Are Baseball Cards Destined to Slowly Diminish in Value?

[Rich Klein]

Your dreams were your ticket out

In all seriousness, like I say on many occassions, Bruce is absolutely correct when it comes to high end merchandise. In just about any field; the highest end merchandise is not only going to maintain it's value but will grow exponetially higher than most other items.

For the rest of us mortals, the decision is a bit harder; the odds are real good that not all the value of cards will maintain. The longer we are away from when the cards were produced; the less we care about the Jim Qualls of the world. Thus, we do need a lower Barrier To Entry (BTE) to get collectors back into the game. I'm giong to use the National as an example. I may be a couple of dollars off here but stay with my point.

In 1984, The National was hend at the no longer existing Aspen Hotel in Parsipanny NJ. There was no fee to park and admission was somewhere between $3-5. One also received a free autograph, granted the best player was Bobby Thomson with the admittance if so desired.

Nowadays, the cheapest admission to get in is $18 -- (usually Sunday about noon it does become Free) and there are advanced MVP badges which gets one double the promo sets, some free autographs, etc. I think that cost is about $150 and yes it is worth it on many levels. But just like when our pack price went from 50 cents or so in 1991 for the basic packs to whatever some of the most expenisve packs are today --- and some go past $50 -- then we are shutting out future generations which is problematic.

Yes, even when packs were cheap -- people only wanted the good cards. At the store I used to frequent in the late 80's -- people would buy the 1985 packs and if Gooden, Clemens, Big Mac, E Davis, etc did not come out -- then the rest of the cards would be left on the counter. Same principle Adam brought up about the commons from his box after he sold the "chase" card. But again, the issue is the cost of entry -- whether it is to the National or to an unopened product.

So, unless we can get future generations in at a level they can afford, the hoddy many decrease just because there are less people entering because of the price.

Regards
Rich

[vargha]

Not to cause trouble . . . okay, I'm causing trouble. But did anyone ever figure out who comprises the rest of "we"?

[theseeker]

I was going to ask the very same thing.

Gettin back to the discussion at hand:

The last, large scale hobby participation of kids is the generation now entering their early thirties. They were the first generation to enter the hobby with an eye on investment, due to the excessive greed and shortsightedness of manufacturer's and dealer's. It has forever changed the hobby landscape. A large part of the longterm decline can be traced to how those late 80's/early 90's investments turned out, IMHO. It's still a hobby. My golf clubs are a much worse investment, yet are well worth the cost to me in terms of the pleasure I derive from their use. My card collecting hobby fits into the same basic category-- one of life's pleasant deversions. A balancing act to the serious stuff.

If the opinions of the posters here, on this topic, that fall into that early thirty-something demographic group are correct and the postwar cards have a drop in value due to their lack of interest, in favor of the prewar stuff, I'll happily jump in at the reduced prices. Although I am also not old enough to remember most of the 50's, 60's, and early 70's, I see the Topps series issued era as arguably the best of all time. I'll always feel a closer kinship to this era of early TV and classic radio than I ever could for anything from 1911. Then again, I'm not looking at it as an investment and can strictly allow my passions to rule.

In your early thirties and you have no interest in cards from the 60's and 70's because "you never saw them play?" Yet, there is interest among this age group in cards from the much more distant past? Sounds like investment still is the force leading the younger generation of card collector. It is, at the heart of the matter, resembling the cautionary tulip investment tale.

[itjclarke]

I' ve been reading this thread for a few days and had to chime in. I, like many of the others to post am in my 30's (34). Being this age I feel like I came from one of the last generations, who as small kids enjoyed the gum almost as much as the cards. I still have my old shoebox of circa 1980-1984 Topps cards, which also included 5 mysterious/AMAZING cards from a time prior to my existence, 1971. I doubt many people much younger kept and carried their collections around in shoeboxes.

I enjoyed bringing my box to school everyday, sticking cards to my desk, trading between classes, etc.. Loved my cards so much, I wrote my name on the back of most. Around 1986-1987 this changed for us. At this point we'd all upgraded to binders with plastic pages. People started coming to school with 1987 Topps Mark McGwires in sleeves, which in the Bay Area were selling for $7. It was amazing! There were a few dozen hot cards that were worth the cost of 2, 5, 10 packs. Everything changed. All of a sudden some kids (w/ generous parents) had 3 and 4 year old Mattingly, Strawberry, and Gooden rookies. One kid even had the Rated Rookie Canseco. Our innocent hobby had become something very different... BUT needless to say much more exciting at the time.

