Market trends and fluctuations? (T206)

[sportscardpete]

If you bought Broadleaf 350's a little over a year ago, give yourself a pat on the back... They have gone up significantly in value over the past two years...

[sreader3]

I agree with much of what has been said.

T206 commons and HOFers with common backs (Piedmont, Sweet Caporal)have been essentially flat for about five years after a huge run-up.

When I reentered the T206 market in 2003, you could get PSA 5 Piedmont or Sweet Caporal commons on eBay for about $70 each and PSA 6 commons for about $140 each. By 2006, you were paying $100 and $200, respectively, for these same cards--which is not too different from today's prices. Maybe now it's more like $90 and $180 for TRUE commons, but collectors are more sophisticated about scarcities so more difficult commons still sell at the 2006 prices or higher.

On the other hand, collector sophistication has caused scarcer backs (anything from EPDG on up) to go through the roof since 2006. For example, prices for EPDG, Cycle and American Beauty have increased maybe 50%, prices for Brown Hindu and Carolina Brights have at least doubled, and prices for Broad Leaf and other very scarce backs have at least quadrupled.

[ls7plus]

I think you'll see continued growth in T206's, because it is such a classic set, even though off-grade examples are far from rare. But this will be over time, and there will be some ups and downs along the way, rather than anything like linear, upward growth. Our hobby has clearly been growing--take a look at some of the auction catalogues from the bigger auction companies of today, versus the early 2000's. There is no comparison in the volume and diversity of the lots offered.

Collectible coins have risen in value in cycles, with the popularity of any given series gaining and waning over time. Generally, however, the down end of the cycle for a truly classic, collectible item leaves it higher than when the up cycle started, albeit lower than its peak. I recently reread portions of Paul Green and Kit Kiefer's 1994 "101 Ways to Make Money in the Trading Card Market RIGHT NOW!" mostly for laughs, as most of the time, these two hadn't a clue concerning lasting value (one of the short chapters was titled, "Sell black and whites," because black and white cards "just do not sell." Perhaps the recent buyers of the T210 Jackson at nearly $200,000, the ExMt and VgEx+ Ruth rookies at $100,000 and $75,000 should have been so advised before their purchases!). Anyway, the authors commented therein at that time that T206 commons in Vg, despite the figures given in price guides of about $12, actually changed hands at only $2 to $5. I haven't been a member of PSA for some time, so the info I have from that source is not the most up to date, but a relatively recent SMR pegged the value of such cards at $50 each.

The economy has dimished disposable income, which has hurt the more available classic cards (although we all know of rare and significant cards that have soared) in the short term, but I think you'll see definite long-term growth that will be worthwhile, if not spectacular for these. Just don't buy them today and think you'll be able to flip them for significant profits 2-3 years from now.

Just my $1.50's worth!

Best always,

Larry

[Ericc22]

Thanks for the feedback everyone. So my understanding is that prices have stayed steady for common backs for about 5 years. (Wish I could say the same for my stocks....) And rare backs are increasingly more valuable. The general expectation is that prices will stay flat for at least a while.

I am assuming no site tracks a bundle, over time? Again, just curious here. It would be kind of easy for VCP eg to track the changes in a card bundle but I guess they don't do such a thing.

Thanks!

Eric

[mrvster]

great input all!!...Larry, well thought out...


My 2 cents....t206 rarities (rare backs, magie, wag, scraps, hofers, etc)...will always appreciate.....more common t206 to see modest growth over the years...

the set is highly collectable fueled by the "holy grail" of cards, wags...will always be popular...the set is obviously fun to collect and enough cards are avaible to put "sets" together....

interest+collectabilty+rarity+condition=price
(supply + demand)
imo..

simple economics to follow

Business Major sorry....

[MooseWithFleas]

Agree with what many on here are saying. I could see there being a setback at one point if they ever deem the Gretzky Wagner trimmed. From there, the next best Wagner will become the Holy Grail and appreciate like it has done before.