Are Baseball Cards Destined to Slowly Diminish in Value?

[Exhibitman]

I agree, Rich. Another related issue is the extreme difference between worthless base sets and extremely valuable chase cards. The chase has always been a factor busting a pack--I can recall the thrill of finding a Hank Aaron instead of a Hank Allen in a new pack--but it has become so much more extreme over the years. Now, you open a pack of [expensive] cards, pull the chase cards, and throw away the base cards. For example, at the Baltimore National I busted a box of cards, pulled one chase card that I was able to flip to a dealer for the cost of the box, and walked away with a stack of worthless base cards. When we were kids and Topps was the only game in town, everyone collected the set. Even a double of a common card had its use as a trader. IMO the downfall of the modern card market was the creation of the factory set and the rise of the extreme insert card. Set buyers need not work a set and pack busters received items with no use or value that they toss aside [I think we've all seen pack busters at open tables at shows leave the base cards with the empty box and wrappers and walk away; I know I have seen that].

[abothebear]

I agree about the factory sets. There is no point or economic advantage to buying packs now except for the chase cards. It is pretty much like buying a scratchers ticket, buying the chance and what is left is garbage. I was thinking the other day how easy it would be for Topps to not produce and sell the factory set. I am no business man, but I bet there would be a long term gain that would cover whatever short-term loss they'd have from not selling sets.

The only way I pick up cards for my son now is to buy "cast-off" boxes of commons. Packs are too expensive, and he's too young to care about insert cards anyway. And I can sometimes get a lot of jersey cards from ebay and make him a grab bag with an insert anyway.

We have collected rare high-grade baseball type cards and significant
memorabilia (excluding autographs,balls and equipment) for more than three decades.

In the past 5 years,75% of our significant transactions ($1500+) have emanated from one of the top twelve baseball and sports auction firms.

On average we bid on 100-150 items per year. From 2007-2009 our winning
percentage hovered between 15% and 25%. Over the past 18 months, it has risen to nearly 40%.

We attribute this to five factors

(1) Five major collectors who have left the hobby or passed away
(2) Highly priced items tend to bring out 2nd, 3rd and 4th examples
quickly and prices drop accordingly
(3) A weak economy
(4) A number of sets and items have gone out of fashion
(5) concerns about integrity in the hobby.

Within our sphere of collecting, we believe that overall prices on many items have dropped by 15-20%. We believe the hobby still has a great future, but as prices rise, it will require sophisticated (and often wealthy) collectors to maintain or increase the price levels of many of the better items.

Over the past two years, the notable exceptions to the price drop have been

T205 PSA 8 or SGC 88
Ramly PSA 7 and PSA 8
E-96- SCG 84/PSA7 and SCG 88 and PSA 8
E-97- SCG-84/PSA 7 and SCG 88 and PSA 8
Wilson Wieners 1954- PSA 8 (NQ)

Would welcome your comments.


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

[barrysloate]

Hi Bruce- good post, and welcome back!

[Rich Klein]

Your dreams were your ticket out

In all seriousness, like I say on many occassions, Bruce is absolutely correct when it comes to high end merchandise. In just about any field; the highest end merchandise is not only going to maintain it's value but will grow exponetially higher than most other items.

For the rest of us mortals, the decision is a bit harder; the odds are real good that not all the value of cards will maintain. The longer we are away from when the cards were produced; the less we care about the Jim Qualls of the world. Thus, we do need a lower Barrier To Entry (BTE) to get collectors back into the game. I'm giong to use the National as an example. I may be a couple of dollars off here but stay with my point.

In 1984, The National was hend at the no longer existing Aspen Hotel in Parsipanny NJ. There was no fee to park and admission was somewhere between $3-5. One also received a free autograph, granted the best player was Bobby Thomson with the admittance if so desired.

Nowadays, the cheapest admission to get in is $18 -- (usually Sunday about noon it does become Free) and there are advanced MVP badges which gets one double the promo sets, some free autographs, etc. I think that cost is about $150 and yes it is worth it on many levels. But just like when our pack price went from 50 cents or so in 1991 for the basic packs to whatever some of the most expenisve packs are today --- and some go past $50 -- then we are shutting out future generations which is problematic.

Yes, even when packs were cheap -- people only wanted the good cards. At the store I used to frequent in the late 80's -- people would buy the 1985 packs and if Gooden, Clemens, Big Mac, E Davis, etc did not come out -- then the rest of the cards would be left on the counter. Same principle Adam brought up about the commons from his box after he sold the "chase" card. But again, the issue is the cost of entry -- whether it is to the National or to an unopened product.

So, unless we can get future generations in at a level they can afford, the hoddy many decrease just because there are less people entering because of the price.

Regards
Rich

[vargha]

Not to cause trouble . . . okay, I'm causing trouble. But did anyone ever figure out who comprises the rest of "we"?

[theseeker]

I was going to ask the very same thing.

Gettin back to the discussion at hand:

The last, large scale hobby participation of kids is the generation now entering their early thirties. They were the first generation to enter the hobby with an eye on investment, due to the excessive greed and shortsightedness of manufacturer's and dealer's. It has forever changed the hobby landscape. A large part of the longterm decline can be traced to how those late 80's/early 90's investments turned out, IMHO. It's still a hobby. My golf clubs are a much worse investment, yet are well worth the cost to me in terms of the pleasure I derive from their use. My card collecting hobby fits into the same basic category-- one of life's pleasant deversions. A balancing act to the serious stuff.

If the opinions of the posters here, on this topic, that fall into that early thirty-something demographic group are correct and the postwar cards have a drop in value due to their lack of interest, in favor of the prewar stuff, I'll happily jump in at the reduced prices. Although I am also not old enough to remember most of the 50's, 60's, and early 70's, I see the Topps series issued era as arguably the best of all time. I'll always feel a closer kinship to this era of early TV and classic radio than I ever could for anything from 1911. Then again, I'm not looking at it as an investment and can strictly allow my passions to rule.

In your early thirties and you have no interest in cards from the 60's and 70's because "you never saw them play?" Yet, there is interest among this age group in cards from the much more distant past? Sounds like investment still is the force leading the younger generation of card collector. It is, at the heart of the matter, resembling the cautionary tulip investment tale.