Auction Houses - Showing Estimates

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

That does seem to be the case more often than not, but how does that make them look good when they're the ones making the inaccurate estimates in the first place? And how does that make buyers feel, now that they have paid more than the "experts" predicted the item would go for? How can that not have at least some depressing effect on the bidding when it's close to or past the high end of the estimate and bidders are trying to decide whether they should go another bid or not? I'm still struggling to understand the benefits of this common practice.

Most seasoned collectors will pay what they will based on experience and how badly they want the item. I pay very little attention to estimates. I have seen item estimates that were $500-$800 go for 15k, and not as bad the other way, but still quite far off. I think it does allow the auctioneers to say they beat the estimates. As a practice we don't do that in our auctions but I understand the philosophy. Kind of like the "best offers" being discussed on the other thread, just not that big of a deal.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Leon

Most seasoned collectors will pay what they will based on experience and how badly they want the item. I pay very little attention to estimates. I have seen item estimates that were $500-$800 go for 15k, and not as bad the other way, but still quite far off. I think it does allow the auctioneers to say they beat the estimates. As a practice we don't do that in our auctions but I understand the philosophy. Kind of like the "best offers" being discussed on the other thread, just not that big of a deal.

So the only purpose of estimates is so the auction houses can brag that the item beat the estimate they came up with?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

So the only purpose of estimates is so the auction houses can brag that the item beat the estimate they came up with?

Hi Hank
It's called "marketing" and yes, I think that is part of the reason, not all of the reason. Estimates can be a guide for less experienced folks, I guess, though they are often way off.

[barrysloate]

Estimates could be a useful tool, but most of them do not reflect the actual value of the piece in question. Typically, the estimate is low, so that the auction house can far surpass it.

But for an auction house that allows reserves, the estimate may offer a clue with regard to that reserve. Maybe a lot with a $4000-6000 estimate can't sell for less than a $4000 bid. Not sure about this, but it might have some merit.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Estimates could be a useful tool, but most of them do not reflect the actual value of the piece in question. Typically, the estimate is low, so that the auction house can far surpass it.

But for an auction house that allows reserves, the estimate may offer a clue with regard to that reserve. Maybe a lot with a $4000-6000 estimate can't sell for less than a $4000 bid. Not sure about this, but it might have some merit.

As others have pointed out, experienced buyers are paying no attention to the estimates. So that leaves inexperienced buyers--but if they are supposed to be guided by the low end as a floor, that means they are also being guided by the high end as a ceiling. And that's exactly what concerns me as a consignor. And Leon, what kind of marketing is it to consistently demonstrate an inability to estimate the actual value of the items in your auctions? Maybe I'm just obtuse, but I'm still not understanding the value of this practice to anybody involved.

[drc]

An essential problem with auction estimates is you can't be sure the auction is even trying to give accurate numbers. Accurate prices often isn't their intent. This alone makes them unreliable. I also think this makes them often unethical.

Even when they are way off, there's supposed to be objectivity in these estimates. They aren't supposed to be a PR tools. They aren't supposed to be fibs.

And there's nothing wrong with not having auction estimates.

[HRBAKER]

To me they serve several functions, all of which are purely marketing and none of which have much fact-related basis:

1. By providing a lower estimate it encourages people to bid, once people are engaged they are more likely to keep bidding. The more bidders the better chance an item has for selling for more.

2. As pointed out it allows the house to say they "exceeded, blew away, surpassed" the pre-auction estimate when in reality it often appears to be little more than a number pulled out of a hat to serve a purpose.

3. In some instances they may serve as a way to subtly communicate the level of the reserve (obviously the high end of the estimate).

I pay no attention to them, if I want something I am going to pay what I have to pay up to a point. The reserve has absolutely no impact on me unless it is leading others to bid against me.

Leon is right, it's marketng plain and simple, no science. It's another part of the snake oil charm of this hobby.