T206 backs will continue to go up?

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Anything that rises too much too quickly is highly likely to fall at some point.

I think Barry said it best so far although I'd replace the words "Highly Likely" to "Will" fall at some point.

[barrysloate]

This is an interesting poll because each time I check the results are split nearly right down the middle.

[sportscardpete]

I probably have the least amount of experience on this board, but to my understanding are Broadleaf 350's even that rare? Brown Hindus?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

This is an interesting poll because each time I check the results are split nearly right down the middle.

I wonder if most of the yes answers are the back collectors?

I should add that I do think it's human nature and ok to be protective of what we collect. I am protective of things I collect.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Leon

I wonder if most of the yes answers are the back collectors?

Good point. The guys who collect them say "yes", and the ones who don't vote "no". Maybe that question should have been part of the poll, because it is important information.

[barrysloate]

To answer Pete's question, brown Hindus and BL350 are not rare and are currently selling for obscene prices. That doesn't mean they won't get more expensive, but they seem to be grossly overpriced. But I don't make the market.

[marcdelpercio]

The most remarkable to me have been the brown Hindus. I posted a few lower grade commons about a year ago, looking for around $100 each (cash or trade) and had no takers. Now I'm seeing similar cards go for 3-4x that amount. I have always thought that some of the middle-tier backs (EPDG, Tolstoi, Cycle, AB) were a bit undervalued so I thought a slight price adjustment was due for those. However I do think that the outrageous prices on some of the others will come back down to earth, probably just as rapidly as they rose.

[ChiefBenderForever]

And even though it's just one person who is working on the master set, prices immediatley started to go up when he started buying anything he didn't have. With several people looking for cards for him how many were bidding against each other trying to get the cards he needed ? Again just one person but one person can make a huge difference in price and create an inflated situation where everyone starts jumping on the bandwagon driving up demand/price.

[Gradedcardman]

I agree with Barry that at some point the prices on the rarer backs will come down. The mid level backs I think will level off and continue to carry a premium but not more than a 2x-4x depending on player. Supply and demand ultimately decide the value of everything, in time it will all sort itself out.

[Vegas-guy]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Good point. The guys who collect them say "yes", and the ones who don't vote "no". Maybe that question should have been part of the poll, because it is important information.

I don't collect the backs and I voted "yes" There will always be people looking for the "rare" things. And as more and more people start to collect they will only go up because of demand. Just my .02 cents

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Vegas-guy

I don't collect the backs and I voted "yes" There will always be people looking for the "rare" things. And as more and more people start to collect they will only go up because of demand. Just my .02 cents

Reg- I agree rare things do tend to go up in value, but some of the backs showing a huge increase aren't rare. Drums and Uzits are very difficult backs indeed; brown Hindu, EPDG, American Beauty are not. They are less common than Piedmont and Sweet Cap, but they aren't rare.

Edited to add that with regard to Leon's Young portrait with Brown Hindu back, that's kind of special and I would say there's a good chance it will hold its value. Seems to me there will always be a strong market for a card like that.

[Ronnie73]

I voted yes, and I am a T206 back collector. I think they will continue to rise in price but then fall back a bit. There has been alot of interest during the past few years in the T206 set with it now being 100 years old and Topps putting out their newer version of the T206's with original inserts. I just feel that there are alot of newer T206 collectors that didn't pay much attention to them before and that their extra bids and interest may be driving up the prices.

[smtjoy]

IMO the rapid rise in value is most likely a collector with deep pockets has decided to work on a T-206 Master Set, when this person is bidding all out for every tough back, they all start to go up crazy but in time as they have more and more of the mid backs they will go down but if they are going all out for every drum and uzit that hits the market, prices on the hardest ones might not go down for a long, long time, or really till the day the collection sells or they stop buying.

As a back collector in M101-4/5's if one whale collector decided to buy every Gimbels, HtH, Everybodys, etc and work on a master set of all backs of all players, because these sets only have like 0-2 copies of each card the prices would rise fast and stay there. In effect all the type, team and player collectors would be locked out and would drive the market up pretty fast. If I can't get a Mall Theater for $500 then next time ill bid $600, that doesn't work then the next time $650 and so on until a dupe shows up if never they just keep going up.

[bcbgcbrcb]

My guess is wishful thinking on the part of those who collect them.

If a poll was taken about the future value of HOF RC's, I would say that they would go up because that is what I collect. I'm sure that others who have no interest in those cards (or actually despise them as I know some collectors do) would anticipate a decline just as I would for the rare back T206's, which I have no interest in.

[Bicem]

HOF rookies is so diverse though, some issues will go up and some will go down.

[ChiefBenderForever]

Sellers- Yes
Back collectors with a huge stash- Yes
Buyers- NO

Reality- Buy what you like and can afford and it won't matter

[barrysloate]

Does anyone remember the mania a few years back for D304's? Remember when Goodwin broke up a set and cards like Matty and Cy Young in PSA 5 or 6 were going for about 40K each? What are they worth today?

[z28jd]

Originally Posted by ChiefBenderForever

Sellers- Yes
Back collectors with a huge stash- Yes
Buyers- NO

Reality- Buy what you like and can afford and it won't matter

I voted yes and don't really fit into any of those categories. I have a lot of t206s but only have 1-3 examples of most backs that aren't common and havent collected them for years. I think the prices will go up on most but not all of the backs and people say, well I can't afford a drum but I can get a bunch of other backs for that same price, and eventually it trickles down to people who can't afford Hindu's so they go after cycle, EPDG, etc.

Basically my long answer would be the rare stuff stays high, mid stuff might go up a little but the slightly tough ones will see a big increase