T206 backs will continue to go up?

[Leon]

It seems one of the few areas of pre-war collecting that has really gone up meteorically is the collecting of rare T206 backs. Even some that haven't been considered rare are rising with the other ones. Do you think they will continue to go up? Come down?

[Gradedcardman]

I have been doing my own research for about 6 months and have continued to see the collectors beating down the doors and records for backs other than the common 4 (OM, SC, PB and Piedmont). The common 4, of course, is NOT inclusive of the Factory 42 Piedmont. With the rarest being so hard to get a hold of and pricey, it seems the next 10 in some form of order are rising. Fun times to be trying to collect Player backs !!

Looking for Schlei Portrait Backs !!

[barrysloate]

Anything that rises too much too quickly is highly likely to fall at some point.

[3-2-count]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Anything that rises too much too quickly is highly likely to fall at some point.

I think Barry said it best so far although I'd replace the words "Highly Likely" to "Will" fall at some point.

[barrysloate]

This is an interesting poll because each time I check the results are split nearly right down the middle.

[sportscardpete]

I probably have the least amount of experience on this board, but to my understanding are Broadleaf 350's even that rare? Brown Hindus?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

This is an interesting poll because each time I check the results are split nearly right down the middle.

I wonder if most of the yes answers are the back collectors?

I should add that I do think it's human nature and ok to be protective of what we collect. I am protective of things I collect.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Leon

I wonder if most of the yes answers are the back collectors?

Good point. The guys who collect them say "yes", and the ones who don't vote "no". Maybe that question should have been part of the poll, because it is important information.

[ChiefBenderForever]

Sellers- Yes
Back collectors with a huge stash- Yes
Buyers- NO

Reality- Buy what you like and can afford and it won't matter

[ChiefBenderForever]

What do they say, 'What goes up.....

It wouldn't take very much for a slide to take place, then a surgence of backs flooding the market going for much less than current values. As always, only takes two people to drive up a card, but have noticed some good deals lately and just means that others already have that card.
I do think they will hold great value and not drop like the E series but again doesn't take much to sway movement one way or the other. When it's hot it's hot, when it's not.............

[barrysloate]

T206 rare backs have been in demand for as long as I've been in the hobby. There was never a time that collectors didn't go after them. Despite that, I've seen them rise and fall over the years. It will probably happen again. That's just the way the "Cycle" works.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

T206 rare backs have been in demand for as long as I've been in the hobby. There was never a time that collectors didn't go after them. Despite that, I've seen them rise and fall over the years. It will probably happen again. That's just the way the "Cycle" works.

In terms of rare backs of common players, I think Barry hit the nail right on the head. Thanks to the writings of Q. David Bowers in the coin field, the phenomena of cycles became well known. When the item in question is at least in the scarce to very scarce realm, however, even at the end of the cycle, when the value has drifted back downward, it usually ends up higher than when the up cycle started. This will likely be the case with even the rare backs of common T206'ers, in light of the very large number of people who collect T206.

On the other hand, if we're talking very rare backs of upper echelon HOF'ers like Cobb, Johnson, Mathewson, etc., these may well be less subject to the cycling phenomena, at least in terms of the magnitude of the up and down swings. Demand will remain very, very high, and nearly constant, with little lull in the action. Much of the demand will derive from true collectors, who will give such cards very good homes for many, many years, thereby reducing the available supply drastically, while, for the truly rare ones, doing little to satisfy still overwhelming demand. I believe these cards are still emerging in our hobby, and will continue to appreciate as highly valued collectibles do, at a compound rate of interest that will make their values seem truly amazing several decades from now.

I watched a new episode of "Chasing Classic Cars" last night (that I had previously recorded) which featured a 1967 Ferrari Luzzo that a then 41-year-old man had purchased new in Italy in that year for $4,500. Tack on another $1,000 for shipping it to the U.S., and his initial investment was $5500. The show's host/star, Wayne Carini, indicated that there were only 300-some made, and that the car's current value, after undergoing only a moderate restoration (the car was in very nice original shape) would be in the $700,000 to $800,000 range. That reflects a compound interest rate of appreciation of around 11%. The mega-stars of the T206's are the "Ferrari's" of card collecting, and I would expect the best of the best players, coupled with the rarest backs available, to do quite well over time, with perhaps little of the cycling effect (see the M-101 Ruth rookie for an analogous example, which has been on a nearly constant rise since at least the very early '90's).

Great post and best regards Leon,

Larry

[Leon]

Larry, that was a nice, well thought out post. I have to agree with you on it. Case in point. I am not really a T206 back collector more than any other backs, as I do collect backs in general. I always wanted one of the classic poses of Cy Young, his green portrait in T206. People will always know Young as the holder of the most wins record as well as the yearly Cy Young award for most wins. So, when a board member put this one on the BST I figured it was a nice one with great centering and focus, with a scarce back to boot, so bought it for about 2k. I don't know if it will go up much but I wouldn't expect it to go down in value, for all of the reasons mentioned.