Are Baseball Cards Destined to Slowly Diminish in Value?

[JLange]

...to our nation since 1980! Roughly 33% more people. Even a diminished interest in baseball / collecting cards in 50 years could potentially equate to a much larger market than today.

[Jcfowler6]

I agree Jason.

[vargha]

What about tulips? Does anyone foresee the market coming back for them?

[jrog007]

Tulips don't have Cobb, Ruth, Williams, Mantle, etc. If tulips were in the shape of those that had accomplished great things and had been the idol of thousands they might make a comeback. I don't believe that sports collectibles are invincible and not susceptible to economic decline that plagues every market from time to time, but as long as sports are an important part of the American psyche, it is hard to imagine a total collapse of the market. However, if there was a total collpase of the market, wouldn't it be awesome to be able to get all of those items that are completely out of range for a relative bargain.

[Collect Equity]

Here's my two (or maybe three) cents:

-I think that vintage pre-war will maintain value for a long-time to come. After all, it seems like a large percentage of us responding (myself included) are in our early 30s. We will continue to buy cards for at least 30 years to come. Plus, as we get older and our kids move out, we should have more disposable income. So I think vintage cards are safe to at least keep pace with inflation for 30+ years.

-I believe that currently produced limited numbered cards of key sets will be worth good money in the future. This is because all of us are watching these people play and there's something exciting about owning a rookie card of a player you've seen play. (specifically the Pujols rookies could continue to climb to crazy prices)

[parenthetical side note: are there more '52 Topps Mantles out there or Pujols Bowman Chrome cards (print run of 500)? I'd rather own a Pujols rookie in a heart beat because I never saw Mantle play and have seen Pujols (plus I am a Red Sox fan and wouldn't spend money on anything Yankees)

-I think cards from the 60s and 70s will stay stagnant or go down in price. Our generation never saw those guys play. We will either gravitate to the pre-war *old and rare is cool) or the modern, but why do I care about cards from the 1960s?

-I believe that the oddball and rare vintage cards will continue to rise the most. The internet makes it easy to research the esoteric and oddball cards that in the past were overlooked.

-I think the international market will also help. The World Baseball Classic should help to drive interest in international markets.

-I think soccer cards will actually rise in price, specifically cards of Pele from the 1950s. Globally soccer is the most popular sport and cards (or stickers from Panini) are part of this allure. Some day some American whiz kid will do for soccer cards what Tiger Woods did for golf cards (who woulda' thought that mid-80s Golf cards would be worth anything? Or an SI for Kids card?)

-In a nutshell, if you are investing you should be selective to only rare (true for both vintage and modern) and aim for a 7 year investment or less. If you are collecting then buy what you enjoy and know you will get more from your hobby some day than if your hobby was owning horses.

[mintacular]

You lost me when you tried to argue that a limited Pujols rc would be worth more than a '52 Mantle in the future...plus a bunch of other stuff you said. It's important not to project your personal preferences to the market as a whole

[yawie99]

As much as I hate to say it, I'm bearish on the hobby over the long haul. The game itself is still popular with kids, but baseball cards have almost no hold on the imagination or interest of today's children. I suppose there's hope that Pokemon and other gaming cards or even fads like Silly Bandz might prime kids for later collecting behavior, but I see little future nostalgic attachment to baseball cards. There will always be a market, of course, but I doubt that natural population growth will offset the dwindling percentage of young people that collect.