I've often wondered about the questions being asked. Will cards' demand fade over time.. specifically once my generation, the last to have collected in the same style kids had from 1914-1970, ages? Younger people may continue to be drawn by baseball's incredible history, or the obvious investment/$$$$ motivations.. But I think there'll generally lack the nostalgia of collecting with that total innocence. For me I like to think it's more that nostalgia and love for history that drives me to spend lots and lots of money now.. I have never sold a card.. Though the investment side minded side of me is always present.

ANYWAY- sorry for the long windedness.. The main point/idea I want to add, is this- I've always wondered about the demographic makeup of the current collecting population. I've come across dozens of threads surveying back variations/errors/font colors, most of which yield interesting data. I'm curious if similar data on collectors' info (age, collecting interests/goals, willingness to spend) has, or can be gathered. Most who've posted seem to think the age of collectors is a general indication of the health, and future of the hobby (more younger=better). Can we gather this data? Maybe just starting with info based on what's listed in Net54 user profiles.. Then possibly get more specific and chart.. % of different age ranges, what different ages collect or even spend in a year, will they continue, etc?? It seems like a big task, but any real data from a poll/survey could be very interesting.

[Exhibitman]

Good points again, Rich, on the cost to buy packs. This I published on my web site after the last National:

Ringside was there at a corporate booth with a box-breaking promotion: break a box of the 2010 product at their table and get an entry in a drawing for signed memorabilia. I broke down one box but didn't win anything in the drawings. As for the product itself, my feelings were mixed. The box I broke had only 40 cards in it. They were very thick (4 normal cards thick each). which is really inconvenient. Most of the cards were retired fighters, which I found disappointing. Of the 40 cards I pulled (no dupes) only two--Floyd Mayweather and Miguel Cotto--were of active fighters. As for inserts, it is just gambling, plain and simple. The final pack I opened had a "1 of 1" card of Vito Antuofermo. Not even signed. I could have cared less but the guys working the table acted like I'd pulled out a golden ticket to the Wonka factory. A dealer sitting next to me breaking down boxes of Sport Kings product invited me over to his table and bought the card for more than I paid for the entire box! I will confess that I am baffled by the insert mania of the modern card market. I totally "get" autographed cards' appeal. I even see (though do not share enthusiasm for) the appeal of fighter-worn swatch cards. But the 1 of 1 and parallel set stuff is alien to me. I just do not understand the appeal of manufactured rarity. Why is a card that was intentionally made 1 of 1 and that isn't even signed and doesn't contain any fight-worn equipment swatches worth money to anyone? It seems so contrived. As for the base product, my feeling is that if collectors are going to basically throw away the base cards, the set is a failure. And what's with all the old dudes? I'd much, much rather see a set of base cards devoted to active fighters with autographs (like the 2008 Topps Co-Signers) or fight-worn materials on each "significant" card. We also need cards at base price far below the price point of the Ringside cards. At $85 a box retail for the TKO--40 cards total spread through 10 packs--and $175 for the KO--16 cards total but guaranteed at least 2 autographs and 1 memorabilia card--the issue is way too pricey to get a casual collector interested. I had to think long and hard over buying a TKO box and even then I'd not have done it but for the drawing promotion. My trepidation was financial--even the TKO boxes, which guarantee nothing by way of insert cards, cost over $2 per card.

[Big Ben]

Interesting thread. Agree with a lot of points that have been posted especially the following in no particular order.

High entry cost for kids to get started in the hobby
Demographics
Cyclical nature of the hobby
Economy
Different sports competing for the interest of today's youth. (soccer)


Personally I left the hobby in the early 1990's as it wasn't fun anymore and I refused to pay over $1.00 per pack for new cards. lol

I returned to the hobby in 2008 as cards I have always been interested in, (pre-world war II) seemed to be decent values when found on the internet.

IMHO, some things that will help the hobby..

Internet- ie message boards
Integrity or some form of policing in the hobby--in some ways I think that card grading helps the hobby. (I realize there are some cons to grading as well)
A marquee player who can capture the nation's attention ie Jordan in the NBA
Oddly enough a return of wealthy investors purchasing high profile cards in which the purchase makes headlines.

Just my two cents on a rainy day in my area.

[joeadcock]

Ian

There were 2 particular threads in 2010 dealing with the demographics of the net54 population such as age, career, education, etc.