If you had $750 to spend...Cobb or Jordan

[pgellis]

One thing to think about is that Ty Cobb can no longer do anything to de-value his card.....he has passed away a long time ago.

Michael Jordan can still do something "stupid" to de-value his card.....just ask everyone holding O.J. Simpson RC cards!

[jb217676]

The iconic Jordan RC, relatively affordable and one of my favourite cards of all time! Do hope to get a nice Cobb one day though. My advice... get both!

[ls7plus]

PSA alone has graded well over 8,000 of the Jordans in NMt-Mt or better--6,028 "8"'s. Factor in those that the other grading services have graded, and the probable large amount of unopened, if this card appreciates over the long-term, it'll be like the proverbial slow boat to China. My bet is it goes down by at least 50% over the next 10-15 years, as we become more and more divorced from the time of his playing career. As another board member stated above, look at Chamberlain's '61-'62 Fleer--a far tougher card in any grade, and pretty much stagnant in value for the last 20 years, at least in NMt! In addition, Chamberlain has just as much or more claim to the title of the greatest ever in that sport (especially for those of us who actually saw him play in his prime)--50.4 points per game FOR THE ENTIRE '61-'62 SEASON, 100 POINTS IN A SINGLE GAME, AND A NUMBER OF GAMES WITH 30+ REBOUNDS AGAINST BILL RUSSELL! And if you want to factor in championships, Wilt won when he had the supporting cast, and Jordan played during an era when the NBA, in my opinion as a former devoted fan, was at its weakest--what great team did his Bulls ever beat? Not the Magic Johnson led Lakers in their prime; not the Larry Bird/Robert Parrish/Kevin McHale Celtics; and the "bad boy" Pistons only when they were on the down slide.

Buy the Cobb--if anything, his legacy seems to be significantly on the increase, and even if there are a lot of T206 Cobbs (and there are), they don't even begin to approach the almost ludicrous number of high-grade Jordans.

Just my 2 cents (half-dollar?).

Larry

[ChiefBenderForever]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

PSA alone has graded well over 8,000 of the Jordans in NMt-Mt or better--6,028 "8"'s. Factor in those that the other grading services have graded, and the probable large amount of unopened, if this card appreciates over the long-term, it'll be like the proverbial slow boat to China. My bet is it goes down by at least 50% over the next 10-15 years, as we become more and more divorced from the time of his playing career. As another board member stated above, look at Chamberlain's '61-'62 Fleer--a far tougher card in any grade, and pretty much stagnant in value for the last 20 years, at least in NMt! In addition, Chamberlain has just as much or more claim to the title of the greatest ever in that sport (especially for those of us who actually saw him play in his prime)--50.4 points per game FOR THE ENTIRE '61-'62 SEASON, 100 POINTS IN A SINGLE GAME, AND A NUMBER OF GAMES WITH 30+ REBOUNDS AGAINST BILL RUSSELL! And if you want to factor in championships, Wilt won when he had the supporting cast, and Jordan played during an era when the NBA, in my opinion as a former devoted fan, was at its weakest--what great team did his Bulls ever beat? Not the Magic Johnson led Lakers in their prime; not the Larry Bird/Robert Parrish/Kevin McHale Celtics; and the "bad boy" Pistons only when they were on the down slide.

Buy the Cobb--if anything, his legacy seems to be significantly on the increase, and even if there are a lot of T206 Cobbs (and there are), they don't even begin to approach the almost ludicrous number of high-grade Jordans.

Just my 2 cents (half-dollar?).

Larry

Great points, but 8,000 graded psa 8 really isn't that many when you think about the millions of others cards printed around the same time. Yes there are lots of unopened packs and cases but many who are 30-50 age group grew up watching Jordan play. From the winning basket at North Carolina, 84 Olympics, Slam Dunk contest, and all the championships. It was something special to see and a very special connection like all the baby boomers had with Mickey Mantle. Another factor is the world wide appeal overseas. When I sold my modern basketball collection some years ago I was shocked at all the emails I got from around the world wanting to know if they could bid, so I started putting I would ship worldwide and what a difference it made. I took chances but went by feedback and must have sent cards to 15-20 different countrys and never had a problem but did get lucky not to get ripped off. A big problem is the NBA is on the verge of collapsing and who knows if it will turn around. Another thing is a Jordan PSA 8 seems like a steal when you compare it to Lebrons 2004 exquisite RC going for $6000-10,000, Carmello $4000, Wade $3000-5000, and many many other RC well over $1000 and the players are straight garbage. Yes it is insanity but people are paying it. The main point is there seems to be a buyer for just about anything and that is what is great about the hobby. I don't see much of a downside to a Jordan RC, or a Cobb. Like Jeff said, get them both !

[teetwoohsix]

Originally Posted by pgellis

One thing to think about is that Ty Cobb can no longer do anything to de-value his card.....he has passed away a long time ago.

Michael Jordan can still do something "stupid" to de-value his card.....just ask everyone holding O.J. Simpson RC cards!

+1,,,,,,,was thinking the same thing, while I was looking at these 3 Near Mint-Mint Manny Ramirez rookie cards I thought could end up being worth something a couple of decades from now (before the PED's issue)....sheesh

[FrankWakefield]

Here in Kentucky the horses are running at Keenland, and they'll next go to Churchill Downs... so some folks are starting to think of horses.

