them ONE....and I won't even do that anymore due to the morons I see at the local Target fondling the individual packs trying to find the hits.

My son bought 2 A&G blasters the other night for 30.00 total. He ended up with a couple of decent hits and some Yankees but honestly I wouldn't give someone 5.00 for what he had pulled. Like I said it's like a lottery ticket.....

They've priced the kids out and seemingly don't care. Must be enough adults hooked to keep the "hobby" alive.