I'm still well satisfied that ballcards aren't investments. I once read a really good article about Tulipmania in the Smithsonian magazine, I'd think it was about 40 years ago. Ballcards can go up, and back down.

Two years ago a really good "investment" would have been a $2 to win ticket on Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby, with Calvin Borel in the irons. The $2 ticket paid $103.20. DanP, that's better than you did on those mutual funds of 14 years ago, but it would have been a foolhardy investment.

[mintacular]

PSA alone has graded well over 8,000 of the Jordans in NMt-Mt or better--6,028 "8"'s----Thanks Larry that's the kind of sober analysis I need, probably better to buy this card 5-10 years from now, they'll probably be going for only a couple hundred bucks then....In terms of investment, I should not have used that term00was really trying to figure out if one had more likelyhood to hold its value.... Clearly both will be lucky to hold water and the Jordan is more likely to drop preciptously (sic). I was under the impression that the 86 basket was short-printed but apparently not so much and only compared to the other card products at that time which we all know are still being printed

[ls7plus]

Plus nearly 2200 PSA 7's and/or 7.5's to soak up some of the demand for a nice example. Jordan was truly a tremendous player and icon; its just hard to make that kind of math work in favor of $$ over the long term, especially in light of the probability that there is still a lot of ungraded/unopened out there.

I respectfully disagree with Frank on the broader issue of investment, of course. Ours is a legitimate field for collectible interest over the long term as long as baseball history and heroes are in vogue. The card connects you to the player, the set connects you to the leagues for the most part, and both take you back to the time, almost as if you had a little time machine right there in your hand. They are a "piece of the action" from back then, with the most analgous area of collecting IMO being coins. As I posted some time ago, there have been over 30 sales of coins for over $1 Million, and there are many, many coins valued at over $100K. Check back in time with the assistance of such publications as The Official Red Book: A Guide Book of United States Coins, continuosly published since 1947, or The 100 Greatest U.S. Coins, 3rd Edition, and you will see that many of these got where they are from far more humble levels, and simply compounded in value annually in the range of 10-15%. Coins have history behind them, and take one back to the time of their minting, but lack the personal element our hobby has, ie., the ability to connect one instantly to Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth or Joe Jackson in his own day, through an image they left from just an instant in their lives back then.

Of course, the same rules apply with regard to investing in coins or cards--what you want is rare and significant items, in the best grade you can find or afford. As Q. David Bowers, a very successful and articulate coin dealer for over 50 years with an extremely intuitive, analytical mind, said in the course of his prolific writings, what is common today will be common tomorrow--you can't make something that is common somehow become magically rare. Common coins, such as bright, shiny Morgan Silver Dollars, though certainly historically significant, exist in large quantity in the various mint states coins are graded in. They have been subject to roller coaster rides of up and down values, usually surging when a new hoard of unknowlegable investors come into the field from time to time, then plummeting like a rock when these transients leave. Truly rare, significant coins, however, have plowed a steady upwards course in value, largely immune to these kinds of cycles. Frank, the problem with Tulipmania was that there was a virtually unending supply of tulips, which made investing in them the equivalent of buying into a Ponzei scheme.

Of course, you've still got to pick the right cards. Certainly those cut out of the same mold as the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth (first sale I'm aware of was circa 1989(?), for just $6,000) and the T206 Wagner (Barry sold one in the late '80's for $16,000) fit the bill. The question is whether there are others emerging that will also, and as the thread re the next $100K card reveals, there are indeed others surging towards and past that mark. There are others just beginning that journey, at currently much more modest price levels. And it doesn't have to be a $100K card--one going from $400 to $8,000 over even 25 years represents an annual compound return in excess of 12%. Those cards are out there, as are the cards that are $2,000 now and will be $20,000+ later. Analyze and figure out which ones fit the bill and are much more affordable now. It's okay to buy the Jordan--just buy it because you like Jordan, and not because you think that because of his iconic status, his cards will reach stratospheric levels!

Just my $2.50 worth!

Best to everyone in their collecting,

Larry

[mintacular]

One more thing, Baseball Card Exchange one of the largest unopened wax dealers whose $'s are pretty reasonable is selling one pack '86/87 BB for $350, multiply that x 36 = $12,600 for a full wax box....Granted that is full retail but even if a full box sells for $5-10K at this time, clearly there are not hundreds/thousands of '86 Basketball wax boxes just sitting around unopened....BTW--he currently has not full boxes for sale...

[Bosox Blair]

I agree with what Larry said in this thread and thank him for throwing some numbers out there. I think many people don't fully appreciate the vast gap in "population" between pre-war cards and modern cards. Heck even '50s Topps card populations are many, many times almost any pre-war card.

Another interesting point - you picked Cobb red. I know this card is popular, but it was super-printed in T206. So you even picked Cobb's least scarce T206. Again, it is popular, so that plays into the demand side of supply and demand, but I don't think it is the smartest "investment' to buy an item with a lot of supply. Also, tobacco cards can be found in better grades than candy cards. So a low grade red Cobb is not special at all.

As an aside I saw that a PSA 3 E92 Dockman Cy Young just closed in Bagger's Auction for $545 all in. Now THAT would have been a good investment. That card in that grade usually goes $800-1000+. A VG grade is actually a mid-grade for a candy card. And that Young is at least 15 times rarer than a red Cobb in all grades.

Cheers,
Blair

[npa589]

The answer is neither.


Pick up a Rony Seikaly rookie card instead!